Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, September 2.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks, Previews, Odds for Monday
Sean Zerillo's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Expert Moneyline Pick
Jack Flaherty (LAD) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
Since his first start of 2024 against the Guardians (5 2/3 IP, 2 BB, 1 K), Eduardo Rodriguez has shown solid command (15 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 15 K) and generated pitch modeling ratings (76 Stuff+, 110 Location+, 98 Pitching+, 3.93 botERA) comparable to prior seasons.
Moreover, his velocity has steadily increased in each outing, going from 91.2 to 92.1 mph across four appearances, reaching his average level from last season (92.2 mph).
The rest of season projections remain high on Rodriguez – putting his projected FIP range between 3.78 and 4.10.
While that's a comparable range as Jack Flahery (projected 3.71 to 4.07), the latter has undoubtedly been the better pitcher this season (3.28 xERA, 26.3% K-BB%, 96 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 103 Pitching+, 4.03 botERA), while continuing to excel since the trade deadline (28 1/3 IP, 34 K, 7 BB, 3.49 ERA, 3.50 xFIP).
Offensively, the Dodgers are as healthy and dangerous as they have been all year – with a 129 wRC+ (4th in MLB) as a team since Max Muncy returned to the lineup on August 19.
Still, the Diamondbacks offense has been surging for the entire second half, with an MLB-best 133 wRC+ as a team, including a 131 wRC+ – one spot ahead of the Dodgers since August 19, a stretch without Ketel Marte.
Corbin Carroll (1.042 OPS, 173 wRC+ in August) has put a dismal first half (.635 OPS, 79 wRC+) behind him. Teammates including Joc Pederson (203 WRC+), Eugenio Suarez (135), Lourdes Gurriel (130), Jake McCarthy (140), Geraldo Perdomo (117), and Adrian Del Castillo (158) have all provided significant second-half contributions to compensate for injuries to Marte and Christian Walker.
An inside-the-park answerback from Corbin Carroll 🏃♂️ pic.twitter.com/IzcKVG2kfC
— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2024
That said, I still give the Dodgers the offensive advantage (projected 122 wRC+ against a lefty vs. a 109 wRC+ for the D-Backs against a righty).
Since the deadline, Arizona has had a better bullpen (2nd in xFIP, 5th in K-BB%, 8th in Stuff+, 7th in Pitching+) than the Dodgers (18th, 14th, 12th, 17th, respectively); I project the relief units as relatively comparable.
Bets: Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (+118 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Astros-Reds Prediction, Preview
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. Julian Aguiar (CIN)
I have continually highlighted Justin Verlander's decreased underlying metrics in the pitch clock era.
Verlander (3.79 xERA, 14.6% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 4.73 botERA) won the AL Cy Young in 2022 (2.66 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 113 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA), but his fastball has dipped from 95 mph (94.3 career) to 93.5 mph in two seasons, and his strikeout rate has dropped significantly (from 27.8% to 21.4%) over that span.
Moreover, Verlander's Stuff+ rating has dropped from 135 to 119, while his botERA has increased from 3.34 to 4.73.
Projections systems are no longer optimistic about the future Hall-0f-Famer, putting his rest-of-season FIP range between 4.30 and 4.53, in the company of the No. 4 or below-average starting pitchers.
Julian Aguiar (projected FIP range of 4.66 to 5.33) fits a tier or two below that, in the range of the replacement-level starting pitchers. And Aguiar has pitched like a minor league arm in three MLB appearances this season (7.89 xERA, 4.8% K-BB%, 89 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 99 Pitching+, 4.59 botERA).
The bullpen matchup is much closer, however; Reds' relievers own superior indicators both on the season (13th vs. 14th in xFIP, 2nd vs. 14th in Pitching+, 11th vs. 14th in botERA) and over the past thirty days, 15th vs. 17th, 2nd vs. 11th, 7th vs. 9th); I still give a slight advantage to Houston, however.
Alex Bregman's status for Monday's matchup is in doubt. Bregman hasn't played since Thursday with an elbow issue; I projected him IN but would lower my price target closer to +115 on Cincinnati if the Astros' starting third baseman misses a fourth consecutive game.
Bets: Reds Full-Game Moneyline (+123 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Yankees vs Rangers Pick
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. Jack Leiter (TEX)
After missing the first two and a half months with elbow discomfort, Gerrit Cole has shown declining indicators (4.26 xERA, 17.4% K-BB%, 112 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+, 3.90 botERA) in 2024.
Cole looks like an average pitcher compared to his 2023 Cy Young season (3.48 xERA, 21.2% K-BB%, 121 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+), which itself was a reduced version compared to his 2022 campaign (3.31 xERA, 26.1% K-BB%, 139 Stuf+, 110 Pitching+) or his two seasons before that (3.13 and 3.31 xERA respectively, with a 113 Pitching+ in both seasons).
Consider how Cole has declined in terms of leaguewide percentile rankings:
- 2021: 95th in K%, 88th in BB%, 86th in xERA, 97th in Fastball Velo
- 2022: 92nd in K%, 75th in BB%, 71st in xERA, 96th in Fastball Velo
- 2023: 76th in K%, 87th in BB%, 79th in xERA, 90th in Fastball Velo
- 2024: 71st in K%, 48th in BB%, 38th in XERA, 82nd in Fastball Velo
Cole's fastball is sitting 96 mph, down from 96.7 mph in 2023 and 97.8 mph in 2022. The Stuff+ rating on his four-seamer has dropped from 157 to 117 in two years. Cole remains effective after rehabbing the elbow issue, but he is no longer near his prior level of effectiveness – and only surgery will get him near 100%.
Jack Leiter has struggled at the MLB level (7.65 xERA, 3.9% K-BB% in four starts), but he's a former No. 2 overall pick and a pitch model darling (114 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 102 Pitching+, 3.92 botERA) with solid results in Triple-A (22.7% K-BB%, 4.34 xFIP).
Models love Leiter's fastball (127 Stuff+), changeup (115), and slider (113), and he projects as a future frontline starter alongside Kumar Rocker. I'd expect both pitchers to play a significant role in Texas's plans for 2025.
Bets: Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+135 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, September 2
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+124, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +118)
- Boston Red Sox / New York Mets, Under 8 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -110)
- Cincinnati Reds (+144, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +123)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / Chicago Cubs, Under 7.5 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to 7, -110)
- St. Louis Cardinals / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -116)
- Texas Rangers (+154, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +135)
