Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, May 25.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 25)
Astros vs. Athletics
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -142 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | +120 |
Spencer Arrighetti has a very interesting profile as a pitcher; he has good stuff but might have some of the worst command among MLB starting pitchers. He does have an ERA over seven and even though his expected ERA is closer to five, he has the 14th-highest walk rate among MLB starting pitchers, which is a real problem.
Arrighetti mainly utilizes a fastball/cutter combination, with neither pitch having much velocity. His fastball is allowing over a .400 xwOBA and a 49% sweet spot percentage. He also throws his fastball up in the zone 56% of the time to generate a 37% fly-ball rate. The problem with doing that on Saturday is the wind is going to be blowing out at 12 mph at the Oakland Coliseum.
The A's are surprisingly a pretty good offense against right-handed pitching. They got two runs off Arrighetti a little over 10 days ago and for the season have a 104 wRC+ against righties, which is 11th in baseball. Not to mention, they have a .371 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs and cutters (fifth best in MLB).
JP Sears has been a below-average starting pitcher this season, and the way he pitches is going to lead to some trouble Saturday. Sears likes to utilize his sweeper and fastball in the middle to upper part of up the zone to generate a high number of fly balls. He's in the 92nd percentile for percentage of sweepers in the middle of the strike zone, which is always a dangerous game to play.
He did hold the Astros to just one run less than two weeks ago, but his xFIP from that start was 6.33, so the Astros hit him hard but were unlucky not to score more runs.
Houston has been on a tear offensively lately. They have a .340 wOBA over the last 30 days and are top five in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
I have 5.1 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on Over 4.5 runs at -114.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-114 via BetRivers)
Royals vs. Rays
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8 -105o / -115u | -116 |
Brady Singer has pitched well this season on paper, but underneath the service he's been more of just an average MLB starting pitcher. He has a 2.70 ERA, but his expected ERA is up at 4.14. He's also putting up that low of an ERA on basically one pitch. He throws his slider 44% of the time, with that pitch being the only one that grades out above average based on Stuff+.
His two other pitches of sinker and fastball don't have much movement, as they grade out below 80 by Stuff+ standards and are both allowing above a .325 xwOBA. He's been throwing his sinker at a pretty high rate and is inducing a decent rate of ground balls, but when it does get hit, it's getting smoked, allowing a .417 xwOBACON.
Aaron Civale is a big time positive regression candidate, as his 5.92 ERA is not as bad as it looks. His expected ERA is down at 4.09 and his xFIP is at 3.73. What has generally gone wrong for him is giving up too many home runs. His HR/9 rate is the highest of his career at 1.74, so you expect some regression back towards his projection of 1.25.
Civale has a lot of average to below-average pitches, but has one that is better than any other by Stuff+ standards: his sweeper. It has a 158 Stuff+ rating because of the insane amount of drop and horizontal movement.
Aaron Civale, Filthy 81mph Sweeper. 😷 pic.twitter.com/SIfskktROo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 16, 2024
The Rays' bullpen had a really difficult start to the season, but has genuinely been improving lately. Over the past 30 days, their xFIP has been closer to league average, while the Royals remain in the bottom five of that category. In addition, the Rays' bullpen over the past month has a Stuff+ rating of 105, while the Royals are last in baseball at 95.
I have the Rays projected at -138, so I like the value on them at -116.
Pick: Rays ML (-116 via FanDuel)
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 9 -122o / -100u | +160 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 9 -122o / -100u | -190 |
I am not sure Jordan Montgomery should be laying this big of a price.
He really hasn't been that effective in his first six starts, posting a 4.74 xERA and generating an incredibly low amount of swings and misses; his his whiff rate ranks in the 22nd percentile. That has translated to a incredibly low 5.24 K/9, the lowest of his career.
Montgomery has pretty massive splits between facing lefties and righties. He's almost unhittable against lefties this season, allowing only .184 wOBA mainly because of his ability to use his sinker and curveball in on them. However, against right-handed hitters he's allowing a .375 wOBA. He only has a Stuff+ rating of 94, with his curveball being the only pitch that grades out above the MLB average.
The Marlins have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, but they could potentially get right-handed bats into their lineup Saturday night to give themselves a slight advantage against Montgomery.
Sixto Sánchez is a very interesting case right now. He is nowhere near the pitcher that lit the league on fire in 2020 throwing 100 mph fastballs, but isn't as bad as his ERA over six indicates. His expected ERA is actually lower than Montgomery's at 4.65 and he still has a deadly changeup that is generating a ground-ball rate close to 60%.
Sánchez doesn't have the velocity he had in 2020, so he's had to rely more on getting a high number of ground balls and generating soft contact (allowing only a 4% barrel rate).
The Diamondbacks have one of the best offenses against left-handed pitching, but are closer to MLB average against righties.
The Marlins also have an advantage in the bullpen, having a better xFIP, K-BB% and Stuff+ rating than Arizona.
I only have the Diamondbacks projected at -127, so I like the value on the Marlins at +160.
Pick: Marlins ML (+160 via FanDuel)
