Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite MLB bets for Saturday, March 30.
MLB Predictions for Saturday, March 30
Brewers vs. Mets
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
DL Hall vs. Luis Severino
DL Hall came over to Milwaukee in the Corbin Burnes trade. I think it’s a pretty good buy-low opportunity on a guy who once was one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball but has struggled in the minors and hasn’t reached his full potential.
Hall has pitched around 23 innings in the big leagues, mostly all of them out of the bullpen, and has done very well with under a three expected ERA. He has an elite fastball too — Stuff+ graded it at 122 last season and it is in the 93rd percentile for extension — which makes him unique and he can touch 96-97 mph on it. He reworked his slider last season that he struggled with in the minors to add nine more inches of drop without losing any velocity and also has a decent changeup.
The problem has always been command of these pitches. Last season out of the bullpen, Hall had a 106 Location+ rating. The question is, if he sees the lineup two or three times over, is he going to continue to be as effective? That remains to be seen, but if he can start to realize some of his potential, it’s going to completely change this Brewers rotation.
The Mets were a below-average team against left-handed pitching last year, only putting up a .308 wOBA, which was 23rd in MLB. After getting only one hit on Opening Day, there really isn't much confidence in this lineup.
Luis Severino completely imploded last season. In a little over 89 innings, he had a 6.68 ERA, with his expected metrics not being much better. The effectiveness of his pitches dropped, he didn't get as many swings and miss as he was used to and opposing hitters hit him hard. He had a career-low 7.86 K/9 rate, which caused career highs in barrel rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed.
The Brewers were a below-average team last season offensively. They basically relied on Christian Yelich, Willson Contreras and Willy Adames to be their entire offense. In the offseason, they went out and got Rhys Hoskins who is coming off a torn ACL, but the previous two seasons he put up fantastic numbers and he already had two home runs in spring training.
They also signed Gary Sanchez, who put up his best numbers in four seasons last year, to be a platoon catcher with Contreras or to DH.
Jackson Churio is also widely regarded as the third-best overall prospect in baseball, so there are some encouraging signs for the Brewers offensively.
Finally, the Brewers will have massive advantages both defensively and in the bullpen, so I really don't think they should be underdogs. I have the Brewers projected at -106, so I like the value on them at +110.
Pick: Brewers ML (+112 via ESPN Bet)
Nationals vs. Reds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 9 -118o / -102u | +140 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9 -118o / -102u | -166 |
Patrick Corbin vs. Hunter Greene
Patrick Corbin has still somehow found himself on a major league roster, and I say somehow because he's been washed up for a number of years now. Over the past three seasons with the Nationals, Corbin has had an ERA over five, and the last two seasons his expected ERA has been 6.41 and 6.16, respectively. His problem is that is velocity is gone and now he has some of the least effective pitches in baseball. He mainly throws a sinker, slider, fastball combination, but all three of those pitches got shelled last year, with all of them allowing an xwOBA over .350. Not to mention, all three of those pitches have a Stuff+ rating under 87.
Corbin is also pitching in the most hitter-friendly park outside of Coors Field, with the wind blowing out 18 mph to left field. The Reds lineup was 12th in MLB against left-handed pitching last year, so they should have a huge day at the plate against Corbin.
Hunter Greene has some of the most electric stuff in the game. Last season he had a Stuff+ rating of 124, which was fifth best in baseball. What is impressive is he's done it all with just two pitches: a fastball and slider. His fastball averages 98.3 mph and completely blows hitters away, while his slider had almost a 40% whiff rate last season.
Hunter Greene, Wicked Sliders. 🤢
7th and 8th Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/HmZJ9sWXKg
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2023
Greene also added a curveball and split finger to his pitch arsenal this offseason, which could make him even more dangerous.
The Nationals' offense was pretty mediocre last season and there doesn't appear to be much hope of it getting any better this season. They had a -17.3 run value against sliders last season and were in the bottom 10 of baseball in xwOBA on pitches above 98 mph.
I have the Reds projected at -208, so I like the value on them at -160.
Pick: Reds ML (-165 via BetMGM)
Cubs vs. Rangers
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 9 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Kyle Hendricks vs. Cody Bradford
Kyle Hendricks' effectiveness has gone down pretty significantly over the last three years. Last season he had a bit of a resurgence, posting a 3.74 ERA, but his xERA was up at 4.14 and his xFIP was at 4.42. He doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses, but he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year at generating soft contact, ranking in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity allowed.
With that being said, he is facing one of the best lineups in baseball that was second in the league in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in 2023. Hendricks is the definition of a soft tosser because he didn't have a pitch that averaged over 88 mph in 2023. Throwing that soft against the rest of the league may work, but not against the best lineup in the American League.
Cody Bradford was used sparingly as a starter last season, but when he did start it did not go well. In his eight starts, he allowed a .370 wOBA and 4.77 xFIP. He's a soft-tossing lefty that is pretty reliant on location rather than getting swings and misses. He had one of the lowest walk rates in baseball last year, but allowed one of the highest barrel and hard hit rates in baseball.
The Cubs were one of the best lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching in 2023, putting up a .335 wOBA. They also had one of the highest hard hit rates against lefties as well, so they should have a really good matchup here against Bradford.
I have 10.1 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 9 runs at -113.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-113)
