Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, April 15.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Yankees-Angels, Rays-White Sox, and Mariners-Padres.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
MLB Predictions, Picks
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- Angels/Yankees, Over 9 (-120, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 9.5 (-110)
- Seattle Mariners (-104, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -110
- Tampa Bay Rays (-112, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -125
Angels vs. Yankees Picks
My model shows value on the over for the third consecutive game in the Bronx, in arguably the best weather conditions that park has had over the past few days (and also this season), with temperatures north of 80 degrees at first pitch, and double-digit wind speeds blowing out to left-center field (temperatures were in the mid to low seventies on both Monday and Tuesday).
Luis Gil has not looked right since suffering a lat strain in 2025 spring training. Gil posted a 3.76 xERA, 4.36 xFIP, and 14.8% K-BB%, with a 106 Stuff+ rating and 102 Pitching+ rating en route to the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year award. Since returning from the IL late last season, however, Gil has posted a 4.98 xERA and 4.73 xFIP, with an abysmal 43:36 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 61 innings (2.7% K-BB%).
Despite losing just one tick of velicity (fastball down from 96.6 to 95.2 mph), Gil's Stuff+ has fallen from 106 to 99, and his botERA has climbed a full run, from 4.24 to 5.24. His swinging strike rate has also decreased from 11.2% career to 8.2% over that span, and Gil, like all pitchers, is getting squeezed more in the ABS era.
Jack Kochanowicz has a high groundball rate (53.9% career), but he has graded out among the worst starting pitchers in the majors over the past few seasons (37 starts, 5.64 xERA, 4.93 xFIP, 3.5% K-BB%). As I have highlighted this week, he has arguably the worst defensive team playing behind him (Angels rank 29th in my model for Wednesday), alongside one of the two or three worst bullpens in baseball to bail him out of any potential trouble.
Drew Pomeranz (projected 4.11 weighted FIP) is the only above-average arm in the Angels' bullpen; the Yankees have five such relievers, and the better bullpen overall, but I also have half of their arms marked as fatigued for Wednesday, narrowing the projected gap between the two units and increasing the need for Gil to go as deep as he can in this game.
Bet Over 9 and lay the juice at the key number to -130, or take a discounted 9.5 up to -110.
Pick: Over 9 (9.5, -110 or better)
Rays vs. White Sox Picks
The White Sox are the only team projected to be worse defensively than the Angels in my model, and they have struggled behind their pitchers thus far, ranking 25th in Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and 23rd in Outs Above Average (-3). Surprisingly, however, the Rays – who project as an average defensive club and typically excel in that hidden area – rank 20th in DRS (0) and 30th in OAA (-9) to this point in the season.
I bet the Rays on Tuesday with a reduced Shane McClanahan facing rookie Noah Schultz in his MLB debut, and I am backing Tampa Bay again on Wednesday, with Jesse Scholtens facing Sean Burke.
Scholtens is a former White Sox draft pick who has made a few spot starts for the Rays over the past two seasons. He's unspectacular, but projects as a No. 4 starter (projected FIP range 4.03 to 4.67; K-BB% range of 11.5% to 14.1%), due to excellent command (career 110 Location+ in the majors and a 6.7% walk rate in the minors).
Scholtens doesn't project quite as well as Shane Smith (projected FIP range 4.23 to 4.44; K-BB% range from 11.6% to 14.5%), but the Rays have the better bullpen (3.8 to 4.1 weighted FIP) and lineup (projected one point better in wRC+ vs. righties), and project as the superior baserunning team, too.
My model aims to capture differences in hidden areas – namely, baserunning and defense – and those small adjustments can be enough to move me onto or off of a game. When the teams are near the top or bottom of the league, the impact on the projection becomes more pronounced.
Adding the Rays' baserunning and defensive advantages together, it's worth a near 4.5% swing in this matchup, which explains away the entirety of my edge in betting on this game.
Pick: Rays ML (-125 or better)
Mariners vs. Padres Picks
Both Emerson Hancock and Randy Vasquez may be on the verge of breakout campaigns, but it's Hancock – the former No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 draft – who has the higher ceiling.
For his career, Hancock has performed as a replacement-level starter (5.17 xERA, 4.68 xFIP, 9.4% K-BB%) with a below-average arsenal (91 Stuff+, 4.46 botERA). Still, he appears to have found himself this offseason (2.41 xERA, 2.87 xFIP, 25.8% K-BB%, 2.98 botERA) by changing his arm angle and revamping his pitch mix – putting away his changeup (down from >20% to 3.5%) and sinker (down from 32% to 16%) in favor of more four-seam fastballs (40%, career high) sliders (up from 17% to 27%) and his new cutter (12.7%).
Vasquez (career 5.48 xERA, 5.12 xFIP, 7.2% K-BB%) has also seen an uptick in performance (4.25 xERA, 3.11 xFIP, 21.7% K-BB%) but without big corresponding changes in his Stuff+ rating (94 to 98) or botERA (3.92 to 3.34). He has modified his pitch mix, increasing his four-seam fastball usage (up from 21% to 33%) and throwing it harder (948 mph) than ever before. And his swinging strike rate has more than doubled in a small sample this season, from 7.6% career to 14.3%.
I prefer the Mariners' offense in this matchup; every bat in their order projects as above-average against right-handed pitching (projected 118 wRC+), whereas the Padres have a couple of below-average hitters and project about seven points worse (111 wRC+) in the aggregate.
Seattle also has the better bullpen, too; both Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon have worked three times in five days, and aside from Miller and Morejon, Seattle has five of the top seven bullpen arms in this matchup (Jason Adam is just behind Eduard Bazardo at a 3.73 to 3.74 weighted FIP).
My edge relative to the market for Wednesday isn't as large as it was on Tuesday, so my stake is slightly reduced; still, you can bet the Mariners to -110.
Pick: Mariners ML (-110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, April 15
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- Angels/Yankees, Over 9 (-120, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 9.5 (-110)
- Seattle Mariners (-104, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -110
- Tampa Bay Rays (-112, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -125
