Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for MLB Easter Sunday (March 31).
MLB Odds & Predictions for Sunday, March 31
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Kevin Gausman had a delayed start to Spring Training because of shoulder fatigue, but he returned on the final day of the preseason and threw three innings (52 pitches). It’s safe to say the ace of the Blue Jays should be good to go in a plus matchup here at a near-PK price.
Gausman has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball and posted an above average Stuff+, Pitching+ and Location+ last year (all 104 or better). His split-finger was near unhittable, as the righty had a .176 xBA and 43% whiff rate.
This is likely a bullpen game for Tampa anchored by Tyler Alexander. Shawn Armstrong will get the first inning before the ball is handed over to Alexander.
Toronto should have no issue getting to the left-hander who lacks any real velocity. His season was shut down early last year but from that small sample out of the pen, and his season prior, Alexander had an extremely low whiff rate and was barreled often.
That’s not a good pairing for a Blue Jays offense that ranked inside the top 10 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching last season. Justin Turner’s addition (.243 ISO, 142 wRC+ against LHP) should be a huge addition in the absence of Matt Chapman.
After two straight quiet games, I expect this Blue Jays offense to rally around Gausman in his season debut. It was encouraging to see him throw 52 pitches in his first start and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw closer to 80 here.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-118)
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -110o / -110u | -130 |
The Marlins look to avoid a series-opening sweep at the hands of the Pirates on Sunday as Trevor Rogers makes his first start in nearly a year.
The southpaw threw 70 pitches his last time out and is ready for a full workload, which is much-needed after both A.J. Puk and Ryan Weathers were unable to make it deep into the game over the last couple of days.
Projections are extremely high on Rogers, projecting him closer to a 3.9-4.0 FIP this season. Prior to his injury — albeit, a small sample size — we saw a higher ground ball rate out of Rogers as he began to introduce a sinker into his arsenal, which was extremely effective early on.
Bailey Falter, on the other hand, is a far worse starter. Projections have him over a half-run lower than Rogers, and that might be generous for the southpaw. Falter sat in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in xBA, fastball velocity and whiff rate in 2023. His strikeout rate dipped for a third straight season, too.
Even in Spring Training, Falter was getting hit hard. Over his last four starts, Falter made it just 12 innings and gave up 10 runs.
This is a great spot to back the Marlins to get their first win as short home favorites here. Aside from Andrew Nardi — who was battered yesterday — and Sixto Sanchez’s long relief in lieu of Weathers, we should see everyone else available for the Fish.
The Marlins have really struggled with runners in scoring position to date, but should see some luck turnaround against a non-strikeout, below-average arm like Falter on the mound.
Pick: Marlins ML (-122)
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +142 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -168 |
Jake Irvin takes the bump in the series finale against the Reds and is definitely a pitcher on my fade list early on. The right-hander posted a 5.13 xERA last season and struggled with both control and limiting hard contact.
The Reds' offense is in form right now and has scored 14 runs across its two games; it has a great matchup once again here against Irvin. While Josiah Gray struck out six Reds on Opening Day — he profiles as a ~25 K% pitcher — Patrick Corbin finished with just two.
That brings me to Irvin, who is a step back from both Gray and Corbin. In his rookie season, he finished with an 18.7 K%, and even in his last few Spring Training starts he never finished with more than five.
Irvin ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in barrel rate and bottom 3% in both chase and whiff rate. This could be a recipe for disaster with his lack of control — 4.0 BB/9 last season — against the Reds.
Dating back to last season, Irvin finished with 6+ strikeouts in just 8-of-24 starts (33%). I like his under 5.5 strikeouts prop which currently sits at (-115) up to (-140).
Pick: Jake Irvin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 9 -105o / -115u | -126 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 9 -105o / -115u | +108 |
I had high hopes for Brady Singer after a strong 2022 season, but he really struggled last year. The right-hander finished in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate (48.6%) and really struggled to generate any swings and misses.
Singer saw his velocity dip, and despite a high ground ball rate, could not find any success. His Stuff+ ranked all the way down at 84 and even his Pitching+ dipped below the 100 mark. Singer is mainly a two-pitch pitcher, and neither were effective.
Prone to big blowups, Singer struggled with consistency in Spring Training. He was blown up on two starts, including his last — 4.2 innings, seven runs — where he only threw 40 pitches.
We could see an early night from Singer and a heavy workload for a below-average KC bullpen. The Twins can stack up the lefties for Singer and have a deep bench to work with as the game progresses.
That brings me to Bailey Ober, a player I am looking to buy early on. His ceiling is sky high and he began to find a groove last season. Ober isn’t a pitcher who will blow the ball by you, but he possesses elite ball placement and he’s added a rise to his fastball in the offseason.
That should lead to a higher whiff rate, continuing to grow from a pitcher who had a 3.63 xERA last season. Ober posted a career low in hard-hit rate and xBA (.226), even limiting his barrels, which has become a problem at times.
The Twins should be higher favorites here in my opinion, and with what should be a fully-available bullpen, I expect Minnesota to open its season with a road sweep.
Pick: Twins ML (-118)
