MLB Player Props
We're back for this Wednesday's edition of our top MLB player props.
This slate features three starters who will have varying amounts of success, which we plan to capitalize on.
So, with the first pitch fast approaching, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Wednesday, May 15.
- Austin Gomber Under 17.5 Outs (-125, DraftKings)
- Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155, bet365)
- Marcus Stroman Over 15.5 Outs (+105, DraftKings)
The Colorado Rockies are massive underdogs in their matchup this afternoon. The primary reason is that lefty Austin Gomber will have to contend with the San Diego Padres' lineup.
The Padres are a tough matchup for any opposing pitcher. They lead the majors in xBA and have the fifth-lowest team strikeout rate. They have also historically done damage against Gomber.
In 118 combined at-bats, the Padres are hitting .263 with a .424 slugging percentage. However, they're due for significant positive regression against Gomber as well.
That, combined with the fact that Gomber doesn't miss bats and ranks in the bottom third of the league in xBA, is a recipe for a short outing.
San Diego has already forced Gomber to the showers early once this year, and he's gone under this total in 65% of his last 68 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -186, which means he'll exit early today and is a great edge to start our card.
Pick: Austin Gomber Under 17.5 Outs (-125)
Next, we head to Boston, where the Red Sox will hand the ball to their surging ace, Tanner Houck. Houck has been tremendous this season, as he enters with a 2.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Houck has drastically improved his command, and the results are fantastic. His improved command has allowed him to be more efficient and effective while working deeper into games.
Tonight, he takes on a potent Tampa Bay Rays lineup that's derailed their offensive success at times because they're striking out too much. The Rays have the seventh-highest team strikeout rate in the majors and should be carved up by Houck.
Houck has gone over this total in five of his eight starts this season, averaging 6.3 strikeouts per outing. That average makes Houck a candidate to not only surpass his posted total, but climb the ladder a bit.
You can back him to strike out six batters at +140 at bet365. He's done so in half of his outings this year, so the odds are still in your favor.
Pick: Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Lastly, we go to Minnesota, where Marcus Stroman will start for the Yankees.
Stroman has provided the stability New York has needed with Gerrit Cole on the shelf.
The key to Stroman's success is his commitment to generating ground balls. He's one of the best in baseball, as his ground-ball rate ranks in the 90th percentile amongst all qualified starting pitchers.
He can counteract the Twins' power by having them drive the ball into the ground when they don't swing and miss.
We should see Stroman work efficiently against an aggressive Minnesota lineup.
Stroman has worked into the sixth inning in six of his eight starts this season and 57% of his last 60 starts.
The odds should be flipped, so the current plus-money price presents a significant edge for us.
