Another day, another batch of MLB player props for Tuesday, September 17.
The Dodgers salvaged a split in Atlanta with wins on Sunday and Monday. Lately, they have gotten an unexpected source of offense from the newly acquired Tommy Edman. He'll be one of my MLB prop targets on Tuesday to go along with Casey Mize and Michael King.
Let's dive into my Tuesday MLB player props.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props: Tuesday, Sept. 17
- Tommy Edman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, DraftKings)
- Casey Mize Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130, DraftKings)
- Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Dodgers vs Marlins Player Props: Back Tommy Edman
In Tommy Edman's last three years with the Cardinals, he hit 37 home runs total, with 13 in each of the last two years. Edman did not debut this season until he was traded to the Dodgers. As a result, he likely will not reach 13 home runs again with just two weeks left in the regular season.
However, if his past week continues, it cannot be entirely ruled out.
Over the past week, Edman is hitting .348 with eight hits in 23 at-bats. Five of the eight hits have home runs, and two have been doubles. He homered twice in consecutive games against the Cubs last week.
Edman is +900 for a home run on FanDuel in this game, though LoanDepot Park is not one of my favorite parks for targeting home runs.
Fortunately, Edman and the Dodgers can face the Marlins pitching staff, which enters the series with a 4.70 ERA. Darren McCaughan will get the start tonight, and he enters with a 7.06 ERA, a .336 opposing batting average, and 14 extra-base hits (six home runs) allowed in just 29 1/3 innings.
Whether Edman homers or not, I like his chances of reaching base tonight. He has a hit in eight of his last nine games and five multi-hit games. Another two-hit game (+195) would also give him two total bases.
Edman has cleared this line in six of his last nine games and is in another great spot to continue that trend.
Tigers vs Royals Player Props: Don't Trust Casey Mize
On Opening Day, you probably did not anticipate four teams from the AL Central having a shot at reaching the playoffs.
The Royals currently hold the second AL wild-card spot, while the Tigers pulled within 1.5 games of the Twins with a win last night. After falling behind 5-1, the Tigers rallied for a 7-6 victory in one of the best games in the MLB this season.
The Royals are favored to even the series on Tuesday, with Cole Ragans getting the start. However, with Casey Mize opposing him, you can expect him to have run support.
Mize enters this start 2-6 with a 4.47 ERA. He ranks in the 20th percentile or worse among qualified pitchers in xERA (4.73), xBA (.289), whiff rate, and strikeout rate. Mize has not missed many bats this season, and strikeouts were already going to be a challenge tonight, as the Royals rank 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Kansas City stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez have homered off Mize and are hitting nearly .500 against Mize. Maikel Garcia is 4-for-5 (.800) with a triple and an RBI against him as well. The Royals are averaging five runs per game at home and Kauffman Stadium is third in Park Factor among MLB home parks over the last three years.
The Royals tagged Mize for six runs at home in May. Additionally, Mize has allowed three earned runs in each of his three starts since returning from the injured list and four of five overall.
If Mize works four to five innings, the Royals likely gets to him for three or more runs again.
Astros vs Padres Player Props: Big Night For Michael King?
Playing behind Michael King when he gets the ball is a Padres lineup that is the most difficult to strike out in the MLB, ranking 30th in strikeout rate.
On Tuesday, they will get a taste of their own medicine against an Astros team that is 28th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. The last nine starting pitchers the Astros have faced have gone under their strikeout lines, although six of them were against the Athletics and Angels.
Meanwhile, Michael King has 191 strikeouts in 161 2/3 innings this season, building on a 2023 season in which he had 127 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings last season. He is familiar with the Astros having been a reliever with the Yankees the last few years. He has enjoyed the most success against Jose Altuve, who is 1-for-6 with three strikeouts against King.
However, what most interests me about King tonight is this line, which may be one too low, even against the Astros.
King has fanned five batters or more in 24-of-29 (83%) games this season. Even at over 5.5 strikeouts, he has gone over at 69% clip this season. More recently, he has reached five strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts overall and he has pitched five innings in those nine starts. He has also reached this line in each of his last 10 home starts.
With the matchup against the Astros, King's strikeouts have a lot of value tonight.
He has 12 starts with seven strikeouts or more this season, which is +285 on FanDuel. If King works his usual five to six innings, he should not only clear over 4.5 strikeouts tonight, but he may also climb the ladder as well.
