Trea Turner has been one of the hottest hitters over the last few weeks, while Justin Steele has regained his 2023 All-Star form, despite the fact that his team has helped him earn just one win.
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has had one of the best first halves we’ve ever seen, even by his own standards. What is one thing all of these players have in common? I’ll be backing them tonight.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Thursday, July 11 — featuring picks for Turner, Steele, and Judge.
MLB Player Props: Thursday, July 11
- Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145, DraftKings)
- Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-113, FanDuel)
- Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Walks (+125, BetMGM)
In this matchup of the NL's best, the Phillies have taken the first two games of this series while outscoring the Dodgers 14-4. In particular, Trea Turner has not been particularly welcoming to his former teammates. In the first two games of the series, Turner is 5-for-8 with five runs batted in, the majority coming on a grand slam on Tuesday night.
On a hot night in Philadelphia, Turner joins Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber as players all +215 or shorter to hit a home run on DraftKings. However, Turner is +320 to leave the yard on FanDuel tonight.
Turner may use a long ball to collect at least two total bases tonight, but that also may not be necessary. Turner has a hit in 12 of his past 15 games, including eight with two hits, which is +155 on DraftKings tonight.
In that span, he is hitting .365 with five home runs, 16 runs batted in, and a 1.070 OPS. Turner has recorded two total bases in 10 of his last 15 games. Since joining the Phillies, he has a hit in each of his last eight games against the Dodgers, clearing this line in six of them.
Tonight, Turner will face rookie right-hander Landon Knack, who has enjoyed a strong start with a 2.86 ERA thus far. However, he allowed three home runs in his last start and has now allowed five long balls, four doubles, and a .782 OPS to right-handed hitters.
Additionally, Knack has a 46.8% Fly Ball Rate. While he has found success so far, his proclivity to relying fly ball outs may get him in trouble at Citizens Bank Park tonight. Whether it is via two hits, a double, or home run, Turner may be one of that Phillies' hitters to take advantage tonight.
Like the Phillies, the Cubs will be going for a sweep of the Orioles. Justin Steele will give them to do so, but I prefer backing his Ks opposed to him recording a win. Pitchers were announced for the All-Star Game on Sunday and if not for an IL stint, Steele would likely be on his way to Texas next week. Over his last 10 starts, he has a 2.59 ERA, 2.93 FIP, and .199 opposing batting average allowed. In that span, he is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per start.
Steele is coming off his first career complete game last Friday against the Angels. Though he needed nine innings for seven strikeouts, he has averaged a strikeout per inning over his last 10 starts.
In that span, he has pitched at least six innings in eight of those starts. As a result, he has recorded six strikeouts in six of his last 10 starts, nine of his last 15 starts, and 21 of his last 30 starts dating back to last season. Remarkably, he has been hooked on five strikeouts in six of the nine times that he has stayed under this line.
He has a difficult assignment tonight against an Orioles team that will be motivated having lost three of their last four games. However, Baltimore is eighth in strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching. Left-hander Shota Imanaga had six strikeouts in six innings on Tuesday while Jameson Taillon had seven in six innings last night.
Six of the last nine starters Baltimore has faced has gone over their strikeout lines with all but Mitch Spence recording at least six strikeouts. Steele's outs recorded line is juiced to -200 tonight. If he does go six innings tonight, he will likely record six strikeouts.
When you think about anyone hitting home runs on a nightly basis, Aaron Judge is typically one of the first hitters to come to mind. Judge leads the MLB with 32 home runs and is the only player with 30 or more so far this season. His lone hit in four plate appearances against Shane Baz was also a home run. Another one ended in a walk, which Baz could issue again tonight either out of respect for Judge or lack of command.
In his first start in nearly two years since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Baz walked just one batter in six innings. However, he walked 23 batters in 39 1/3 innings in 10 starts in Triple-A this season. Baz's walks line is at 2.5 tonight at -110 odds, a line that typically has plus odds. For reference, Albert Suarez is +135 and Luis Medina is +130 for over 2.5 walks tonight.
Two of the more likely walk candidates for the Yankees tonight are Juan Soto and Judge. Soto leads the MLB with 77 walks while Judge is second with 64 himself. Judge has drawn a walk in 49 of 91 games (54%) this season, most recently on Tuesday.
Judge may have gotten off to a cold start to July, but he will still be pitched carefully. That is certainly the case with the Yankees' revolving door of cleanup hitters of late. With that in mind, because this is a pre-game prop, this prop would win if Judge is intentionally walked.
A few weeks back, I backed Judge to be walked and he cashed, but the odds were -140 that night. Plus-odds could prove too favorable here if Baz struggles with control again.
