We got back to our winning ways yesterday, pulling even at 3-3 heading into Sunday's slate. We are poised to finish strong, as I've got three more starters showing value this afternoon.
Let's dive into our top MLB player props for Sunday, July 21, including bets for Marcus Stroman in Rays-Yankees, Michael King in Padres-Guardians, and Andrew Heaney in Orioles-Rangers.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, July 21
- Marcus Stroman Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110, BetRivers)
- Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125, bet365)
- Andrew Heaney Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155, DraftKings)
After Nestor Cortes' clunker of an outing on Saturday, the Yankees are going to need some depth on Sunday to avoid overworking their bullpen. Fortunately, they have the man for the job in Marcus Stroman.
Even at age 33, Stroman has proven to be one of the game's best groundball artists. His groundball rate sits in the 84th percentile, which is a significant factor in why he's able to work deep into games.
Stroman also has a great matchup to capitalize on as well. The Rays don't hit righties nearly as well as they hit lefties, and they hold the eighth-highest groundball rate in the majors.
All signs are pointing towards Stroman working into the sixth. That has been the case more often than not this season, as he's recorded at least 16 outs in 63% of his starts this year.
On Saturday, we were on Dylan Cease, who was being undervalued against the Guardians. Cease crushed his total by doubling it with the strikeouts.
For Sunday, we have a similar case as the Padres hand the ball to Michael King. King has been a challenging puzzle to solve for opposing hitters, as he can miss bats at a high rate but also generate soft contact in the process.
King's strikeout rate sits in the 84th percentile when entering this outing, yet his listed total is two strikeouts below his average. King averages 6.5 strikeouts per outing, and the Guardians are 29th in strikeout rate against righties.
However, Cease proved that Cleveland is not immune to striking out in bunches, and King should have similar success on Sunday. His work also shows that this total is far too low, as he's surpassed it in 80% of his 19 starts this season.
Lastly, we head to Texas, where Andrew Heaney is getting a tad too much love going up against the Baltimore Orioles. Yes, Heaney has been solid for the better part of the year, but he's still averaging just one strikeout per inning.
This afternoon, he takes on an Orioles lineup that has seen the ball well from lefties. They rank fourth in wRC+ against them on the year and 22nd in strikeout rate over the last 15 days.
Additionally, Heaney has not proven he can surpass this total consistently. He has gone under it in 12 of his 19 starts this season. That 63% hit rate gives us implied odds of -170, which is a clear edge.
