Thursday could be the penultimate day with multiple games of the entire MLB season as the Phillies and Diamondbacks resume their NLCS series at 5:07 p.m. ET in Phoenix and the Astros and Rangers play a crucial Game 4 in Arlington at 8:07 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia leads the series 2-0 after two comfortable victories at home, but Arizona returns home where the Diamondbacks have played just one of their seven playoff games thus far.
The road team is undefeated in the ALCS after Cristian Javier and the Astros beat up on Max Scherzer's Rangers to cut the series deficit to 2-1 on Wednesday night. Game 4 should be a mix and match pitching look for both ball clubs, but there's still value to be had in the pitching props market.
Here's how I'd look to bet all four starters on Thursday.
Phillies at Diamondbacks Game 3
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 9 -115o / -105u | -122 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 9 -115o / -105u | +104 |
Ranger Suárez (LHP) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Ranger Suárez
Ranger Suárez's playoff record in the last two seasons is quite stellar. He's pitched 23 1/3 innings as both a starter and reliever and has allowed 13 hits and just three earned runs.
His 1.16 ERA isn't sustainable when you consider his 3.72 FIP, but Suárez has consistently made big pitches in key high-leverage situations to induce weak contact and escape jams.
With that being said, Suárez has had real command issues for most of the 2023 regular season and now faces a patient Arizona lineup that chases pitches outside of the strike zone at one of the five lowest rates in MLB.
Suárez pitched twice against Atlanta in the NLDS, but neither was a conventional start because of the short series and Rob Thomson's plan to aggressively use the bullpen. He wasn't going to face more than 14 hitters in Game 1 and wouldn't see more than 18 in Game 2.
With Corbin Carroll batting left-handed, the Phillies up 2-0 and about to play potentially three games in three days, the Phillies will have Suárez on a longer leash in Game 3.
As a result, I'm betting Suárez over 1.5 walks allowed. He went over this number in 12 of his final 13 regular season starts. The Diamondbacks have the lowest swinging strike rate in MLB this season, which means they'll be able to foul off a lot of pitches and force Suárez to run deep counts on Thursday.
Suárez had a 10% walk rate against righties this season and most of the Arizona lineup is filled with patient righties.
Bet: Ranger Suárez Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
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Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt was a considerably improved pitcher in the second half of the season. But with Arizona down 0-2 in the series and all of Torey Lovullo's high-leverage pitchers rested for this must-win game, you have to wonder what his usage will really be in this start.
The Phillies have four lefties in their lineup, batting first, third, fifth and eighth. I don't think Lovullo would use one of his two high-leverage lefties for Bryson Stott or Brandon Marsh the second time through the lineup, but I would be genuinely shocked if Lovullo lets Pfaadt face Kyle Schwarber a third time in this game.
Even when Pfaadt pitched well against the Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS, Lovullo was quick to pull him before he faced anyone three times.
That maxes Pfaadt at 18 hitters faced in Game 3. Pfaadt had problems with homers all year long, but the Arizona right-hander had a .299 OBP allowed since he came back from the minors in July. He also struck out more than one batter per inning and posted a 4.22 ERA.
The primary improvement came in his Location+ data, per FanGraphs. That helped him cut down the walks.
Facing an aggressive Philadelphia lineup that likes to swing early in counts, I'm not sure how many strikeouts he'll manage. But the only look for Pfaadt is his over outs. If he gets 18, you're betting he can retire 12 of them and complete four innings.
At -125, I'll pass, but if the market moves down to -110, I'd bet Pfaadt over 11.5 outs recorded.
Verdict: Lean Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (Best price -125 at Caesars)
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Astros at Rangers Game 4
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
José Urquidy (RHP) vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP)
José Urquidy
It's clear from the performance and leash in Minnesota that José Urquidy has earned the trust of manager Dusty Baker, but the circumstances of this start are a bit different.
The Astros were ahead in that series 2-1 and were leading 3-1 in the game for most of his outing. Urquidy pitched well for the most part, but this is a difficult matchup for him against a Texas lineup that has had a lot of success against his type of fastball.
He had major problems keeping the ball in the yard against this Texas lineup in 2022, and he has not faced the Rangers in 2023. Given that the Astros are now down in the series, Baker might have to be more aggressive with the hook in this game. He has both J.P. France and Hunter Brown as potential middle relief, multiple inning options.
Urquidy almost certainly won't face Marcus Semien three times, but with his outs prop at 11.5, 18 batters might be enough for him to go over that number. His strikeout profile dropped off a cliff in the regular season too, and I'm not going to overreact to one good strikeout start against a high swing-and-miss Twins lineup.
There's no clear signal on Urquidy from a stuff, usage or effectiveness perspective that shows any value on betting his pitching props. If his outs over 11.5 price dropped, I'd consider going over, but I don't have much faith in his effectiveness in this matchup to even trust that.
Urquidy props are a pass for me.
Verdict: Pass
Andrew Heaney
Andrew Heaney has made one start in the 2023 playoffs, on the road in Game 1 against the Orioles in the ALDS. He pitched quite well with 3 2/3 innings completed (11 outs), two hits and one earned run allowed.
Despite his pitching well, the Rangers stuck to their plan and didn't let him face more than 14 batters. When you consider how the Astros are likely to set up their lineup for Game 4, it's likely Heaney has a pretty hard cap of 14 batters once again.
If Yordan Alvarez bats third and Kyle Tucker is fifth, it's reasonable to assume that Bruce Bochy will let Heaney go once through the order. And if things go well, he'll see Alvarez and Tucker a second time.
If he's really efficient, he'll go over this number by recording 12 outs in 14 batters. But if the top of the fourth comes around and there are righties waiting to bat for Houston with runners on base beyond Tucker, I expect Bochy to flip the lineup and turn to either a righty high-leverage reliever or use piggyback partner Dane Dunning there.
The Astros' lineup has crushed left-handed pitching for multiple years now because their lefties are good at facing same-handed pitching and the top righties have mashed. Heaney has good stuff, but his lingering home run problem makes him a high risk to go deep here.
I'd bet Heaney under 11.5 outs.
Bet: Andrew Heaney Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (-120 at BetMGM)
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