Yesterday was a success, as we swept the board and cashed each rung of the Luis Castillo ladder. However, we must end the week strong this Sunday.
Games start bright and early, so let's dive right into our top three MLB player props for Sunday, April 21 featuring picks and predictions for a trio of starting pitchers — Luis Gil, Jose Soriano, and Chris Bassitt.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, April 21
Lastly, we are targeting a crafty veteran, Chris Bassit, who takes on the San Diego Padres this afternoon. The Padres are getting too much respect against Bassitt, who is admittedly showing signs of regression in his age-35 season.
However, his command has been the worst in his entire career, and I expect that to level out as his walk rate is nearly four percent higher than his career average. His command issues have also caused a ton of loud contact as his mistakes have been punished, but that should also improve with his impending positive regression.
The one thing that has not changed with his drop off in command is his ability to strike hitters out. Bassitt has been a model of consistency when it comes to getting punchouts as his strikeout rate has been the same for the last three seasons.
Over the last three years, he has averaged 5.5 strikeouts per start, and it's hard to fade that consistency, especially when you're getting a great price. Bassitt has gone over this total in 68% of his last 68 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -213, which is a value we cannot pass up.
Pick: Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
We get things started in the Bronx, where young flamethrower Luis Gil will take the ball for the Yankees. Gil's stuff has been as advertised.
He's been nearly untouchable, as his strikeout rate ranks in the 90th percentile, but the contact metrics against him are even better. Gil's issue has been command.
While batters have had a tough time making contact, many do not need to when reaching base, as his walk rate is the highest in the game. This combination of strikeouts, walks, and deep counts has severely limited the depth he's able to give the Yankees in his outings.
This afternoon, he will face a veteran Tampa Bay Rays team that is typically aggressive. However, they know the scouting report, and we should see them make Gil work for his outs.
Take the under, as Gil is not built to work deep into ballgames.
Pick: Luis Gil Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-160)
We go from one fireballer to another. Jose Soriano will make his third start of the season for the Angels today against the Cincinnati Reds. Soriano has burst onto the scene with electric stuff, but much like Gil above, command has limited his upside thus far.
Soriano has a great matchup to rack up strikeouts, as the Reds have the fifth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors. However, they also have the sixth-highest team walk rate.
Cincy's lineup has free-swinging holes that Soriano can retire, but he'll also have to deal with plenty of savvy bats. While Soriano certainly has a high strikeout upside in this matchup, his mistakes could cost him dearly in the Great American Ban Box, and the walks will only amplify them.
Plus, this number is priced about 40 cents higher at all other books, so we're getting tremendous value here.
Pick: Jose Soriano Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
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