We wound up 1-2 on Friday's slate, but that variance is bound to happen. Regardless, we're onto Saturday when aces will be wild, and many of them are being undervalued.
See which aces have value on them as we dive into our top MLB player props for Saturday, July 20.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, July 20
- Cristopher Sanchez over 17.5 outs (-129, BetRivers)
- Dylan Cease over 5.5 strikeouts (-115, bet365)
- Pablo Lopez over 5.5 strikeouts (-152, BetRivers)
We kick things off in Pittsburgh, where Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for the Phillies and Game 2 of the "Battle for Pennsylvania." Sanchez is fresh off a highly efficient All-Star appearance, and we should see more of the same in this outing.
Sanchez has become one of the game's best ground-ball artists. His ground-ball rate sits in the 97th percentile, and that has been his key to working deeper into games this season.
Getting quick outs via the ground-ball has allowed Sanchez to pitch at least six innings in 56% of his starts this season, including seven of his last ten. He is primed to mow down the Pirates, who have the third-highest ground rate in baseball and are 22nd in wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Backing Sanchez to throw six quality innings is a strong start to our card.
Next, we head to Cleveland, where Dylan Cease will toe the slab for the Padres. Cease has shown that he can be lights out at times, and he'll need to be against a stout Guardians lineup.
Cleveland is certainly a tough matchup for any starter. It puts the ball in play a ton and have done so with much more authority this season. However, its rank of 29th in strikeout rate has driven Cease's strikeout total too low.
Even while regressing a bit over the last two months, Cease is still one of the game's best when it comes to racking up strikeouts. He sits in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate and 93rd in whiff rate.
Cease has the tools to go over this total, even in the toughest of matchups. After all, he's eclipsed this number in 75% of his starts this season while averaging 7.5 strikeouts per outing.
Our last stop will be in Minnesota, where Pablo Lopez isn't getting enough love as he's set to take the mound at home. Lopez may enter this outing with a 5.11 ERA, but he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers this season, as his xERA and FIP are nearly two full runs lower.
It's safe to say that Lopez is due for a lot of positive regression in the second half, and it should begin tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite the bad luck, Lopez has generated strikeouts this season, ranking in the 84th percentile in strikeout rate.
He has a sneaky-good matchup in Milwaukee. On the season, it ranks 13th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but it's had the highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties over the last two weeks.
This lines up as a potential smash spot for Lopez, whose strikeout total is set too low at 5.5. He has surpassed this number in 63% of his starts this year and 64% of his last 85 starts.
