Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, June 1.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews
Tigers vs. Red Sox
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +102 |
Reese Olson has been amazing on paper this season, putting up a 1.92 ERA, but his xERA is at 3.26 and his xFIP is at 3.82. What Olson has improved at this season is generating a high number of ground balls. His ground-ball rate is over 54%, which is really important because he has three pitches that he primarily throws down in the zone.
His slider and changeup have both been pretty effective, producing over a 39% whiff rate, and both are generating a ground-ball rate over 60%. However, both of those pitches, especially his slider, are over-performing in terms of the wOBA allowed comparatively to the xwOBA. So, he is due for some negative regression.
(image via Baseball Savant)
Olson has also pitched much better in Detroit than on the road this season. He has a 3.01 xFIP at home but a 4.6 xFIP on the road. Boston also has one of the lowest ground-ball rates against right-handed pitching, so this may not be the best of matchups for him.
Cooper Criswell is actually a pretty good starting pitcher. He has three pitches — a sinker, sweeper and changeup — that all have really good Stuff+ ratings (113 sinker, 111 changeup, 112 sweeper) and he’s doing it all with no velocity. His sinker doesn’t even average 90 mph, but 41.1% of the time it’s ending in a called strike or whiff, which is one of the higher marks in baseball. It’s more like a 2-seam fastball than a sinker because it has almost 19 inches of horizontal movement on it, which is why it’s been so difficult for opposing hitters to hit.
Criswell also throws his sweeper more than any other pitch and it only averages 76.8 mph, but it’s in the 94th percentile for total break compared to all MLB sliders, which is why it’s so hard for opposing hitters to get to it.
The biggest advantage the Red Sox have in this matchup in their bullpen. They are top 10 in both xFIP and Pitching+, while Detroit is much closer to league average.
I have the Red Sox projected at -142, so I like the value on them at +102.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+102 via FanDuel)
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Editor's Note: Right-hander Slade Cecconi was recalled from Triple-A Reno following Zac Gallen's placement on the injured list Friday. Cecconi is taking Gallen's spot in the rotation and will start on Saturday — not Blake Walston.
This will be the second career start for Blake Walston, and the first one didn't go too bad, as he pitched 4 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Marlins. Walston is someone who does not have great stuff and will primarily rely on generating weak contact because he doesn't have a lot of velocity. To be honest, I don't see him going to far into this game, as the Diamondbacks will most likely pull him at the first sign of trouble.
For the season, the Mets have a 92 wRC+ against lefties, along with the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate.
Sean Manaea has been pretty average this season, and this matchup is about as bad as it gets for him. His xERA is over a full run higher than his actual ERA at 4.19 and he really isn't generating a high number of ground balls like he's done in the past, with his ground-ball rate sitting at 33.3%. That is by design; Manaea, who is a heavy sinker ball pitcher, is starting to throw his sinker up in the zone more often to generate a high fly-ball rate.
The results have been mixed. He's currently allowing a 52% ideal contact rate (21st percentile), a 94.5 mph average exit velocity (13th percentile) and a .332 xwOBA.
The problem for Manaea is he is facing one the best lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks have a 116 wRC+ against lefties, which is sixth best in MLB.
The Mets are also starting to get a little depleted in their bullpen, with now an injury to their star closer Edwin Diaz along with Brooks Raley being out and their closer Reed Garrett not being available after pitching back-to-back days.
I have the Diamondbacks projected at +101, so I like the value on them at +115.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115 via bet365)
Reds vs. Cubs
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -134 |
Hunter Greene has been awesome this season, posting a 2.52 xERA. He does it all with basically two pitches, but man are they both really good. His fastball averages 97.9 mph, the third fastest in MLB. Not only that, but it has 17.8 inches of induced vertical break, which makes it even harder for hitters to get on top of. It's no surprise his fastball has a Stuff+ rating of 128, fourth best in baseball.
Greene is struggling to command his slider, but it's still a really good offering. Stuff+ grades it out at 127, which is 12th among qualified starting pitchers. The problem is he's hung way too many of them. Only 64.4% of his sliders are in the bottom part of the strike zone and the average launch angle on his slider is one of the highest.
With that said, Greene has corrected his home run problem, which is something that has plagued him over his first two years in the big leagues. He has lowered his HR/FB % by almost 9%. To his benefit as well, there will be very little wind at Wrigley Field on Saturday.
Justin Steele has been impressive since returning from injury, posting a 3.21 xERA. Steele is an incredibly heavy fastball pitcher, throwing it over 58% of the time. He is able to change his arm angle to keep hitters guessing, but he's pretty reliant on that pitch being effective. The problem is that pitch is allowing a .356 wOBA, mainly because it doesn't have a lot of movement; it's in the 18th percentile for MLB fastballs in iVB (induced vertical break) and it only has a Stuff+ rating of 90.
The Reds have been pretty average against left-handed pitching, but crush left-handed fastballs to the tune of a .343 xwOBA.
The Reds also have a pretty big edge in the bullpen. Cincinnati leads baseball in Pitching+ with a rating of 103 and has better xFIP and K-BB rate than the Cubs.
I have Cincinnati projected as a road favorite, so I like the value on the Reds at +118.
Pick: Reds ML (+118 via BetRivers)
