Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, April 26.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (April 26)
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9 -115o / -105u | -138 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9 -115o / -105u | +116 |
Gavin Stone vs. Chris Bassitt
Gavin Stone's been a little unlucky to begin the season — he has an ERA over six but his expected ERA is 3.98. He's been pretty dominant with is changeup — his main pitch — as it's allowing a .194 xwOBA. Even though his Stuff+ numbers are below the MLB average, he is doing a fantastic job keeping the ball off opposing hitters' sweet spot, as he's in the 90th percentile for barrel rate allowed.
Stone also has a pretty drastic split advantage: he really struggles versus lefties, but is elite against righties. A lot of that has to do with a sinker that has 19 inches of total break that he uses to throw in on righties, as you can see in the strike-zone plot below.
Against right-handed batters this season, he's only allowing a .229 wOBA — but he is getting absolutely smoked by lefties.
At best, the Blue Jays can put four left-handed bats into their lineup, and they are all at the bottom of the order. In fact, for the season, the Jays have been pretty average against right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 99.
Chris Bassitt is a negative regression candidate as his expected ERA is north of six to begin the season. The problem with Bassitt is he's not generating a high number of whiffs or getting hitters to chase balls outside of the zone. He has average stuff overall (100 Stuff+) so if he has to live in the zone, he's going to get hit.
He's a big time sinker-ball pitcher, throwing it 41.3% of the time this season. Opposing hitters have gotten to it as he's allowing a .412 xwOBA on it. If he's going to throw his sinker that often to the Dodgers, he's going to get lit up. Since the beginning of 2023, the Dodgers have a .413 xwOBA against right-handed sinkers, which is 27 points higher than the next closest team.
I have the Dodgers projected at -151, so I like the value on their moneyline at -122.
Pick:Dodgers ML (-122 via DraftKings)
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Nationals vs. Marlins
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | +144 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | -172 |
Trevor Williams vs. Jesus Luzardo
Editor's Note: This preview was written before Jesus Luzardo was scratched from his scheduled start with left elbow tightness.
Trevor Williams has been perfectly fine through his first four starts. He's posted a 3.09 xERA and he hasn't given up a home run yet, which has been a big problem throughout his career.
One thing he is doing very well is generating a high number of ground balls. Some of his most successful seasons as a Pirate were when he was utilizing his sinker, slider and changeup down in the zone to get the ball on the ground. He needs to be able to do this because he has no velocity left with a four-seam fastball that averages at 89.3 mph and a sinker at 88.2 mph.
He's doing that with a lot of success this season with a ground-ball rate just short of 50%. The Marlins have the highest ground-ball rate as an offense against right-handed pitching at 52.3%. They also have been struggling to hit righties as Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz and Luis Arraez are the only three hitters with a wRC+ above 100.
Left-hander Jesus Luzardo is really struggling out of the gates, posting an ERA above six with expected metrics that aren't much better. His control is way off as his BB/9 rate is above four and his Location+ is bottom 15 among qualified starting pitchers. He also has a home run problem — his HR/FB% is the highest it's been in his career.
It's mainly his fastball that's been problematic. Opponents have a .383 xwOBA against it and it's because 45% of the time, he's leaving that pitch up in the zone while trying to go up and in to right-handed hitters. His velocity on average is down almost a full tick, so continually trying to do that isn't going to be as effective as it's been in the past.
I only have the Marlins projected at -132, so I like the value on the the Nats moneyline at +150.
Pick:Nationals ML (+150 via BetRivers)
Cardinals vs. Mets
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
Miles Mikolas vs. Jose Butto
Jose Butto is a very interesting pitcher right now because the whiff rates that he's produced through his first three starts have been insane.
His changeup and slider are both above 40% and his fastball is at 32.4%. This is shocking because he was nowhere near those numbers last season and his Stuff+ numbers have actually gone down this season.
The Stuff+ on most his pitches are well below the MLB average. His fastball is only averaging 93.8 mph and has a Stuff+ rating of 87. His slider is at 102, changeup at 65 and sinker at 91. Generating whiffs like this on below-average pitches — while maintaining a 31.8 K% — just isn't going to be sustainable.
His projected composite strikeout rate is 20.5% on FanGraphs and he is projected to face about 22 batters per start on average. So if you multiply those two together, we get a projection closer to 4.5.
The Cardinals are around the MLB average in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, and over a larger sample size since the start of last year, only three of their starters are above average in strikeout rate.
Our Action Labs projections have this projected for 4.2, so I like the value on Butto to go under 5.5 strikeouts at -110.
Pick:Jose Butto Under 5.5 Ks (-110 via DraftKings)
Phillies vs. Padres
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
Aaron Nola vs. Joe Musgrove
Aaron Nola had a bit of a rough start to the season, but he seems to have corrected some of his issues in his last couple of starts.
Granted, the last two starts have come against the Rockies and White Sox, but the strikeout rate and whiff rates are back up. Really what it comes down to is despite a drop in velocity, Nola's command of his arsenal is one of the best in baseball, which is the reason why he's lowered his xERA down to 3.62 (lower than it was in 2023).
He's utilizing his knuckle curve at around a 30% rate, which is where he was last season — it's the pitch that's allowed him to be successful. It has a 144 Stuff+ and has only allowed a .195 wOBA to opposing hitters.
Aaron Nola, Vicious 78mph Knuckle Curve. 😤 pic.twitter.com/llS5AoipDq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 21, 2024
The Padres have been hitting righties pretty well, but if we take it over a larger sample size from the start of 2023, a lot of their best hitters have been right around the league average in wOBA and wRC+.
Joe Musgrove has been a disaster this season. Through five starts, he has an xERA of 6.73. It really comes down to issues with his command.
He's always been someone with an incredibly low walk rate, but for the first time in his career, his BB/9 is above three and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career as well.
The main problem has been his curveball. It's his most utilized pitch this season, but the effectiveness of it has gone way down. The Stuff+ numbers and velocity are pretty much the exact same from last year, but location has been a problem.
The whiff rate on his curveball has gone down 10%, which is a big problem because when players are making contact with it, they are crushing it. This season, his curveball has an xwOBACON of .421 (per Pitcher List) — what that tells me is he's leaving the ball in the zone way too often. Not only that, but the Phillies have the fifth-best xwOBA against right-handed curveballs since the start of last season.
The Padres are also going to be without two of their top four bullpen arms after pitching in back-to-back days, while the Phillies will be fully rested.
I have the Phillies projected at -135, so I like the value on their moneyline at -110.
Pick:Phillies ML (-110 via bet365)
