Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful moms out there, and if you're still looking for a gift, I've got you covered. Our top MLB player props will help line your pocket in time for you to grab a gift before dinner.
So, as time is of the essence, let's dive into my top three bets for Sunday.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, May 12
- Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
- Brayan Bello Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Justin Verlander Under 17.5 Outs (+130)
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles
Brayan Bello will return from the injured list this afternoon, but the oddsmakers are not giving him much credit. His strikeout total is just 3.5, and Bello has proven that number to be far too low in his young career.
While the matchup against the Washington Nationals may factor in a bit, the Nationals whiff much more than they did last year. They come into this matchup ranking 19th in team strikeout rate.
As for Bello, the strikeouts were racking up for him prior to his IL stint, and he's averaging a strikeout per inning this season. A big reason is his improvement in his slider, as he's added nearly two inches of break on it, and the whiff rate on that pitch is up six percent.
In addition to Bello and his matchup, history shows this number is far too low. He's surpassed this total in 72% of his 44 career starts. That gives us implied odds of -257 and a massive edge on the current price.
Nationals vs. Red Sox
Zac Gallen has been tough to figure out this year for both opposing figures and us handicappers. His ERA sits at 2.84, but he ranks in the bottom five percent amongst all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate.
What's been saving him this season is his ability to generate strikeouts. Gallen's strikeout rate sits in the 74th percentile, and he will need to generate swings and misses this afternoon against the Baltimore Orioles.
We know how potent this Orioles lineup can be, but they are not immune to striking out. The Orioles are 17th in team strikeout rate, right around the league average.
However, we know that Gallen is above average when it comes to strikeouts, and his total this afternoon is mispriced. Gallen has gone over his total in five of his seven starts this season and that adds to a rate of 56% of his last 77 starts.
That 56% hit rate equates to implied odds of -127, so getting this number at plus money is a steal. In addition, our Action Labs projections agree with Gallen's slated for 6.1 strikeouts.
Astros vs. Tigers
It appears that time has begun to catch up to Justin Verlander. After getting a late start to the season due to injury, the 41-year-old righty has not looked sharp through his first four starts of the season.
His strikeout rate is down over five percent, and his walk rate is up nearly 4%. Those two things are a recipe for disaster for any pitcher, as his command issues have hurt both in and outside of the zone.
This afternoon, he'll face one of his former teams, the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are a team that strikes out quite a bit, but they are also due for sizable positive regression.
If Detroit can be patient, it's likely that Verlander will work himself into trouble, and that's where they'll capitalize. This should ultimately send Verlander to the showers early.
