Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and Saturday Division Series picks, odds and previews.
MLB Predictions & Saturday Division Series Picks, Odds — 10/5
MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices
Below are my updated projections for the four divisional series, plus updated futures projections for the AL Pennant, NL Pennant and World Series.
I project value on the Cleveland Guardians (to -130), the New York Mets (to +160) and the San Diego Padres (to +115) compared to listed odds for their divisional round series.
The Padres will be without Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery) for the remainder of the playoffs, and I'd rather bet on them game by game from this point on than take additional series moneyline or futures positions.
Cleveland is the current value team in the AL from a pennant and World Series futures perspective (listed at +370 and +1000, respectively). I'll consider adding the Guardians' AL pennant future alongside my series ticket before Game 1 against the Tigers.
San Diego remains the value team in the NL (+300 to win the Pennant, +650 to win the World Series), but the odds have shrunk considerably in a few days (+400 and +700 on Thursday morning), and I'm less interested in betting on them now without Musgrove.
Zerillo's Tigers vs Guardians Pick for Game 1
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7 -105o / -115u | +124 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7 -105o / -115u | -148 |
Tyler Holton (DET) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
The Guardians won their season series 7-6 against the Tigers. However, these clubs last played on July 30 — just before the Tigers caught fire in August and surged into the playoff hunt.
Tanner Bibee (3.80 xERA, 10.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.68 botERA) will face the Tigers for the fifth time this season. He pitched well in three of those four outings but he has permitted a .926 OPS to current Tigers hitters across 83 career plate appearances.
The Tigers will start Tyler Holton but likely use Reese Olson (3.51 xERA, 14.6% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 5.01 botERA) in bulk relief as part of another "chaos" game before handing the ball back to their ace, Tarik Skubal, for Game 2 on Monday.
Olson recorded a pair of quality starts in two appearances against the Guardians this season.
I rate Cleveland's bullpen (2nd in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%, 11th in Pitching+, 16th in botERA) as the better of the two relief units (Detroit ranks 16th, 17th, 19th and 24th on the season).
Still, second-half results are much more comparable (Cleveland 12th, 8th, 10th, 13th; Detroit 10th, 13th, 17th, 15th) — and the Tigers will continue to overperform in the playoffs if AJ Hinch gives opposing hitters a new look every time through the batting order.
I project Guardians relievers for a 3.4 model-weighted ERA on Monday, compared to 3.66 for the Tigers.
Similarly, season-long results prefer Cleveland's offense (100 wRC+, 17th vs. 95 wRC+, 21st for Detroit). However, the results flipped in the second half (Detroit 94 wRC+, 20th; Cleveland 93 wRC+, 23rd), and the Guardians are in their lesser split (95 wRC+ vs. righties, 113 vs. lefties). I still project an offensive edge for Cleveland (projected 107 vs. 99 wRC+), with both teams facing a right-handed starter.
The Guardians offense (20.2% K%, 5th) puts a much higher number of balls in play than the Tigers' (24.3%, 23rd), and they hit for substantially more power. Still, by expected stats, these are the two worst offenses remaining in the playoffs (22nd and 27th by xwOBA — the rest of the field is in the top 10).
However, along with their AL Central rival Royals, these are two of the three best defensive clubs remaining in these playoffs, and both clubs will hope to use run prevention and their dominant bullpens to guide their way to the World Series.
I set this total at 6.56 runs and would bet Under 7 to -108, with moderate temperatures (67 degrees at first pitch), wind blowing in (5-6 mph from right field), and a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the dish (Adam Beck, career 53-45-5 to the Under, +$415, +4.41% ROI).
Pick: Under 7 (to -108)
Zerillo's Mets vs Phillies Moneyline Prediction
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 7 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 7 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
The Phillies won their season series 7-6 against the Mets and hope to avoid an upset loss in the NLDS in the first playoff meeting between these NL East rivals.
The Mets will activate Kodai Senga (career 3.70 xFIP, 18.6% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 4.63 botERA) – who only tossed 5 1/3 MLB innings this season — to lead a bullpen game ahead of David Peterson (4.58 xERA, 10.8% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.54 botERA) and Tylor Megill (4.22 xERA, 17.5% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.92 botERA).
Megill, who was excellent on Monday against the Braves, is potentially the most helpful option. New York only has one other lefty in its bullpen (Danny Young) and would prefer to save Peterson to use against Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott or Brandon Marsh in multiple games in this series rather than burning him in long relief in Game 1.
Senga's workload and potential pitch count are significant question marks. The righty missed the majority of the season with a shoulder injury, strained his calf in his lone MLB start and experienced triceps tightness while rehabbing in his calf in September.
Zack Wheeler (2.81 xERA, 21.9% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 2.97 botERA) undoubtedly gives the Phillies the starting pitching advantage, and Wheeler has been lights out in the postseason (2.42 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 24.4% K-BB%).
Moreover, the Phillies have the better bullpen (6th in xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 7th in Pitching+, 7th in botERA) compared to the Mets (5th, 4th, 27th, and 25th, respectively). I project the Phillies bullpen for a 3.40 model-weighted ERA, compared to 3.78 for the Mets. However, New York has better second-half results (7th in xFIP and K-BB%) than the Phillies (20th by both metrics).
The Mets may have the better lineup, too, ranking 7th in wRC+ (109) on the season, one spot ahead of the Phillies (108 wRC+, 8th) both on the season and in the second half (106 and 105 wRC+, 11th and 12th, respectively).
Both teams are in their lesser split against a right-handed pitcher. Both posted a 118 wRC+ against southpaw pitching this season, and we could see left-handed starting pitchers deployed by both teams in Games 3 and 4.
Philadelphia runs the bases better (6th vs. 24th in BsR). Still, the Mets may have the defensive advantage, besting the Phillies in both defensive metrics (DRS and OAA) this season while doing their best defensive work in the year's second half (ranked in the bottom five of team DRS into June).
Philadelphia's most significant advantage over the Mets is its starting pitching depth, but that matters less in a five-game series than it might in a seven-game NLCS.
In this matchup, I projected the Mets around +147 (40.5% implied) and would bet their moneyline to +160 (38.5% implied), reflecting an edge of at least 2% or higher compared to my number and the same price target as their series moneyline.
My total aligns with the market (projected 7.1) after reducing the scoring environment due to plate umpire Andy Fletcher (career 54.1% Under, +$2,680, +5.1% ROI)
Pick: Mets moneyline (play to +160)
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Zerillo's Royals vs Yankees Game 1 Preview
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 100o / -120u | +170 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 100o / -120u | -205 |
Michael Wacha (KC) vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
I don't show value on either the side or the total for Game 1, but I will highlight what to watch in this series.
The Yankees won five of the seven meetings between these clubs in 2024.
Gerrit Cole (3.59 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA) provides a starting pitching advantage over Michael Wacha (4.05 xERA, 14.6% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.42 botERA) in Game 1.
I project the Yankees (3.50 to 3.87 model weighted ERA) to have a slight bullpen advantage over the Royals, too (11th vs. 14th in second half xFIP, 11th vs. 10th in K-BB%, 13th vs. 20th in Pitching+, 15th vs. 12th in botERA).
The Bronx Bombers also have a better lineup (120 wRC+ vs. righties, 1st in MLB) than the Royals (99 wRC+, 16th vs. righties), which hits for substantially more power and ranked 1st in xwOBA this season (Kansas City finished 10th).
However, the Royals have a clear edge on defense and the basepaths. The Yankees rank in the top 10 by both defensive metrics (DRS and OAA) but are dead last in baserunning value or BsR. Conversely, the Royals paced MLB in OAA and ranked 7th in BsR.
Zerillo's Padres vs Dodgers Moneyline Pick
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Dylan Cease (DET) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
The Padres won the season series between these teams, 8-5 (+6 run differential).
The Dodgers' starting pitching depth is in disarray for another playoff run, with Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, River Ryan, Emmett Sheehan and Gavin Stone all sidelined.
Los Angeles opted to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.44 xERA, 22.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA), who missed three months this season with a pitching shoulder injury, ahead of Jack Flaherty in Game 1. The Japanese righty primarily excelled at the MLB level, posting a 2.53 ERA (2.82 xFIP) across 89 innings if you exclude his rough MLB debut against the Padres in Korea.
Yamamoto was likely their top option. As I'll discuss for Sunday's Game 2, Flaherty's command dipped in September, and his velocity tumbled to a season low in his final two starts.
Still, I'd only rate a fully healthy Yamamoto on par with Dylan Cease (3.32 xERA, 20.9% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.35 botERA), who had a resurgent 2024 campaign after leaving Chicago.
After his velocity dipped to 95.6 mph last season, Cease raised his velocity level (96.9 mph) back in line with his career average in 2024 while throwing his slider (47%.1%) more often than ever before (37.5% career).
San Diego has the bullpen edge — as it would over any team in MLB — after ranking 2nd in xFIP and K-BB%, and 1st by both Pitching+ and botERA in the second half. The Dodgers' bullpen ranked 19th, 18th, 17th and 16th by the same four metrics. I projected the Padres' for a 3.26 model-weighted ERA on Monday, compared to 3.60 for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers' lineup wasn't fully healthy for much of the season. Still, after Max Muncy returned to their lineup in late August, Los Angeles posted an MLB-best 135 wRC+, showcasing its massive upside. The Padres ranked 6th over that span (111 wRC+), in line with their season-long ranking.
Still, the season-long splits between the teams (118 and 111 wRC+ vs. righties) compare favorably to my projections (124 wRC+ for the Dodgers, 116 for the Padres against a right-handed pitcher). I don't think the gap is as substantial as the more recent splits might indicate.
However, the Dodgers' position players are also superior defensively (4th vs. 21st in DRS) and on the basepaths (4th vs. 11th in BsR).
Without Joe Musgrove, the Padres' pitching depth — and ability to use their bullpen as much as they wanted to — is slightly more limited. As a result, I'm not adding more Padres futures or their series price for the divisional round.
However, I will bet the Padres game-by-game, including Saturday's Game 1 (+120 or better).
Pick: Padres moneyline (+120 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Saturday, October 5
- Detroit Tigers / Cleveland Guardians, Under 7 (-104, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -108)
- New York Mets (+169, 0.5u; bet to +160)
- San Diego Padres (+126, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +120)
