We brought out the brooms yesterday, and our sweep of the board puts us at 6-1 dating back to Friday. Now, we are in a great position to finish the week strong, and three starting pitchers on today's slate are going to help us do just that.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Sunday, May 19 — featuring bets for Corbin Burnes, Aaron Civale, and Jameson Taillon.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, May 19
- Corbin Burnes Over 17.5 Outs (-130)
- Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+135)
- Jameson Taillon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Corbin Burnes has been the workhorse at the top of the rotation that the Baltimore Orioles needed. He enters this start with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, but he's in line to improve those numbers this afternoon.
Burnes will be up against a Seattle Mariners lineup that has yet to get it going. The Mariners are a tad below league average in wRC+, and they lead the majors in strikeout rate.
Seattle has plenty of holes in their order, and we know Burnes is going to fill up the zone. The Mariners' propensity to whiff should help him carve up this lineup rather quickly.
In addition to the matchup, Burnes has exceeded this total in six of his first nine starts in Baltimore, which translates into a 67% hit rate over his last 75 starts overall.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -203, which means that he will finish the sixth inning again this afternoon.
Next, we head north of the border, where Aaron Civale is being undervalued against the Toronto Blue Jays. Civale enters this start with a 5.83 ERA, but he has pitched much better than that, as his xERA is 3.61.
A big part of his underlying success has come from his ablity to generate strikeouts. Civale's strikeout rate of 24.6 percent ranks in the 65th percentile and is the highest rate of his career.
While he does have a tough matchup against a Blue Jays order that boasts the third-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors, Civale has shown that he can surpass this total.
He has recorded at least five strikeouts in six of his first nine starts his season and in 55% of his last 53 starts. Our Action Labs projections show decent value on this over as they have Civale slate for 4.7 strikeouts.
Jameson Taillon has been nasty through his first five starts. He boasts a 1.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but his success comes from generating a ton of soft contact.
Taillon has excelled at making his pitches look like strikes out of his hand, as his chase rate sits in the 81st percentile. However, even with batters swinging at bad pitches, they are putting the ball into play.
Taillon ranks in the ninth percentile in whiff rate and the 11th in strikeout rate. His fastball-heavy arsenal allows him to work efficiently, and he does not need strikeouts to succeed.
So, even in a matchup against the team with the sixth-highest strikeout rate, this total is far too high. He has gone under this total in four of his five starts this season and 68% of his last 68 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -213, which provides us with great value on the current price.
