Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite MLB bets for Monday, April 1.
MLB Predictions for Monday, April 1
Braves vs. White Sox
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -138 | 9 -106o / -114u | -240 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +115 | 9 -106o / -114u | +194 |
Charlie Morton vs. Chris Flexen
Despite poor conditions in Chicago on Monday (48 degrees and drizzly at first pitch, with 13-mph winds), I set the total for the first game between the Braves and White Sox at 9.55 runs. There are 8.5s available overnight — below the key number of nine, and I'd bet Over 9 to -110.
This could be the most significant projected differential I see between any starting lineup (projected 125 wRC+ for Atlanta) and bullpen (projected 4.72 ERA for Chicago) this season, and Atlanta's lineup gets nine guaranteed innings to bat on the road.
Additionally, I don't think either starting pitcher is particularly effective, so you can expect early runs, too.
Forty-year-old Charlie Morton (3.64 ERA in 2023) largely overperformed compared to his underlying metrics (4.64 xERA or expected ERA, 4.27 xFIP or expected FIP) last season. Morton's strikeout minus walk rate or K-BB% was 14% — his lowest mark since 2015.
Among the 127 starters who tossed at least 100 innings last season, Chris Flexen ranked 126th with a 6.20 xERA, 115th with a 5.12 xFIP, and 122nd in K-BB% (7.7%).
I set the first five innings total at 5.37 runs. Bet Over 4.5 to -140, or Over 5 to -105.
Bet: F5 Over 5 (-105 or better) | Over 9 (-110 or better) | Braves F5 ML (-200 or better)
Angels vs. Marlins
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -102 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -116 |
Chase Silseth vs. Max Meyer
The Marlins are 0-4 on the season and 4-0 to the Over, having dropped a pair of extra-inning games at home to the Pirates.
Miami's bullpen was forced to work hard in that reverse sweep. Sixto Sanchez, Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender and George Soriano were all given a breather on Sunday after pitching two of the first three games of the season, and overextended Trevor Rogers and Vladimir Gutierrez — trying to soak up innings — blew an early 5-0 lead in a 9-7 loss.
Miami's key relievers — Bender, Nardi, Soriano, and Scott — should all be available on Monday, but an appearance for any would mark their third in five days. And if any of those key arms go on Monday, they'll likely be unavailable Tuesday.
They need length from Max Meyer, who is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Meyer (projected FIP range 4.25 to 4.36) — the third overall pick in 2020 — maxed out at 39 pitches in spring training, and Miami's long relievers tossed 94 pitches combined on Friday.
Miami needs an off-day to reset its bullpen, but it won't get one until Thursday — and I expect more runs in this series until their staff gets a break or a starter gives them some length.
The Marlins are running a more potent lineup than in years past (projected 109 wRC+ vs. righties). I don't mind Chase Silseth (projected FIP range 4.44-4.54), but the Angels have a bottom-tier bullpen (zero relievers projected for a sub-four FIP), and Miami should score runs in this series, too.
I projected Monday's total at 9 runs. Bet Over 8.5 to -110 and be ready to jump on Tuesday's Over if the Marlins deploy multiple key relievers on Monday.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-110 or better)
Reds vs. Phillies
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8 -115o / -105u | +134 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8 -115o / -105u | -158 |
Andrew Abbott vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Despite encouraging weather and CLV for under bettors, all three Braves-Phillies games exceeded the total.
Monday's weather at Citizens Bank Park (54 degrees at first pitch, six-mph winds blowing in from right field) could decrease the run-scoring environment (typically +2% in Philadelphia) by more than 10 percent. I set the total closer to 8 runs and would bet Under 8.5 to -108.
I also project value on the Phillies behind the improving and underrated Cristopher Sanchez, against fellow southpaw Andrew Abbott.
Abbott (3.87 ERA, 3.93 xERA, 4.56 xFIP, 16.6% K-BB%) posted underwhelming pitch modeling metrics (77 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 97 Pitching+) in his debut and also isn't as highly regarded by scouts despite his second-round pedigree. Projection models have him anywhere between a 4.29 and 4.55 FIP for 2024.
Sanchez has superior pitch modeling figures (83 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 100 Pitching+), underlying indicators (3.74 xERA, 3.09 xFIP 20.2% K-BB%), and projections (FIP range 4.11-4.37).
Philadelphia had the better offense against lefties last season (108 vs. 99 wRC+) and projects for an even more considerable advantage (119 vs. 100) in my model for Tuesday's contest.
Bet the Phillies in both halves, to -165 (F5) and -160 (full game)
Bet: Phillies F5 ML (-165 or better) | Phillies ML (-160 or better) | Under 8.5 (-108 or better)
Tigers vs. Mets
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +114 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -134 |
Reese Olson vs. Sean Manaea
I projected the Mets as -144 favorites (59% implied) for Monday's matchup. Anecdotally, you can probably factor in an additional half-percent tax against Detroit for Monday for traveling overnight (and potentially enjoying their time in a key road destination).
These teams faced vastly different levels of competition to start the season, but Detroit swept Chicago on the road with two come-from-behind wins, while the Mets looked listless in a sweep at home against the Brewers.
I prefer Reese Olson to Sean Manaea. Still, my projection model doesn't see much of a difference between the two starting pitchers or bullpens (roughly .05 runs on a season-long ERA in favor of New York), and Manaea offers superior FIP projections across a larger sample of 2024 forecasts.
I prefer the Mets' lineup against a righty (projected 112 wRC+, 103 last season) to the Tigers' offense against a lefty (projected 106 wRC+; 95 last season). Aside from Spencer Torkelson, Detroit's four best hitters (Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows) are all left-handed.
Based on the pure game projection, I would play the Mets' moneyline up to -133 (57% implied) in either half.
Bet: Mets F5 ML (-133 or better) | Mets ML (-133 or better)
Red Sox vs. Athletics
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8 -110o / -110u | -138 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 8 -110o / -110u | +118 |
Tanner Houck vs. Joe Boyle
Boston's pitching staff looks much improved under the tutelage of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey.
Tanner Houck pitched well this spring (16 K, 3 BB in 13 IP) after a tough-luck 2023 campaign (5.01 ERA, 4.21 xERA, 4.07 xFIP) across 21 starts; his first season as a full-time starting pitcher.
Joe Boyle is one of the few exciting pitchers on Oakland's roster. The 6-foot-7 righty has big-time stuff (132 Stuff+; 120 fastball, 126 slider, 141 curveball) but has struggled mightily with command (career 7.23 BB/9 in the minors). Surprisingly, he made the major league team after an enigmatic spring (13 IP, 11 R, 15 BB, 14 K).
Boyle will have some excellent starts, and if he ever harnesses his command there is ace potential in his range of outcomes. Still, scouting grades give him a 30 command potential — well below the MLB average — and he showed nothing but red flags with command during spring.
Projection systems put Boyle's FIP between 4.6 and 4.98 for 2024, a replacement-level arm in the aggregate.
Boston's lineup should work counts against Boyle and get into Oakland's bullpen, which remains a bottom-tier group, though an upgrade over last season's historically lousy unit (5.20 xFIP in 2023).
I set this total at 8.5 runs; bet Over 8 to -110.
Bet: Over 8 (-110 or better)
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 10 -105o / -115u | -124 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 10 -105o / -115u | +106 |
Luis Gil vs. Ryne Nelson
Both pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 103 Pitching+ in 2023) and projections (projected FIP range 4.47-5.12) expect Ryne Nelson to be better this season than he was in 2023 (5.31 ERA, 5.27 xERA, 5.30 xFIP).
Nelson has a solid spring (15 1/3 IP, 5 R, 7 BB, 16 K) while tinkering with throwing his slider harder, which was already his best pitch (106 Stuff+).
I prefer Luis Gil, as do many other projections (projected FIP range 4.37-4.59). He also had a solid spring (13 2/3 IP, 3 R, 4 BB, 20 K) alongside a 119 Stuff+ rating.
In this matchup, the Yankees also have a slightly better bullpen and a superior offensive group (eight points better in projected wRC+ in my model).
Still, Arizona has the defensive (4th vs. 10th in Defensive Runs Saved in 2023) and base running advantages (6th vs. 28th in BsR in 2023).
I projected the Snakes as slight favorites on Monday. Bet their moneyline to +103.
With the roof closed on Monday in Arizona, bet Under 10 to -120, or Under 9.5 to -102.
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+103 or better) | Under 9.5 (-102 or better)
Giants vs. Dodgers
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -215 |
Keaton Winn vs. James Paxton
"The Big Maple" James Paxton was a high-upside acquisition for the Dodgers. If they can keep the hard-throwing lefty healthy until October, he could become a critical postseason contributor for the pitching staff.
Paxton tossed 96 innings last season — his most since 2019 — and he was more effective than the results indicate (4.50 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 3.98 xFIP). His fastball averaged 95.3 mph, the hardest he's thrown since 2019 (92.6 mph in 2020; 94.9 mph in 2021).
However, after an initial spike (he averaged 95.7 mph with a 22.7% K-BB% through his first 10 starts), Paxton faded (he averaged 94.8 mph with an 11% K-BB% over his final eight) and ultimately went on the IL in September with a knee injury.
Projection systems call for a FIP range of 4.29 to 4.62 for Paxton this season, and the same systems prefer the Giants' Keaton Winn (projected range of 4.05 to 4.24).
Winn posted a 120 Stuff+ and 100 Location+ rating last season (104 Pitching+) while moving between the rotation and bullpen. He has a beautiful splitter (143 Stuff+) and threw the pitch more than 50% of the time last season:
Winn seems like a highly effective, underrated, and likely undervalued arm.
I projected the Giants closer to 40% on Monday. Bet their moneyline at +166 or better for the full game or +170 in the first half.
Bet: Giants F5 ML (+170 or better) | Giants ML (+166 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, April 1
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-192, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -200)
- Atlanta Braves / Chicago White Sox, F5 Over 4.5 (-122, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -110)
- Atlanta Braves / Chicago White Sox, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -110)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+103, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +104)
- Arizona Diamondbacks / New York Yankees, Under 10 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 9.5, -102)
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-140, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
- Baltimore Orioles (-148, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -150)
- Boston Red Sox / Oakland Athletics, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- Houston Astros (-135, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -135)
- Los Angeles Angels / Miami Marlins, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Miami Marlins (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -113)
- New York Mets F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Bet365 (bet to -133)
- New York Mets (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -133)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-156, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -165) & (-140, 0.25u) at Bet365
- Philadelphia Phillies (-158, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -160) & (-145, 0.25u) at BetMGM
- Philadelphia Phillies / Cincinnati Reds, Under 9 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, -108)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (+170, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +170)
- San Francisco Giants (+190, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +166)
