Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, April 19.
MLB Predictions, Odds Friday | Expert Picks (April 19)
Mets vs. Dodgers
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +164 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -196 |
Sean Manaea vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Sean Manaea has a career-high strikeout rate early in 2024, and he remains a bet-on pitcher for me while his stuff continues to impress.
Manaea's swinging-strike rate spiked from 11.1% last season up to 12.6% this season, and that's while making a move from a primarily bullpen role to a traditional starting role again. You'd expect less dominance given the switch, but Manaea has 18 strikeouts in his first 14.2 innings across three starts.
However, it hasn't been all perfect for Manaea, who's seen an increase in both his walk rate and his barrel rate allowed. Those tend to be very noisy in small samples, though, and his ability to miss bats and generate whiffs is backed up by his two plus secondary pitches, the slider and the change-up.
Most importantly, it gives him an out pitch against both lefty and righty batters, respectively.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been up and down throughout his early Dodgers career, but the depth of his arsenal isn't at imposing as advertised or projected by the market thus far.
The splitter and curveball are both excellent out pitches, but when Yamamoto needs a strike, he's almost exclusively relying on his fastball. The fastball has an 86 Stuff+ thus far. He's thrown a lot of them down the middle, and they've been hit pretty hard as a result.
His fastball has allowed a .554 xSLG and .407 xwOBA through his first four MLB starts. Yamamoto has a 31.4% strikeout rate so far, but his swinging-strike rate is actually lower than Manaea's.
The Padres didn't seem to have trouble getting excellent swings against Yamamoto's heater, as the pitch is not overpowering from a velocity or movement perspective. He's vulnerable relative to the market projection, so there's value betting against him for me.
Pick: Mets ML (+165 or Better)
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | +110 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -130 |
Jordan Montgomery vs. Blake Snell
The two heralded starting pitchers who didn't sign with their respective teams until near the end of spring training are set to face off against one another as Jordan Montgomery makes his Arizona debut and Blake Snell makes his third start of the season for San Francisco.
The baseball gods have a funny way of lining up these two starters against one another, but questions exist about both.
Both entered the season on market highs, as Montgomery had a stellar 2023 playoffs and Snell had an NL Cy Young campaign. Neither had a normal spring training at all and were late to begin the season.
We don't have data yet on Montgomery at the big league level, but his minor league numbers in his last rehab outing weren't particularly inspiring. Montgomery has never relied on stuff, but his spin rates and velocity were down across the board in the rehab appearance.
For Snell, the results have been well below his normal standard. He's thrown seven innings in two starts with four walks, two homers and 10 runs allowed.
His stuff still looks comparable to last year, but he rode a ton of good variance with runners on base, pitching around the jams created by his walk issues.
Snell has always been a roller coaster pitcher throughout his career, and right now, he seems to be on a bit of a downward trend early in the season.
Snell didn't get a single whiff on his curveball in the last outing, and Arizona projects as a pretty difficult matchup for him.
The Diamondbacks have excellent plate discipline and chase pitches outside of the zone at one of the lowest rates in MLB. They also don't strikeout much as a result and will take their walks.
It's far from an elite lineup overall, but Arizona's patience could make this a short and difficult outing for Snell.
Given the questions surrounding both starting pitchers in this matchup, I'd bet the over up to 8 at -105, or I would take over 7.5 at -115 or better.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-115 or Better)
White Sox vs. Phillies
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -105o / -115u | +154 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -105o / -115u | -184 |
Garrett Crochet vs. Spencer Turnbull
Garrett Crochet had a poor outing against the Reds in his last start, but there's nothing in his stuff or underlying peripherals to suggest it being anything more than an outlier.
Even while allowing five runs on eight total base runners (bad LOB luck), Crochet struck out 10 Reds in 4.2 innings and posted a 2.27 FIP in that outing alone.
Crochet has the plus fastball (107 Stuff+) to get whiffs in the zone and a 135 Stuff+ slider that's been effective against both righties and lefties.
The Phillies' lineup has struggled the entire first month of the season and ranks 22nd in wRC+ offensively. They'll likely turn the offense around at some point, but their two most consistently dangerous hitters — Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — bat from the left side.
Both generally hit lefties pretty well, but Crochet is a difficult matchup. While the White Sox lefty is unlikely to maintain a 35% strikeout rate all year, his 15.8% swinging-strike rate easily supports a consistent strikeout rate above 30%.
Combine that with the improvements of Spencer Turnbull and the futility of the White Sox lineup, and this is a prime matchup for a lower-scoring game.
Initially, the forecast at Citizens Bank Park called for winds blowing out at 10-15 mph. The forecast has downgraded to more modest 5-10 mph winds, and the elite Phillies run prevention unit has a fully-rested bullpen to handle Chicago once Turnbull leaves the game.
The Phillies added a sweeper to Turnbull's arsenal, and the results have been quite encouraging. His early-season K-BB% rate is 18%, which is by far a career-high.
Turnbull has a deep arsenal of pitches, including a changeup to use on lefties. Opponents have hit just .133 against the sweeper this season. The Phillies rank 10th in defense, top-five in starter ERA and top-five in bullpen Stuff+.
Chicago's offense is last in MLB with a 67 wRC+, and now given the injury situation, there's no one to really fear in the group.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (-110)
