We got a little too cute with our stolen base prop yesterday as Victor Scott failed to even reach base. So, for today's MLB player prop picks, we are going to target the men on the mound, and there are some big ideas we can capitalize on.
So, let's meet the men as part of our top three MLB player props for Saturday, March 30.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, March 30
Kyle Hendricks is set to begin his 10th season in the big leagues, and "The Professor" is coming off a bounce-back campaign in 2023. However, the one thing that did not bounce back was the strikeouts.
Hendricks had a career-low 16.1% strikeout rate in 2023, but that did not limit his success. What his lack of strikeouts last season has done is create value on his over in this outing.
He recorded at least four strikeouts in 63% of his starts last season. That gives us implied odds of -170 that he will go over again tonight.
Plus, he faces the defending World Series champions, the Texas Rangers, who were slightly above average in terms of strikeout rate last year and have plenty of holes Hendricks can capitalize on if he gets through the order twice.
Buy the dip.
Pick: Kyle Hendricks Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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Now, we will turn our attention to one of baseball's most thrilling parts: the walk. While walks are not glamorous, they are a profitable bet to make, especially against Tommy Henry of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Walks have been an issue in Henry's young career, and even though he improved his rate by 1% last year, he still managed to clear this mark 65% of the time in 2023. His tendency to give out free passes will counteract the Colorado Rockies' walk rate, which was the fourth-lowest in baseball this season.
We've seen that be the case already, as Henry has exceeded this mark in two of his three career starts against Colorado and has allowed at least one free pass in each of those outings.
At this price, this is one of the most substantial edges on the board, as we have implied odds of -186 in our favor.
Pick: Tommy Henry Over 1.5 Walks (-115)
The punch outs were racking up in the first game of this series last night. Nick Pivetta and George Kirby combined for 18 strikeouts as they dueled into the seventh inning.
However, tonight, we should see some regression in that category with Kutter Crawford on the mound. Crawford is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, as he held a 3.25 xERA last season and improved his strikeout rate by 2.5%.
His success in 2023 has inflated his first strikeout line here. He went under this total in 16 of his 23 starts last season, which equates to a hit rate of 69% and implied odds of -223.
This under is also one of the top plays on the slate, as our Action Labs projections have him slated for just 5.1 strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Kutter Crawford Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
