Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, April 3.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview White Sox vs. Blue Jays, Rays vs. Twins, and Giants vs. Mets.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Friday, April 3
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- Astros/Athletics, Over 10.5 (-102, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -110
- Blue Jays/White Sox, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -120
- Braves/Diamondbacks, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -120
- Brewers/Royals, Over 8.5 (-120, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-110)
- Cardials/Tigers, Under 8 (-112, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 7.5 (+100)
- Cubs/Guardians, Under 7.5 (-104, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -115
- Dodgers/Nationals, Over 9.5 (-108, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 10, +100
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-265, 0.25u), BallyBet, bet to -280
- Mariners/Angels, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 7.5 (+100)
- Mets/Giants, Over 7.5 (-105, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -115
- New York Mets (-125, 0.75u), FanDuel, bet to -140
- Orioles/Pirates, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 8.5 (-110)
- Phillies/Rockies, Over 10 (-115, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 10.5 (-110)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+102, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -115
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Over/Under Picks
The White Sox will start their best pitcher, reliever Grant Taylor, ahead of Sean Burke in Friday afternoon's home opener against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Taylor (career 2.87 xERA, 2.41 xFIP, 24.4% K-BB%), who wasn't pitched since back-to-back appearances on March 28th and 29th, opened in two starts and made three six-out relief appearances last season, but I wouldn't expect him to stick around beyond six hitters if he even gets that many, before giving way to Burke (career 4.77 xERA, 4.52 xFIP, 12.9% K-BB%) for the middle innings.
The Blue Jays will start offseason acquisition Dylan Cease, who showed off improved velocity (98.7 mph; the highest since his rookie season) and a new pitch mix in his 2026 debut against the Athletics; Cease used his sinker and changeup nearly 20% of the time combined, compared to around 6% last season, and 5% for his career.
Cease was victimized by bad defense in San Diego last season (4.55 ERA, 3.45 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, .320 BABIP), but now has one of the best defensive units playing behind him; Toronto projects as a top-three defensive team in my model, after ranking fourth in Defensive Runs Saved in 2025, and first in 2024 (sevent and fifth in Outs Above Average; but it doesn't include Catcher defense and Alejandro Kirk is one of the best).
Furthermore, Friday's weather looks fairly miserable for an afternoon homer opener on the southside, particularly for hitters; temperatures in the 50s with 7-9 mph winds blowing in from left field. Rate Field isn't nearly as wind-receptive as Wrigley across town, but there's still enough of an effect along with the lower temps to drive my total down from around 8.5 on a weather-neutral day to south of 7 in Friday's conditions.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 or better)
Rays vs. Twins Moneyline Picks
While I don't directly quantify travel and rest in my model, I do note advantageous spots, and the Rays are set up well for Friday. Tampa Bay had Thursday off to rest some key arms, including Griffin Jax (three appearances since last Sunday), while Minnesota had to play an afternoon game in Kansas City before traveling back north for their home opener on Friday afternoon (not even Friday night).
Regardless of the spot, I still like the Rays as the side in this matchup, projecting them as roughly 55% favorites despite opening at plus money.
I project Joe Boyle (projected FIP range of 3.89 to 4.49) as a better pitcher than Bailey Ober (projected FIP range of 4.24 to 4.82) and suspect the former is breaking out while the latter may be masking an injury.
Boyle (career 13.7% walk rate) has always struggled with his command, but had glowing reports this spring, and he produced just his second-career walk-free appearance in his first start against the Cardinals (6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K). He also overhauled his pitch mix in that outing – reducing his four-seam fastball by more than 20%, while mixing in a sinker (13%), keeping the splitter (16%) the Rays added last season, and pounding his slider (45%) more than he ever has (36% career). If Boyle suddenly found his command this spring, widening his arsenal at the same time gives him immediate ace potential.
Conversely, Ober averaged below 90 mph with his fastball in his first start, closer to his level last season (90.2) than to his solid 2023 and 2024 campaigns (91.3 and 91.7 mph, respectively). Ober may be still ramping up, but he was much worse last season (4.34 xERA, 4.75 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%) than he was in 2024 (3.25 / 3.83 / 20.9%) or 2023 (3.58 / 4.20 / 20.3%). If the velocity continues to sit another half tick below where it was last season, he's going to continue to struggle (4 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 K vs. Baltimore).
Tampa Bay also has the better bullpen and is the superior defensive club. Minnesota has the better offense on paper against right-handed pitching by about nine points in terms of wRC+. Still, the Rays are in their best split against a righty, and the offensive gap isn't enough to overcome the differential in pitching quality.
The Rays project as my most significant edge on Friday's slate. And if you factored in travel and rest, their fair odds would be even closer to -130 than my current projection indicates.
Pick: Rays ML (-115 or Better)
Mets vs. Giants Moneyline & Total Picks
Variance sucks. Variance can also be amazing.
I know it from placing thousands of baseball bets and watching thousands of baseball games: Converting and preventing chances with runners in scoring position; hitting into or recording double plays; blown saves and meaningless ninth-inning runs; dropped popups and ill-timed errors; doubles that clip the line vs. flares that fall just foul. The breaks, good and bad, seem to continue for days or even weeks at a time, leading to streakiness and frustration.
I try to keep both the losses and the crippling defeatism of this sport in perspective, both in my bets and in how I watch my team.
The Mets are batting .155 with runners in scoring position (11-for-71) through seven games. The team that finishes last in baseball in that stat typically bats around .220, meaning the Mets should have four or five more hits based upon the number of chances they have had, never mind the fact that they finished as a top-ten team with RISP in three of the past four seasons (averages of .260, .265, .269, and .243, 25th in 2023) since they employ above average hitters.
Things will turn around; the Mets are getting crushed by variance, and over the past week, so are we. The only line that truly moved against us (a Cubs under which moved up from 9.5 to 10 after I misjudged the forecast), we survived a dropped flyball to cash the ticket, but we are otherwise 0-5 on totals with 1+ run of CLV.
My Tigers F5 bet on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks isn't the craziest example of variance, but it's easiest to explain. Corbin Carroll hit an opposite-field fly ball off Tarik Skubal that just got over the wall. Colt Keith subsequently crushed a ball (to right field instead of left) that hit the very top of the yellow line on the wall and deflected back in. Detroit lost the first five innings and the game 1-0, by roughly an inch.
There have also been some brutal under losses (a pair of dropped popups on the same day in Chicago and Philadelphia, which directly swung the totals; and meaningless ninth-inning runs in a pair of White Sox-Marlins and Yankees-Mariners games to lose unders that looked easy most of the way through). And it has also felt like every game in which we bet an Over or a side, the offenses hit a groundball to an infielder as soon as the leadoff man gets on (betting the Dodgers in a game where Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman all hit into double plays felt particularly special).
We also bet the Mets in the first five innings last night, and they lost 6-2 over that span, but there was a four-run swing involved; Matt Chapman hit a line-scraping double to score a run, and then scored himself from second on a miss-catch error by pitcher David Peterson at first base. And Harrison Bader later robbed a potential two-run homer by Bo Bichette.
Still, I show an edge on the Mets for Friday and hope their offense will finally string together hits and revert to their opening-day form.
Despite struggling with command in his 2026 debut, Nolan McLean rates among the best pitching prospects in the sport (career 3.49 xERA, 2.80 xFIP, 22.4% K-BB%); since he debuted, McLean ranks 8th in xFIP, and 23rd in K-BB% among starting pitchers. McLean (projected FIP range of 3.82 to 4.04; projected K-BB% range of 12.9% to 15.7%) is likely underprojected; he has elite, high-spin secondary stuff, and he has already posted a 31% K% through 53 MLB innings, compared to a projected strikeout rate closer to 24%.
Tyler Mahle overperformed last season (2.18 ERA, 4.23 xERA, 4.43 xFIP, 10.7% K-BB%) compared to below-average metrics. He offers solid command (career 108 Location+, 8.4% walk rate), but he doesn't have a single plus pitch in his arsenal. Still, Mahle is a solid fit at Oracle Park, which should help suppress his home run tilt (career 1.27 HR/9).
You can bet the Mets on the F5 moneyline at -150, or their full game line at -140; alternatively, or in addition, take the Over 7.5 at -115. Given the quality of the Mets' offense, I'd make this total closer to 9 on a weather-neutral day. However, I'm still at 8.1 even after calibrating for weather and making a downward adjustment to account for the forecast.
Pick: Mets ML (-140 or Better) | Over 7.5 (-115 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, April 3
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- Astros/Athletics, Over 10.5 (-102, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -110
- Blue Jays/White Sox, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -120
- Braves/Diamondbacks, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -120
- Brewers/Royals, Over 8.5 (-120, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-110)
- Cardials/Tigers, Under 8 (-112, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 7.5 (+100)
- Cubs/Guardians, Under 7.5 (-104, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -115
- Dodgers/Nationals, Over 9.5 (-108, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 10, +100
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-265, 0.25u), BallyBet, bet to -280
- Mariners/Angels, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 7.5 (+100)
- Mets/Giants, Over 7.5 (-105, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -115
- New York Mets (-125, 0.75u), FanDuel, bet to -140
- Orioles/Pirates, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 8.5 (-110)
- Phillies/Rockies, Over 10 (-115, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 10.5 (-110)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+102, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -115
