MLB Player Props, Picks
Wednesdays are quickly becoming my favorite day of the week, as there's no better way to get over the hump than soaking in some daytime baseball.
With the first pitch of the day fast approaching, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Wednesday, April 24.
Carlos Carrasco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Red Sox vs. Guardians | 6:10 p.m. ET
37-year-old Carlos Carrasco takes the ball today for the Cleveland Guardians, and he gets to face a Boston Red Sox team that's been, quite figuratively, hit or miss.
While this may be a good matchup for Carrasco to rack up strikeouts on paper, he hasn't proven he can surpass this mark at this stage of his career.
Carrasco ranks in the 34th percentile in strikeout rate, which is better than last season but still nearly seven percent lower than his career average rate. There's no doubt that Father Time has begun to catch up to Carrasco.
He's gone under this total in 71% of his last 52 starts. That extensive hit rate gives us implied odds of -245 that he'll go under again tonight.
Plus, our Action Labs projections have him slated for 4.7 punchouts. That makes the juice worth the squeeze here.
Pick: Carlos Carrasco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105)
Tigers vs. Rays | 6:50 p.m. ET
Next, we head to the dish, where Isaac Paredes of the Tampa Bay Rays has an excellent matchup.
Paredes is an overlooked part of the Rays' lineup, and he's off to a great start this season, as he's quietly hitting .274 with six homers.
His metrics suggest he's due to regress, but that won't happen today, as he has a few plate appearances against Jack Flaherty.
To his own credit, Flaherty looks revitalized in Detroit, but he's also been somewhat fortunate.
Flaherty ranks below the league average in barrel rate, ground-ball rate and xBA. Combining that means he's due to allow some hard contact that's going to be in the air.
That appears to be a successful recipe, especially when you see how Paredes outperformed this price. He's gone over this number in 52% of games played this season, which means this price should be flipped.
So, back Paredes to be involved in the Rays' offensive output.
Pick: Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105)
Clarke Schmidt Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
A's vs. Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET
Last but not least, we look to our old friend, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt.
This will be the third time I'll be fading Schmidt this season, and so far, I'm 1-1 doing so.
However, our unsuccessful fade of him last Friday helps us fade him tonight, as his strikeout prop is vastly overinflated. Schmidt may have the best possible matchup when it comes to strikeouts, but he hasn't proven he can surpass this number.
He's gone over this total just three times in his 41 career starts. That 92% hit rate gives us staggering implied odds of -1150 that he'll go under tonight.
The nail in the coffin is our Action Labs projections. They love this under, as it's the top-graded play, with Schmidt projected for just 5.3 strikeouts.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
