Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Saturday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for Yankees vs Guardians on Saturday, October 19.
MLB Predictions Saturday, Expert ALCS Picks, Previews Today
MLB Futures Update and Championship Series Prices
- ALCS Projections:
- NLCS Projections:
- World Series Projections:
- Yankees:48.0% (+108)
- Dodgers: 41.6% (+140)
- Mets: 6.9% (+1355)
- Guardians: 3.5% (+2768)
I'd need +468 (17.6% implied) or better to play the Mets to win the final two games of the NLCS.
And I'd need +1350 (6.9% implied) to play the Guardians to win the final three games of the ALCS or +3900 (2.5% implied) to bet their World Series odds.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 5
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -120 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +100 |
LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE)
Carlos Rodon (4.14 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.83 botERA) will take the mound in Game 5 for the Yankees after a dominant effort in Game 1 (6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K, 38% CSW%) while generating 25 whiffs (12 on his four-seamer, nine on his slider, three on his changeup, one on the cutter) against a typically disciplined Guardians offense.
Rodon looked as sharp for the first three innings against Kansas City (3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 7 K) as he did against the Guardians — and he hasn't shown a noticeable home/road split in 2024, or during his career.
Rodon did pitch better in the second half of the 2024 season (3.67 xFIP, 21.3% K-BB%) than the first half (4.36 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB%) after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign. Still, the lefty puts the Guardians into their better split (114 wRC+, 8th vs. 95 wRC+, 20th against righties).
As a team, Cleveland had mixed results against his pitch types. It handled four-seamers and changeups OK (12th and 15th in pitch value / 100) while struggling against sliders (22nd), curveballs (22nd) and cutters (29th).
And while Rodon can have home run tendencies (1.13 HR/9 career, 1.59 in 2024), Progressive Field (-23% over the past three seasons for right-handed homers, 29th in MLB) is among the softest landing spots for pulled fly balls against southpaw pitchers.
Below are Rodon's Game 1 closing prop odds, compared to his Game 5 opening odds:
- Game 1: Over 5.5 K's (+115/-150) | Over 14.5 Outs (-165/+120) | Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+130/-180) | Over 1.5 BB (-125/-115) | Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-150/+110)
- Game 5: Over 5.5 K's (-115/-115) | Over 15.5 Outs (-120/-110) | Over 4.5 Hits (+125/-175) | Over 1.5 BB (-105/-135) | Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-135/+100)
Given his team's recent bullpen usage, I think the adjustment on Rodon's outs prop (from 14.5 to 15.5) is likely appropriate. However, the juice on Rodon's walks and earned runs props shouldn't be moving toward the Under if the Outs Prop is ticking upward.
From a rest standpoint, the Yankees bullpen is in slightly better shape than the Guardians' bullpen, but they still had to use three relievers — Clay Holmes, Tim Hill and Tommy Kahnle — on consecutive days in Games 3 and 4. You might see Kahnle again on Saturday, but an appearance for Holmes or Hill would mark the fifth in six days for either.
Tanner Bibee (3.80 xERA, 10.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.68 botERA) will start Game 5 for Cleveland on short rest — in place of an injured Alex Cobb — after recording just four outs on 39 pitches in Game 2.
Notably, Bibee didn't throw a sinker in Game 2 against the Yankees after busting out the offering in both of his starts against the Tigers (22.8% usage after throwing nine total in the regular season).
In limited action, Bibee went with 51% four-seamers, 26% cutters, 10% changeups, 8% curveballs and 5% sliders in Game 1, compared to season-long averages of 43.4%, 24.5%, 18%, 6.9%, and 6.9%, respectively.
Going with a fastball-heavy approach seems suboptimal against a Yankees lineup that ranked third against heaters on a per-pitch basis. They also crushed sliders (4th) but were much less effective against cutters (11th), curveballs (12th) and changeups (19th) by comparison.
I anticipate a different plan of attack from Bibee in Game 5. Below are his Game 2 closing prop odds, compared to his Game 5 opening odds:
- Game 2: Over 4.5 K's (-140/+110) | Over 13.5 Outs (-130/-105) | Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-165/+115) | Over 1.5 BB (-195/+135) | Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+125/-170)
- Game 5: Over 3.5 K's (-120/+105) | (TBD On the remainder)
Only Bibee's K prop opened overnight, but I'm happy to take the reduced number (and juice) relative to his Game 2 closing line.
Even with their season on the line, the Guardians need length from Bibee in Game 5. Their five best high-leverage relievers (Cade Smith, Eli Morgan, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase) have worked on consecutive days, and all except for Clase have pitched in three of the past four days.
If they must go to their bullpen again early in Game 5, the series is seemingly over anyway. Andrew Walters, who pitched in Games 1 and 3, and Pedro Avila, who worked the first three games of this series, are their most well-rested relief options for Saturday.
I projected the Yankees as -105 favorites (51.1% implied) for Game 5. The Guardians opened around +105, but I'd bet their moneyline at +109 (47.9% implied) or better for Saturday.
I set the total at 7.8 runs, with hitter-friendly umpire Alan Porter behind the plate and two bullpens filled with overworked arms. Bet the Over to 7.5 (-105) pregame, and look for live Overs around 4.5 and 6.5 (or 5 and 7 at plus money or minimal juice).
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Saturday, October 19
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- New York Yankees / Cleveland Guardians, Over 7.5 (+110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -105)
- Tanner Bibee, Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120, 0.1u) at FanDuel
