Despite Jose Quintana's rough outing yesterday, we still managed to come out on top. Now, we must ride the momentum into Saturday's action. I've got three arms that will help us do that.
Let's dive into our MLB player props for Saturday, May 4, featuring picks for three starting pitchers on today's slate — Clarke Schmidt, Paul Blackburn, and Logan Gilbert.
MLB Player Props Saturday (May 4)
- Clarke Schmidt Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Paul Blackburn Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 Outs (-155 at bet365)
If you've been reading my articles this year, you know that I have consistently picked on New York Yankees' starter Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt has outperformed his expectations this season, but the regression monster is bound to catch up to him.
Today, it should be against the Tigers' lineup, which is due for significant positive regression. Detroit's xBA is 16 points higher than their current team batting average, while Clarke's xERA is over an entire run higher than his actual ERA.
The Tigers are primed to do damage against Schmidt, and the traffic on the basepaths will limit his length and strikeout upside in this game. Detroit ranks 10th in team strikeout rate, but the numbers show that Schmidt eclipsing this number in the past has been an outlier.
He has gone under this total in 26 of his last 36 starts. That 72% hit rate equates to implied odds of -257 that he will go under again this afternoon.
Our next stop will be in Oakland, where Paul Blackburn will take the ball for the Oakland Athletics. Blackburn has been excellent this year and should have success in this matchup, but this play is about fading him at a number that has shown to be key historically.
Blackburn is not a high strikeout pitcher, nor does he have a great matchup today against the Miami Marlins, who rank 24th in team strikeout rate. However, we have seen Blackburn reach the five-strikeout mark in 51% of his last 47 starts.
However, getting to six has been an issue. Blackburn has recorded six strikeouts in just 12 innings in the same 47-start span. That means he has gone under 74% of the time.
Given the matchup, this is a significant edge to jump on, as his implied odds of going under are -285. It also helps that our Action Labs projections love this under, as they have him slated for just 4.5 strikeouts.
We are going back to well and backing another Seattle Mariners starter to throw six solid innings against the Houston Astros. George Kirby executed too well last night and cruised through six. Well, the next man in line has an even better track record of getting the job done.
Logan Gilbert is a young horse on the mound for the Mariners, and he's off to an incredible start in 2024. Gilbert has a 2.02 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through his first six starts.
Like Kirby, Gilbert fills the zone and generates quick outs, but he's shown more strikeout upside. Regardless, he's been a consistent source of innings in his young career, going six innings in 61% of his 71 career starts.
That hit rate is in line with the current price, but Gilbert is rolling this year, and we may not see his price this low for much longer. Take the value while you can.
