Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, April 2.
MLB Predictions for Tuesday, April 2
Twins vs. Brewers
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -114o / -106u | -104 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -114o / -106u | -112 |
Louie Varland vs. Jakob Junis
Minnesota and Milwaukee had Monday off, and both teams will bring strong, rested bullpens into Tuesday's matchup. I project six relievers in Milwaukee's bullpen for a sub-4.00 FIPs, compared to three for Minnesota (with Jhoan Duran currently sidelined).
Louie Varland saw a velocity uptick last season (from 93.8 mph to 95.3 mph) and should be a solid contributor in 2024 if he can maintain those gains (projected FIP range 4.14-4.23).
Undoubtedly, the Brewers have modified their approach for free-agent signing Jakob Junis, who — like Varland — has spent time moving between the rotation and bullpen. I trust the Brewers' pitching development as much as any organization, and Junis posted solid numbers last season (career-best 3.74 xERA, 3.66 xFIP, 3.3 SIERA and 20.4% K-BB%).
With their elite bullpen, the Brewers don't need Junis to toss more than five innings.
I give Minnesota the offensive advantage — even with Royce Lewis sidelined — but I view Milwaukee as the superior defensive club. The two teams ranked second (+68 DRS for Milwaukee) and ninth (+33 for Minnesota) in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season and first (+41 for Milwaukee) and 21st (-12 for Minnesota) by OAA or Outs Above Average.
I projected the Brewers' fair odds closer to -120 in this matchup. Bet Milwaukee's moneyline to -110.
Additionally, I projected just more than eight runs in this contest; bet Under 8.5 to -108.
Bet: Brewers ML (-110 or better) | Under 8.5 (-108 or better)
Angels vs. Marlins
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
Tyler Anderson vs. Jesus Luzardo
As I mentioned in Monday's column, the Marlins' bullpen has worked hard early in the 2024 season and has already blown multiple late leads. Key relievers Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, Sixto Sanchez, George Soriano and Tanner Scott have each pitched three of the past five days, with four of those pitchers (including Scott, who pitched on consecutive days) going twice in the past three days.
Miami desperately needs a deep outing from Jesus Luzardo (projected FIP range 3.76-3.85) to rest its bullpen. Still, I said you would find value on Tuesday's Over if Miami deployed its key relievers on Monday. I set Tuesday's total at 9.26 runs and bet the Over while Monday's game was still in progress. Play the Over to 8.5 (-120) or 9 (-102).
Luzardo could keep the run-scoring in check, but if his pitch count ramps up, the Marlins don't have many options to fill out the middle innings of this contest.
Los Angeles projects to have a better offense against lefties than righties. Anthony Rendon (106 wRC+ vs. lefties), Aaron Hicks (119 wrC+ vs. lefties), Mike Trout (152), Taylor Ward (128), Brandon Drury (140), Logan O'Hoppe (147), Luis Rengifo (136) and Zach Neto (118) all show superior splits against southpaw pitching.
I'm low on Tyler Anderson (4.96 xERA, 5.52 xFIP last season; projected FIP range 4.75-5.14), and the Angels' bullpen — which isn't quite as overworked as Miami's — has three relievers who have had a higher workload in recent days (Adam Cimber, Jose Soriano and Carlos Estevez).
I'd lean Over on Luzardo's strikeout prop (6.5, -120), considering he may get pushed closer to 100 pitches on Tuesday.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-120 or better) or 9 (-102 or better)
Tigers vs. Mets
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | +116 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | -134 |
Casey Mize vs. Adrian Houser
Casey Mize is likely under-projected for 2024 (projected FIP range 4.56-4.89). The former No. 1 overall pick — who missed the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery — revamped his pitch mix and posted solid numbers this spring (combined 18 2/3 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 7 BB, 19 K).
I give Detroit the starting pitching advantage with Mize facing Adrian Houser (4.21 xERA, 4.30 xFIP last season; projected FIP range 4.59-4.78). Still, I give the Mets a slight bullpen advantage and prefer their position player group offensively (projected 112 vs. 98 wRC+) and defensively.
The latter is potentially more surprising than the former. New York finished 25th with -25 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season, compared to the 12th-place Tigers (+22). Per Outs Above Average (OAA), the teams ranked 23rd and 20th, respectively. And the Tigers (+5 DRS in 2024, tied for 2nd) are already out to a lead over the Mets (-4, 29th) this year.
The Mets' offense has been held to one or zero runs in three of four games, but I make them -144 favorites in both halves of Tuesday's contest and would bet their moneylines — both F5 and game — to -133.
New York has gone 3-for-17 (.176 average) with runners in scoring position, compared to 9-for-24 (.375) for the Tigers. Both teams are due for regression in that category.
Bet: Mets F5 ML (-133 or better) | Mets ML (-133 or better)
Blue Jays vs. Astros
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +136 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -162 |
Jose Berrios vs. Framber Valdez
Despite a shaky outing on Opening Day against the Yankees, I project Framber Valdez a tier better than Jose Berrios.
Valdez has posted xERA marks of 4.33, 3.31, 3.81 and 3.82 the past four seasons, alongside an xFIP of 3.39, 2.99, 3.58 and 2.94 over the same four-year span. His projected FIP range for 2024 is between 3.56 and 3.80.
Berrios has an xERA of 4.51, 5.11 and 4.09 since joining the Blue Jays, alongside xFIP of 4.01, 4.21 and 3.59 in the same seasons. Projection systems give Berrios a FIP range of 4.06 to 4.27 for 2024.
In other words, Valdez projects about a half run better on a season-long ERA. Still, I think the gap could be even more pronounced, especially for a pitcher in Berrios who has shown drastic home/road splits (3.77 xFIP at home, 4.53 on the road) throughout his career.
I set the Astros at -182 favorites for the first half and -161 for the full game, assuming that Bo Bichette — who has missed the past two games with neck spasms — will be back in Toronto's lineup. However, if Bichette misses the contest, my projections would move closer to -205 and -175, respectively.
Bet Houston in the first half at -166 and consider the full game line at -150. Toronto remains without key bullpen arms Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson. Additionally, southpaw Genesis Cabrera is currently serving a suspension.
Assuming the roof will be closed again in Houston, I like the Under to 9 (-118) or 8.5 (+100), compared to my projected total of 8.25.
Bet: Astros F5 ML (-166 or better) | Under 9 (-118 or better) or 8.5 (+100 or better)
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 9 -105o / -115u | -116 |
Nestor Cortes Jr. vs. Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen's velocity was down in spring training, and that concerning trend continued into his first start. Gallen averaged 91.8 mph on his fastball on Opening Day, compared to 93.6 mph both last season and for his career. He didn't average below 92 mph in any start last year.
In 2023, Gallen threw a career-high in regular season innings (210), plus an additional six starts and 33 postseason innings.
Over his final seven regular-season starts, Gallen posted a 4.93 ERA, 3.75 xFIP and a 15.7% K-BB%, compared to marks of 3.11, 3.42 and 21.7% over the first five months. The performance dip carried over into the postseason (4.5 ERA, 7.1% K-BB%), and Gallen's pitch modeling metrics (83 Stuff+ vs. 106 last season) were drastically down in his first 2024 outing.
While Gallen posted an impressive 38% CSW% against the Rockies, the velocity was down across his entire arsenal:
As a result, I'm concerned that Gallen is potentially hiding an injury — or fighting through fatigue — which could lead to a severe performance dip relative to his 2024 projections (projected FIP range 3.64-3.88).
The roof was closed in Arizona on Monday but will be open on Tuesday and Wednesday.
I set Tuesday's total at 9.25 runs. Bet Over 9 at any plus-money price.
Bet: Over 9 (+100 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, April 2
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- Boston Red Sox / Oakland Athletics, Over 8 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- Chicago Cubs F5 (-160, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -165)
- Chicago Cubs / Colorado Rockies, Over 7.5 (-108, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to 8, -102)
- Houston Astros F5 (-150, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -166)
- Houston Astros / Toronto Blue Jays, Under 9 (-118, 0.5u) at Draftkings (Bet to -118 or 8.5, +100)
- Los Angeles Angels / Miami Marlins, Over 8 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 9, -102)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -108)
- New York Mets F5 (-122, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -133)
- New York Mets (-124, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -133)
- New York Yankees / Arizona Diamondbacks, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
