Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season. We've reached the final chapter of the 2024 MLB season with Yankees vs Dodgers in the World Series.
The goal for Opening Pitch remains the same for the Fall Classic: Highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite World Series bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every World Series game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best World Series lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my World Series predictions and expert picks and preview for Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 on Monday, October 28.
World Series Expert Picks & Predictions for Monday, October 28
World Series Futures Update
Below are my updated series moneyline and prop projections for the 2024 World Series before Game 3:
My projection assumes a fully healthy Dodgers lineup for the remainder of the series. Shohei Ohtani is worth about 4.6% to the series projection; if Ohtani's shoulder injury caused him to miss the remainder of the World Series, I would have made the Dodgers 72.5% favorites (-263 implied).
Bet the Yankees at +357 (21.9% implied) or better on the series moneyline before Game 3 (listed at +360 at FanDuel).
However, that price (+360, 21.7% implied) only represents a 1.2% edge compared to my projection.
I added small bets on the Yankees to win 4-2 (projected +1102, 8.3% implied; listed +1400, 6.7% implied at DraftKings) and to win 4-3 (projected +583, 14.6% implied; listed +650, 13.3% implied at DraftKings) — at expected edges of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, when Ohtani's status was still in doubt on Saturday night.
You can structure those bets to receive a better return than their series line, but below price targets of +1200 and +600, you'd get a better return on their series moneyline. Moreover, those lines have been knocked into place (+550 and +1000) at the book where I bet them.
Additionally, I bet the series to go over 5.5 games, which would require the Yankees to win two of their three home games. I projected that prop at -150 (60% implied) and would bet it to -140 (-135 at FanDuel). I managed to get plus money at the open on Saturday but tracked the more widely available line on Sunday morning.
I also added a wager on the Yankees +3.5 games (projected -451, 81.9% implied) — or to not get swept — at -230 (69.7% implied) at DraftKings. Bet that series spread to -400 (80% implied); I bet as much as I could at that price (which was only about a half unit) at -230 (a 12.2% edge). I would be less aggressive (without limits) past -300.
In the same market, you can bet Yankees +1.5 games to +178 (projected +169, listed +196 at FanDuel). And I'd want -144 to bet Yankees +2.5 games, but the best available price aligned with my projection at -150.
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 Preview & Bets
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -142 |
RHP Walker Buehler (LAD) vs RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY)
With Carlos Rodon as the only left-handed starting pitcher for either team in this series, both offenses should remain in their superior split for the next three games.
The Yankees have better season-long splits against right-handed pitching, posting a 120 wRC+ (first in MLB) compared to 117 for the Dodgers (second).
However, while the Dodgers lineup missed several stars for significant stretches of the season, they led MLB with a 134 wRC+ (133 against righties) after Max Muncy returned to their lineup on Aug. 19.
Both lineups grind down opposing pitching staffs, too, ranking first and second in chase rate, first and third in walk rate, and third and fifth in pitches seen per plate appearance (Yankees 3.99, Dodgers 3.95).
The Dodgers have pounced on pitches a bit earlier in the first two games of the World Series (3.74 per plate appearance), while the Yankees have elongated their plate appearances (4.06 pitches per PA) in a small sample.
My Game 3 projection assumes that Shohei Ohtani — who left Game 2 with a should subluxation — will play at typical effectiveness in Game 3. Still, it's also difficult to assume that he's 100% healthy after a partial dislocation, and the Dodgers may prevent him from stealing bases for the remainder of the series.
I give the Yankees the starting pitching advantage in what amounts to a must-win home game:
Clarke Schmidt hasn't pitched since Game 3 of the ALCS — an 11-day gap between starts. He pitched better in Game 3 of the ALDS (4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 30% CSW%) against Kansas City than he did last out against Cleveland (4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 23% CSW%).
I'd imagine Aaron Boone and the Yankees keep Clarke on an extremely short leash.
Schmidt's outs prop is juiced slightly to the over at 13.5 (-130/-110), and his strikeout prop is 4.5. If you shop around, -110 is available on either side of the strikeout total.
Those same prop lines closed at 13.5 outs (-125/-105) and 3.5 K's (-140/+115) for Schmidt against Kansas City and 14.5 outs (-120/-117) and 4.5 K's (+118/-148) against Cleveland.
The Dodgers ranked 12th in strikeout rate against righties on the season (22%) — well behind Kansas City (19.3%, 3rd) or Cleveland (20%, 4th). However, they improved to 18.8% (2nd) with a fully healthy lineup in September and have carried a 19.5% strikeout rate (second in the playoffs) against even better pitching.
This season, Schmidt carried reverse splits (3.49 xFIP, 22.3% K-BB% vs. lefties; 4.33 xFIP, 13% K-BB% vs. righties) with a cutter, sweeper, and knuckle curve that each bare in on left-handed hitters and away from righties. Those three pitches, plus a sinker, are Schmidt's main offerings.
The Dodgers smashed sinkers (1st on a per-pitch basis) and sliders/sweepers (2nd) but ranked 8th against knuckle curveballs and 12th against cutters this season.
The cutter (35%) is Schmidt's most oft-select pitch, but it also has the second-highest strikeout rate among his offerings. Schmidt uses the curve (18%) less often than his sweeper (25%) or sinker, but it's his best strikeout pitch (41.4%).
As a result, while I'd lean toward Schmidt Under 4.5 strikeouts on usage given the Dodgers' reduced strikeout rate for two months, he should throw his two best strikeout pitches more often in this matchup, and Ohtani's injured shoulder could lead to heightened strikeout rates.
Clarke Schmidt, 94mph Cutter (foul) and 84mph Knuckle Curve (swinging K), Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/iY4PEbpb5R
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 17, 2024
Walker Buehler hasn't pitched since Game 3 of the NLCS — a 12-day layoff between outings.
He showed eye-popping stuff at Citi Field, generating 18 whiffs (most since 2021) with an increased horizontal break on his sinker and sweeper and an increased drop on his curve, despite his velocity sitting down a tick (averaged 93.8 mph) from his season-long average (95 mph).
It's possible that Buehler, a pending free agent who finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2021, found his best stuff at the right time.
It's likelier, however, that conditions at Citi Field – whether the mound, atmosphere or otherwise, boosted Buehler's stuff. Yoshinobu Yamamoto posted a career-high IVB at Citi Field in Game 4 the next day.
If the mound had an impact, note that Yankee Stadium has a drastically different effect on release height (and break) than Citi Field or Dodger Stadium.
We have a much larger sample of Buehler's struggles this year after his injury, including his NLDS start against the Padres, in which he allowed a six-run second inning without generating a strikeout across five frames.
Buehler's command (8.1% walk rate, 101 Location+ vs. 6.2% and 104 in 2021), velocity (95 mph in 2024, 95.2 in 2023, 94.3 in 2021, 96.8 in 2020, 96.5 in 2019) and stuff (94 Stuff+ in 2024, 96 in 2023, 117 in 2022, 138 in 2020) have all decreased relative to prior seasons.
His fastball velocity declined in-season, too, decreasing to a career-year low of 93.9 and 94.4 mph in his final two regular-season starts (he averaged 95.9 and 95.7 in his first two starts of the season):
Buehler's start against the Mets saw him average a new career-low of 93.8 mph after sitting at his season average (94.9 mph) against the Padres, yet the movement on his pitches suddenly spiked.
To be clear, this doesn't just happen; either Buehler's movement regresses in Game 3, and his effectiveness wanes, or it's possible that he introduced a foreign substance in the NLCS after struggling against the Padres.
Dave Roberts can't afford to pull Buehler too early, whether he's effective or not. If anything, I'd lean toward Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+130 at DraftKings);
The Dodgers have a planned bullpen day in Game 4, and Roberts used four of his key relievers — Blake Treinen (55 pitches), Anthony Banda (31), Michael Kopech (24) and Alex Vesia (17) — on back-to-back days to start the series.
Roberts can burn one long reliever (Ben Casparius, Brent Honeywell or Landon Knack) behind Buehler — but not multiple.
The Yankees only used two relievers — Jake Cousins and Clay Holmes — on consecutive days; I'd expect heavy bullpen usage from Boone in Games 3 and 4, with the hopes of tying the series up before Gerrit Cole in Game 5:
I set the Yankees as -146 favorites (59.3% implied) in Game 3, and I would bet the Yankees at -140 (58.3% implied) or better. I would make them closer to -163 favorites if Shohei Ohtani misses Game 3.
I set the Yankees F5, or first five innings line, at -152 (60.3% implied) and would bet the Yankees F5 to -146 (59.3% implied).
Temperatures should be chilly in the Bronx (52 degrees at first pitch), with 5 mph winds blowing in from left field.
I set the total at 8.75 runs with Ohtani in the lineup but would make it 8.4 without him. Bet Over 8.5 at -105 or better.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & World Series Picks for Monday, October 28
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- New York Yankees F5 (-145, 0.25u) at BetMGM (bet to -146)
- Over 8 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel & Over 7.5 (-120, 0.25u) at ESPN BET (bet to 8.5, -105)
- Series Correct Score: Yankees 4-2 (+1400, 0.05u) at DraftKings (bet to +1200)
- Series Correct Score: Yankees 4-3 (+650, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +600)
- Series Spread: Yankees +3.5 Games (-230, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -400)
- Series Total Games: Over 5.5 (-130, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
