Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Saturday, April 11.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
New development: each Saturday, Action Network Rookie reliever Matt Trollo will fill in for Sean Zerillo. Exciting!
Still, as always, Zerillo's projections for every MLB game on Saturday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are Trollo's MLB predictions and picks for Saturday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Saturday, April 11
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- Blue Jays -108, 0.54u (Bet to -120)
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Over 7.5 -118, 0.59u (Bet to 8 -110)
- Guardians (F5) -105, 0.53u (Bet to -120)
- Astros Under 3.5 -113, 0.57u (Bet to -125)
Twins vs Blue Jays Picks
Without getting too concerned about Joe Ryan’s velocity, after opening up at 93.9 MPH in his first start, he’s sat at 92.2 MPH and 92.3 MPH in each of his past two.
That could certainly be cold weather in Kansas City and Minnesota, and besides getting smoked for four barrels in the first of those starts, there’s nothing out of line in his peripherals (19.7 K-BB%). Pitch modeling is sending mixed signals (4.14 Bot ERA but 111 Pitching+), and it doesn’t provide any further insight.
Either way, his 24.3% ground-ball rate in three starts could be a problem against a contact-prone lineup in Toronto.
The Rogers Centre Home Run Park Factor jumped up to 118 last season (single season) after some hitter-friendly renovations. While the Blue Jays haven’t gotten off to the hottest start, they did put 10 runs on the board on Friday, and their standard lineup against righties averages a .172 ISO against pitchers from that side since last year.
Eric Lauer came out of nowhere to post a career year, sustaining a 20.4% K-BB over 10 starts and 69 innings last year before trailing off and ending the year in the bullpen. Injuries have forced him into a starting role again this April, and we’ve gotten diverse results so far.
After striking out nine Athletics, Lauer walked three White Sox without a strikeout and did not make it past the second inning. However, there were some extenuating circumstances: Lauer was suffering the aftereffects of a bout with the flu, and his velocity was down nearly three MPH.
We can probably throw that out, but even without expecting him to repeat his performance against the A’s, Lauer ended with both a 3.88 SIERA and xERA last year, which should be competent enough against a stars and scrubs Twins lineup against left-handed pitching.
Three projected Twins exceed a 145 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, but four also reside below 85.
Even a short outing from Lauer would give it over to a rested and effective Toronto bullpen with top 10 estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) in the league so far, averaging around three and a half. Meanwhile, Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers haven’t pitched since Wednesday. It would also have the added benefit of making the Twins adjust to right-handed pitching mid-game.
The Minnesota bullpen has neither been good (bottom third of the league estimators) nor rested. There was a note on social media on Friday about the Twins somehow building a bullpen without a single reliever averaging 95 MPH on their fastball.
The remaining factors also significantly bolster the Jays with a projected lineup Fielding Run Value of 36 and four Base Running Runs to Minnesota’s -15 and -2.
Pick: Blue Jays -108, 0.54u (Bet to -120)
Red Sox vs Cardinals Picks
Perhaps the Phillies knew something when they chose not to fight to retain the services of Ranger Suarez.
He’s allowed four runs in each of his first two starts for Boston (@HOU, SDP) with a 5.3% K-BB and 7.8% swinging-strike rate. He’s allowed two barrels in each start and has a 46.7% hard-hit rate allowed that’s above his 43.3% ground-ball rate induced.
To illustrate why that’s a potential concern so early in the season, Suarez has a career ground-ball rate 17.8 points above his hard-hit rate.
Pitch modeling only gives us more evidence that he’s pitched poorly with a career worst 94 Pitching+.
Suarez keeps batters guessing, throwing five pitches between 12.6% and 27.8% of the time, similar to last year, but his sinker is the high end of that usage pattern, registering just 38 Pitching Bot and 81 Pitching+ overall grades in 2026.
On the other side, Kyle Leahy has transitioned from the bullpen with a 5.13 SIERA and .411 wOBA allowed (still lower than Suarez) through two starts, striking out just five of 47 batters (6.3 SwStr%) with just as many walks.
He’s allowed five barrels (13.5%) with a 54.1% hard-hit rate and little indication that he can succeed in this role with a 1.8 MPH drop in velocity from last season.
The projected Boston lineup has a 109 wRC+ and .178 ISO vs righties since last year. A St Louis projected lineup at 105 vs lefties doesn’t entirely register the overall 2026 192 wRC+ of Jordan Walker, who may be in the midst of a legitimate breakout after visiting Driveline this winter.
He’s taking more walks (10.2%), hitting the ball harder with eight barrels (26.7%) and an absurd 70% hard hit rate so far, generating more air contact with a career low 36.7% ground-ball rate by more than 10 points and showing better pitch selection with a career low 28% O-Swing (33.2% career).
Additionally, while both teams have strong defenses, both also have bullpen FIPs exceeding 4.5. In fact, St. Louis relievers have the third-worst FIP/xFIP/SIERA combo in the league so far (5.05/4.92/4.70).
These projected lineups also combined for +23 Base Running Runs last year.
The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor on Saturday night with a Friday night forecast in the low 60s and a light wind from left field. Similar conditions have had a neutral effect on a park that’s been a perfectly neutral run scoring environment (100 Park Run Factor) over the last three years.
A slumping Roman Anthony was given the night off on Friday, but should find himself back in the lineup, still carrying a career 142 wRC+ vs righties. This seems like a great breakout spot with lefties owning a .337 wOBA and .358 against Leahy since last year.
Pick: Over 7.5 -118, 0.59u (Bet to 8 -110)
Guardians vs Braves Picks
In seven big league starts last year, Parker Messick authored an impressive 3.43 SIERA/3.07 xERA, and in two more starts this season, he has been even better (2.95 SIERA/.276 wOBA).
He shut out the Dodgers in his opening start. Six innings without a walk and five strikeouts, and then threw five innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Cubs with six Ks.
Despite the colder temperatures in Cleveland, his velocity was actually up half a tick from last year. Overall, he has allowed just a single barrel and a 38% hard-hit rate, while keeping 52% of his contact on the ground.
The Braves had just a 99 wRC+ both at home and against southpaws last year. This year’s standard lineup against lefties has Mauricio Dubon’s .119 ISO (vs LHP) since last season, batting sixth with none of the projected nine reaching a .200 ISO.
Opposing Messick will be the veteran southpaw Martin Perez, who last reached a double-digit K-BB rate in 2022 and has allowed more line drives (nine) than ground balls (eight) this year.
He’s had a SIERA below four and a half once since 2016 and an xERA above 4.80 for three consecutive seasons.
Problematically, the Cleveland offense had just an 81 wRC+ against LHP last year. The projected lineup is only a bit higher than last season at 92. However, Chase DeLauter has given a jolt to this lineup with a 188 wRC+ overall through Thursday’s games.
Both teams project an equally strong defensive lineup above 25 FRV last season, but the Guardians may have a slight base-running edge (4 BRR v -3 for projected lineups).
I’ll opt to avoid an Atlanta pen with the best estimators in baseball so far and side with an impressive young pitcher at -105 (Bet 365) to outduel the veteran hanger-on for five innings.
Pick: Guardians (F5) -105, 0.53u (Bet to -120)
Astros vs Mariners
Luis Castillo is what I like to call a conditional pitcher. Even with certain conditions, he can still be an effective pitcher.
If you know anything about the Astros, you know they offer a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Yordan Alvarez and Joey Loperfido have been the only left-handed regulars for Houston.
Now, I’d like to introduce you to some numbers:
- 2025: .211
- 2024: .207
- 2023: .247
Those are the wOBA for righties against Luis Castillo in home starts for each of his full seasons with the Mariners.
Is he at home? Yes
Is he facing a predominantly right-handed lineup? Yes
The converse holds true here as well. You look to attack Castillo whenever he’s facing a predominantly left-handed lineup on the road because those same numbers are .405, .351, and .347.
The Seattle bullpen has top-five bullpen estimators this season (2.87 FIP, 2.99 xFIP/2.62), while the Astros are also a poor base-running team (projected LU -5 BRR last year).
Seattle is the most negative run environment in baseball (83 PRF with the roof open, 77 with it closed). The roof acts more like an awning with a top covering to keep rain off the field, but the sides open to let in the other elements.
Adam Hamari is scheduled to be behind the plate. Although not known as an extreme umpire, he tends to lean pitcher-friendly.
I want no part of the enigma that is Lance McCullers, who’s already shown us how volatile he can be in two starts, but this is a great spot for Castillo and friends to post some strong numbers and hold the Astros in check.
Pick: Astros Under 3.5 -113, 0.57u (Bet to -125)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, April 11
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Blue Jays -108, 0.54u (Bet to -120)
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Over 7.5 -118, 0.59u (Bet to 8 -110)
- Guardians (F5) -105, 0.53u (Bet to -120)
- Astros Under 3.5 -113, 0.57u (Bet to -125)
