The dog days of summer are upon us, but there is plenty of value in the player prop market to help us get through them. I've got three starting pitchers in my sights this Saturday.
So, let's dive into my MLB player props for Saturday, August 10.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props (Saturday, Aug. 10)
- Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155, DraftKings)
- Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155, DraftKings)
- Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150, bet365)
Athletics vs Blue Jays MLB Player Prop: Fade Oakland's Offense
We kick things off north of the border, where Yariel Rodriguez is set to take the mound against the Oakland Athletics. The A's have been a team to pick on when it comes to strikeout props, as they hold the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors against right-handed pitching.
We have seen Rodriguez thrive this season against high-strikeout teams, as some of his best outings have come against the Colorado Rockies and Seattle Mariners. However, we've also seen his strikeout upside against teams that don't strike out much, like the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Overall, Rodriguez has been solid when healthy this season, and we should see him cruise against this A's lineup.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks MLB Player Prop: Aaron Nola Listed at Discounted Price
Next, we head west, where we have a 2023 NLCS rematch as the Philadelphia Phillies are taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The pitching matchup is also playoff-worthy, as Aaron Nola will square off against Zac Gallen.
However, we are going to focus on Nola as he's due for positive regression and is being discounted against a red-hot Diamondbacks lineup. The Diamondbacks are the No. 1 team in wRC+ against righties over the past 15 days and rank 26th in strikeout rate during that span.
Although, they will have to contend with Nola, who holds a strikeout rate of 28.3% over his last six starts. Nola has been pitching much better of late, and strikeouts have been a part of his success.
Despite the tough matchup, we should expect him to deliver again and go over his deflated strikeout total. Nola has gone over this total in 65% of his starts this season and 79% of his last 96 starts.
This season's hit rate gives us implied odds of -186, so the current price at DraftKings is undoubtedly worth buying.
Pirates vs Dodgers MLB Player Prop: Trust Paul Skenes
Lastly, we turn to one of the game's brightest young stars, Paul Skenes. Skenes will take the mound tonight at Chavez Ravine and take on a scuffling Dodgers lineup.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been riddled with injuries this year, and it has begun to impact their offensive production. The Dodgers come into this matchup 22nd in wRC+ over the last 15 days, and what's worse, they hold the second-highest strikeout rate against righties during that span as well.
Those are numbers that Paul Skenes should feast against, as the rookie phenom has been nearly untouchable. His strikeout rate sits in the 94th percentile, and batters have not done much when they have put the ball in play against him.
This will be the second time the Dodgers will see Skenes, as he put together a solid outing against them back in May. Then he struck out eight over five innings while allowing three runs.
Overall, his total is too low for his past production and this matchup. He's struck out at least seven batters in 11 of 14 big league starts.
