We're getting over the mid-week hump with some daytime baseball. Wednesday's slate starts early, and so do the players we're targeting on the mound tonight.
So, with that said, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Wednesday, July 24.
MLB Player Props: Wednesday, July 24
- Griffin Canning Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125, bet365)
- Zach Eflin Under 18.5 Outs (-175, BetRivers)
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
Griffin Canning has had a rough season, to say the least. He enters this start with a 5.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through 20 starts.
Fortunately for us, he's been a cash cow when it comes to fading his strikeout totals this season.
Canning has gone under 5.5 strikeouts in 19 of his 20 starts. That hit rate is astronomical, and it makes him worth fading even with the Seattle Mariners in front of him today, who have the highest strikeout rate against righties on the season.
While the hit rate is certainly not worth fading, Canning doesn't profile as a guy who will rack up strikeouts. His swinging strike rate ranks in the 34th percentile and his CSW is in the 10th percentile.
That means the strikes he throws are going to be hit, and they've been hit hard this season. So, it's likely that Canning's under will come home again this afternoon.
Tonight, Zach Eflin will get the ball for the second time since the All-Star break, and while his xERA suggests he's due for positive regression, we didn't see that in his last outing against the Yankees.
Eflin struggled with his command, walking four on his way to allowing four earned runs on seven hits over just five innings of work.
Tonight, he'll be up against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that's been seeing the ball well lately.
The Blue Jays rank eighth in wRC+ against righties over their last 15 games. They also have the second-highest walk rate over that span.
So, if Eflin's command is not reigned in tonight, the Blue Jays have the discipline to make him pay.
In addition, Eflin hasn't been one to work deep into games this season. He's gone under this total in 13 of his 18 starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -257 that he'll stay under again tonight.
Lastly, we head to Texas, where Nathan Eovaldi will take the ball against the Chicago White Sox. Eovaldi is in the midst of another stellar season, and he has a great matchup to pad his stats tonight.
The White Sox have been dreadful against righties all season long, as they're last in wRC+ and have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against them. This is a spot where Eovaldi should look dominant, and we're also getting a great price to capitalize on.
Eovaldi has exceeded this total in 59% of his starts this year, which is right in line with the market, but the plus matchup makes this over worth paying for.
