Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, July 13.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (July 13)
Luis Gil (RHP, NYY) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP, BAL)
The Yankees' prolonged offensive slump has garnered all the headlines over the past few weeks, but the Baltimore Orioles have quietly struggled as well.
Baltimore sits 22nd in wRC+ over the past week, just two spots ahead of New York, and while it has done well to continue putting the ball in play, there's been very little to show for it.
Both of these teams, ripe with power hitters, own an Isolated Power under .145 in those seven days. Two fly ball happy offenses are struggling to hit the ball out of the yard, and now they'll be up against two arms who are well familiar with getting outs through the air.
Luis Gil turned in a terrific outing last Sunday to settle down the growing number of folks concerned with the mileage on his surgically-repaired elbow. Gil owns a .196 Expected Batting Average and a .332 xSLG — surprising marks for someone who allows so much launch angle.
He's also had his fair share of issues with walks, but those have been nearly nonexistent for the Orioles in the past two weeks (7.2%).
So, I think Gil continues his turnaround here. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez should be in a similarly great spot given that the Yankees are almost 100 points worse in OPS against fly-ballers than ground-ballers. The righty has looked dominant with a 2.19 ERA in two starts this month and is transforming into the ace he was supposed to be.
Take the under here and back both of these starters.
Seth Lugo (RHP, KC) vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP, BOS)
Sometimes, we look at an Expected ERA and are simply dumbfounded by how it hasn't come to life over the course of 122 innings. In Seth Lugo's case, however, his 2.21 ERA — coming in almost a run and half below his xERA — is very much a product of the team around him.
The Royals are fourth in the league when it comes to Outs Above Average, which has been carried by good play in the infield. Now, Kansas City will face a Red Sox team that can slug the ball, but puts the ball on the ground most of the time. Kansas City's corner outfield has struggled, but should enjoy life in a smaller ballpark in Boston, and center fielder Kyle Isbel — in the 94th percentile of fielders in Outs Above Average — should make some plays out in a spacious center field.
Lugo should do more than enough to pitch around the Red Sox given the advantage he has with his defense, and on the other side of the coin, I'll once again heap praise upon Kutter Crawford.
Does Crawford have the sexiest numbers in the game? No, he does not. What he does have, though, is an ability to strike guys out and avoid the issues Boston has in the field — something that should help quiet a Royals team that does a ton of swinging.
While that generally results in weakly struck contact and few strikeouts, Crawford's 32.6% chase rate — which is among the top 14 of all pitchers — should generate some more punchouts than Kansas City is used to and continue to hold down an offense that's been incredibly mediocre over the past month.
I'll go ahead an grab another under here.
(Bet Royals vs. Red Sox with the latest BetMGM bonus code.)
Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, ATL) vs. Matt Waldron (RHP, SD)
Editor's Note: Dylan Cease is pitching for the Padres on Saturday night after the Padres switched up their rotation order.
Is it scaring anybody that the Braves look like they're beginning to wake up? It seems nobody is paying attention to this troubling trend if Saturday's line is any indication.
The Braves have scored five or more runs in five of their past six games and own a pretty boisterous .220 ISO in the past week.
Knuckleballer Matt Waldron has every chance to pitch to fly balls here at home — as he's been known to do — but with the way the Braves are hitting, he'll be hanging on by a thread. Atlanta's biggest enemy has been the strikeout. They have been striking out around a quarter of the time in the past couple of weeks, but punchouts aren't something Waldron is known for.
With plenty of balls coming back in play from an offense that is crushing the ball, Waldron could be in trouble. I'm less convinced there will be trouble for Lopez as he's a similar pitcher who's mainly pitched to fly balls. Yes, there's more strikeout upside here, but the Padres have been all about putting the ball in play this summer.
San Diego is has just a 17.7% in strikeout rate, but owns a poor .158 ISO in the past week.
The Padres' fly ball approach shouldn't work as well in their spacious home park, where they're posting a pretty middling .246 average compared to .277 on the road.
Bet: Braves -130 | Play to -140
