Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, May 3.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 3)
Giants vs. Phillies
Jordan Hicks vs. Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola's first three starts of the MLB season were pretty out of character for the veteran right-hander.
He pitched in cold or wet conditions in all three, saw a decline in his fastball velocity and issued more walks than usual. Through three starts, Nola has just 10 strikeouts to eight walks across 16 innings.
As the weather has improved and Nola has gotten more work in, he's looked more like classic Nola.
He's allowed just six runs across his past three starts and 12 innings — five of them from homers — with 26 strikeouts and three walks. His swinging strike rate has jumped and his fastball velocity is back to where he normally sits. The market is undervaluing Nola as a result and has the run environment a bit too high for this matchup.
Both the Giants and Phillies had the day off to rest their bullpens, and both units project out as clear top 10 groups even if their current season ERAs don't suggest that.
Meanwhile, Giants starter Jordan Hicks' move to the rotation could not have gone better to this point.
He's throwing mostly the same pitch mix as he did as a flame-throwing reliever, but the decline in his fastball velocity has led to fewer whiffs, more weak contact on the ground and, most importantly, better command. Hicks' walk rate dropped from 11.2% — not viable to be a starter — to 7.7%. Hicks will not maintain his 1.59 ERA, but his high ground ball rate (59%) is typical of pitchers from the Bay and a testament to the Giants' pitching development.
A 10-15 mph easterly wind is forecasted at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night, which will provide a bit of a cross wind from the first base side. It's a mostly neutral wind that could knock down right-field fly balls.
The total should be closer to seven than eight, and I'd bet under 8 at -120 or better or under 7.5 to -105.
Pick: Under 8 (-120) | Play to 7.5 (-105)
Tigers vs. Yankees
Reese Olson vs. Marcus Stroman
Most young pitchers that come up throwing as many sliders as Reese Olson tend to have platoon-split issues. Clarke Schmidt, Tanner Houck and Brandon Pfaadt are just a few key examples of pitchers who rely on the great sweeper but struggle to retire left-handed hitters.
But the one reason I've always been bullish on Olson is his changeup, which is a plus pitch that gives him the ability to attack lefties better than those other guys. Olson has marginally increased his changeup usage in 2024, and it continues to get excellent results for the Tigers righty.
The changeup and slider are really important for Olson because his fastball isn't good. The pitch has just a 77 Stuff+, and he hides it by spamming a lot of sinkers, changeups and sliders. In fact, he throws the slider more than his fastball.
In many ways, Olson's profile is similar to Kyle Bradish's. Bradish took a leap when his fastball marginally improved to just slightly below average, and Olson's recent strikeout numbers show his upside — he has 20 strikeouts across his past 18 innings, including a few on the fastball.
Since coming to the Yankees, Marcus Stroman has thrown way more cutters and sliders, alongside way fewer slurves and marginally fewer sinkers. It's a Yankee classic to give a pitcher a cutter, but his command issues give Stroman some risk. The stuff metrics favor the pitch and it's generating more whiffs, but it's also been crushed (.563 SLG, .677 expected slugging).
Stroman is on pace for a career-high strikeout rate in New York, but his underlying whiff and chase rates suggest that's a mirage. He's also seen an uptick in his walk rate.
Stroman has downside risk, and Olson has upside potential, so I'm betting on the Tigers at +140 or better.
Pick: Tigers ML (+142) | Play to ML (+140)
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Mariners vs. Astros
George Kirby vs. Ronel Blanco
FanGraphs posted an article this morning by Michael Rosen about command, centered around Mariners starter George Kirby.
At this point, we have stuff models that can quickly indicate how good a pitcher's arsenal is and predict how effectively it will play. The stuff stabilizes quickly, but we're still not sure how to best quantify command. The article is worth a read, and George Kirby's elite precision on the mound is worth a watch.
Kirby's walk rate was 4.1% in 2022 and has since lowered to 2.5% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024. There's a lot of reason to believe that Kirby is in the midst of a breakout right now because his fastball velocity is up, his Stuff+ is up accordingly, and he's getting more swings and misses in the zone.
As a result, Kirby's strikeout rate has jumped from 22.7% last year to 28.4% in the early season.
Astros starter Ronel Blanco has done an incredible job of limiting hard contact (25% hard-hit rate) at this point in his young MLB career, but his strikeout minus walk rate is only slightly better than half of Kirby's. His first pitch strike rate sees him falling behind in counts often, and a patient Seattle lineup should crush Blanco if he consistently falls behind in counts.
Pick: Mariners F5 (-105)
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Braves vs. Dodgers
Charlie Morton vs. Gavin Stone
Although he has only pitched 30 full innings, Charlie Morton now has the lowest strikeout rate and swinging strike rate since he was throwing sinkers for the 2015 Pirates.
The second phase of Morton's career saw him generate more whiffs in the zone and rely on his elite curveball to maintain solid rotation production. Morton — now in his age 40 season — appears to finally be losing his stuff and that makes him a real downside risk against one of the best lineups in MLB.
The Braves and Dodgers are the two World Series favorites and seem destined for an eventual NLCS clash, although the same was true the last two seasons and never came close to materializing.
Gavin Stone has only a 16% strikeout rate thus far in 2024, but his underlying metrics suggest he's pitching much better than that. Stone is generating a ton of swings and weak contact early in counts, which is encouraging as he faces a lineup that likes to be aggressive and jump pitchers early.
Stone's swinging strike rate is nearly two percent higher than the league average, and his changeup remains a clear plus pitch. The question for Stone is his command.
But his 11% walk rate is also misleading. Stone's first-pitch strike rate is 4% better than the league average. Stone is getting more strikeouts, and he's better than his strikeout minus walk rate suggests.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-120 or better)
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