For tonight's slate, there are three hitters I like: Esmerlyn Valdez, Victor Mesa Jr. and Alex Bregman.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Tuesday, July 21.
MLB Player Props Today
- Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-105, DraftKings)
- Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+168, DraftKings)
- Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, FanDuel)
Pirates vs Yankees Props
I backed Valdez in yesterday's column, and he homered in the third inning to give the Pirates a 5-4 lead they were unable to hold on to. Given how hot he has been of late, there's little reason not to run him back tonight.
Valdez has cleared this line in eight straight and nine of his last games. He has recorded four hits, runs and runs batted in six times in his last seven games.
His power surge has carried him and earned him the cleanup spot in the Pirates lineup. Valdez has homered six times in his last eight games, with seven homers in total during that stretch.
He has 13 home runs in the first 108 at-bats, seven against left-handers and six against right-handers.
Though not as high as his video game numbers against left-handers, Valdez has handled himself well with a .905 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Tonight, he gets Will Warren, who has given up 14 home runs this season, seven of them in his last five starts. Of the 14 homers, just five have been against right-handed hitters. However, he has allowed a 40% hard-hit percentage and a 90.2 mph average exit velocity.
When Valdez gets enough ABs to qualify, he will be among the league leaders in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. He is +320 for another home run tonight and will have a good opportunity for another tonight should the weather hold.
Pick: Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Rays vs Blue Jays Props
The Rays will be rooting for Valdez as well, as they look to extend their lead over the Yankees. However, they have a hot young player in their own right in Victor Mesa Jr.
The 24-year-old has recorded an extra-base hit in six of his last seven games. Of those six hits, five have been home runs, accounting for five of his eight home runs this season.
Last night, he homered for the third consecutive game.
Tonight, Mesa Jr. will face Kevin Gausman, who has struggled since the beginning of June.
Over his last eight starts, Gausman is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and nine home runs allowed. Though he has not allowed a home run in his last two starts, he has still given up 10 runs and seven earned runs between them.
Gausman is below average in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. He has a higher OPS allowed to right-handed hitters, but he has been hurt more by extra-base hits against lefties, with 12 doubles, two triples and six home runs allowed.
Mesa is hitting .218, so I would not expect a multi-hit game here. However, should he connect, it will likely be for extra bases, and he is +224 for an extra-base hit and +581 for another home run tonight.
Pick: Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
Tigers vs Cubs Props
Alex Bregman has a hit in four of his last six games and has recorded two total bases in each of those games.
Though I don't like him as much as Valdez or Mesa for a home run tonight, he does have three in his last six games. He is +630 for another home run tonight.
Over the course of his career, Bregman has seen a slight bump against left-handers, hitting .278 with a .850 OPS against them.
Tonight, he faces former teammate Framber Valdez, who played with him for several seasons in Houston. Valdez is back in the Tigers rotation after being placed on the bereavement list.
In his final start before the All-Star break, Valdez allowed just one earned run in seven innings while striking out nine. However, that is actually why I want to fade him.
Valdez's first season in Detroit has been inconsistent, as he has allowed four earned runs in five of his last 10 starts, often alternating between a good and rough outing.
With him starting against David Peterson, I like the over (8.5) after the teams combined for 14 runs in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field last night.
Bregman was a factor with two hits and two runs scored last night, and I like his chances to contribute once again.
Pick: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases
MLB Player Props for Tuesday, July 21
- Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-105, DraftKings)
- Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+168, DraftKings)
- Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, FanDuel)
