Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, April 22.
MLB Predictions Monday | Odds & Expert Picks (4/22)
Brewers vs. Pirates
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | +120 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | -142 |
Joe Ross vs. Jared Jones
By pitch modeling metrics, no starter has outperformed Jared Jones (136 Stuff+, 116 Pitching+) this season.
The 22-year-old rookie is coming off the best outing of his young career (5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 7 K), where he generated 50 strikes (10 called and 15 whiffs) on 59 pitches against the Mets. Despite a low pitch count, the Pirates pulled Jones to preserve his innings for the remainder of the season — they ultimately lost 3-1.
It's become clear that Jones is severely under-projected relative to his public forecasts (projected FIP range of 3.95 to 4.49). Jones' 2.74 xERA (expected ERA) and 2.17 xFIP (expected FIP), represent his elite performance to date. Moreover, Jones' 2.18 botERA — based on those elite pitch modeling ratings — aligns with his expected indicators.
While I try to keep my process as objective as possible, it's a much simpler task with veterans with a lengthy sample of performance data. We'll find our biggest edges by most accurately projecting players who offer an extensive range of outcomes (like Jones), and who are reaching a different level of performance beyond the most optimistic — or, in other cases, pessimistic — expectations.
After weighing the available data, Jones still projects among my elite tier of starting pitchers. Still, moving forward, he should carry an ERA closer to three than two, as his pitch modeling metrics would indicate.
That said, Jones has four above-average offerings, per Stuff+, but is throwing his fastball and slider more than 88% of the time combined. If Jones balances his arsenal, he could go up another level and contend for a Cy Young Award as soon as next season. His NL Rookie of the Year price is shorter than I'd like considering the likely innings limitations.
Joe Ross has proven himself to be a serviceable innings eater for a Milwaukee team relying heavily on its bullpen. Ross' pitch modeling metrics (4.15 botERA) show that he can continue to perform toward career averages (4.28 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.20 xFIP) despite less optimistic projections (projected FIP range of 4.45 to 4.73).
It's worth noting that while I upgraded Jones, I also upgraded Ross. If I used Ross' preseason projections, I'd bump this line up another 10 cents.
Even still, I projected the Pirates as -161 favorites (61.7% implied) in the first five innings (F5) and would bet their F5 moneyline to -148 (59.7% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my projected line.
Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (-148 or better)
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Tigers vs. Rays
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
Tarik Skubal vs. Zack Littell
The Rays are typically built on run prevention. At the same time, the Tigers seem like they're primed for many low-scoring games this season, featuring a bottom-five offense (85 wRC+) and a top-five pitching staff, according to ERA (closer to league average by underlying metrics).
However, Monday's total of 7 is pretty low for Tropicana Field; just six games closed at 6.5 or 7 last season in Tampa Bay.
Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin started for the Rays in those games — not Zack Littell, who has performed better (2.14 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 3.30 xFIP) than either his projections (projected FIP range of 3.87 to 4.38) or pitch modeling metrics (80 Stuff+, 4.09 Bot ERA) might indicate.
Tarik Skubal ranks among the elite pitchers by projections (projected FIP range of 3.19 to 3.32), pitching models (105 Pitching+ 3.26 botERA) and results (2.34 xERA, 2.97 xFIP in 2024; 2.20 and 2.56, respectively, last season).
However,, Skubal has shown a significant differential in home-run rate against righties (career 1.55 HR/9) and lefties (0.35 HR/9). The Rays can toss out nine right-handed batters against Skubal, including several regulars (Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez, Isaac Paredes and Amed Rosario) who have a multiyear sample with superior splits vs. lefties (average 139 wrC+ as a group) than righties (average 111).
I projected the Rays as -118 favorites in this matchup and set the total at 7.88 runs. Bet Tampa Bay to -110, and play the over up to 7.5 (-105).
Bets: Rays Moneyline (-110 or better) | Over 7 (7.5, -105 or better)
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Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -104 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -112 |
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Lance Lynn
Weather could play a significant factor at Busch Stadium on Monday, with a pair of homer-prone pitchers facing 11 mph winds out to left field.
Lance Lynn has allowed 48 homers in 36 starts over the past two seasons (2.11 HR/9), but Brandon Pfaadt (1.96 HR/9) has been nearly as deficient at preventing the long ball, permitting 26 across his first 22 MLB starts.
I previously highlighted Pfaadt in this space as a pitch model darling — 101 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 107 Pitching+ since August of last season — with an elite slider and improving command over his entire arsenal. Pfaadt has traded some four-seamers for sinkers this year, and his ground-ball rate has increased by 5%, but he's also generating more popups and fewer pulled fly balls.
Pitching models and underlying indicators (3.65 xERA, 3.62 xFIP) all agree that Pfaadt has been highly unlucky thus far in his career (5.64 ERA, 4.29 xFIP) and suggest that he can pitch toward the more optimistic end of a wide range of projected outcomes (projected FIP range of 3.90 to 4.61) this season.
Even in a short sample, halving his walk rate to a level (3%) on par with the league leaders shows Pfaadt's upside if he can optimize the remainder of his arsenal.
Conversely, Lynn may be over-projected (projected FIP range of 4.42 to 4.54). The 36-year-old righty owns a 4.71 xERA and 4.49 xFIP, compared to a 2.18 ERA across four starts in his second stint in St. Louis. Lynn posted a 5.73 ERA between his time with the White Sox and Dodgers last season, alongside a 4.86 xERA and a 4.50 xFIP.
Pitch modeling metrics don't see any optimism either, projecting Lynn for a 4.71 ERA. Lynn still has league-average command, but his Stuff+ has degraded, and his arsenal doesn't include a single league-average offering.
In addition to the superior starting pitcher with a vastly higher ceiling, Arizona has the superior position-player group —both offensively and defensively — and a significantly better plate approach.
The bullpens are a relative wash, though I'd give the Cardinals a slight advantage since they have the two best projected relievers — Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero — in this matchup.
Ultimately, I projected the Diamondbacks as -130 F5 favorites and -119 full-game favorites. Bet their F5 moneyline to -120 and their full-game moneyline to -110.
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-120 or better) | Diamondbacks Moneyline (-110 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, April 22
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-105, 0.75u) at BetMGM (bet to -120; reduce risk past -110)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+105, 0.75u) at WynnBet (bet to -110; reduce risk past -101)
- Baltimore Orioles / Los Angeles Angels Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- New York Mets / San Francisco Giants Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -117)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -148)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Cincinnati Reds Under 9 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- San Diego Padres Team Total Over 5.5 (-130, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -140 or
- Tampa Bay Rays (+105, 0.75u) at WynnBet (bet to -110; reduce risk past -101)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Detroit Tigers Over 7 (-117, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to 7.5, -105)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Kansas City Royals Over 8.5 (-112, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to 9, -110)
