We continued our winning ways on Friday, with two out of three selections cashing. However, we are not stopping there, as I've found three more arms that will help us stay hot on Saturday.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Saturday, July 13 — featuring picks for Spence Arrighetti, Kutter Crawford, and Hayden Birdsong.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, July 13
- Spence Arrighetti under 5.5 strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
- Kutter Crawford under 18.5 outs (-148, BetRivers)
- Hayden Birdsong under 5.5 strikeouts (-127, BetRivers)
Spencer Arrighetti has been a guy we've faded numerous times this season in the walk category. His shaky command has made him a cash cow towards the over.
However, today, we're fading him in the strikeout department. While Arrighetti has good stuff, his lack of command is bound to put him in bad counts against a Texas Rangers lineup that will make him work.
The Rangers are 26th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and have finally begun to heat up as a team. Texas comes into this matchup third in wRC+ against righties over their last 15 games.
Aside from the matchup, a closer look at Arrighetti shows he's overachieved at times with strikeouts. Yes, he's gone over this in half of his starts, but his CSW and swinging strike rate are below average, which points to him not generating whiffs against a veteran lineup like the one he'll see today.
Next, we head to Boston, where Kutter Crawford is set to take the mound against the Kansas City Royals. Kutter has been tremendous this season, as he enters with a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
However, he's getting too much respect this afternoon against a solid Royals lineup. The Royals are tough against righties as they rank 6th in wRC+ over their last 15 games and have the lowest strikeout rate against righties in that same span.
With a matchup this tough, it's puzzling that Crawford's out total is this high. However, it will work to our advantage, as Crawford has gone under this total in 16 of his 19 starts this season.
Since arriving in the big leagues, San Francisco Giants rookie Hayden Birdsong has been very consistent in the strikeout department. He has recorded five strikeouts in each of his first three major league starts.
However, he's due for a bit of regression in that department, and his matchup tonight is likely to bring it upon him. Birdsong will be up against the Minnesota Twins, who have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in their last 30 games.
Additionally, Birdsong's strikeout rate is not evident of his ability to generate swings and misses. While his strikeout rate is above average through three starts, his CSW is in the bottom 20 percent of the league, and his swing strike rate is below average as well.
Fade the rookie in his toughest matchup yet.
