Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, July 28.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (July 28)
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | +130 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | -155 |
Randy Vasquez (SD) vs. Albert Suarez (BAL)
The Orioles love to hit fly-ball pitchers. The Padres love to hit fly-ball pitchers. On Sunday, both of them will get their wish with two fly-ball pitchers working at Camden Yards.
Albert Suarez has decidedly been the better of these two arms over the course of the season, fluctuating between the rotation and the bullpen to post a solid 3.48 ERA backed by a changeup with plenty of arm-side run. He's just five days removed from the worst outing of his season, however, where he lasted just two innings and surrendered six runs on eight hits to the Marlins, and the matchup on Sunday shouldn't be any easier.
San Diego not only sits eighth in run value to changeups but has crushed fly-ball arms to the tune of a .786 OPS, which leaves their .715 OPS in the reverse split in the dust. It's a team that's found its offense in sporadic bunches, sure, but still one which is hitting .261 this month and should prove capable of doing damage against Suarez — a pitcher who falls victim to death by a million hits when he does falter.
His squad should do well to make his life a bit easier, however, against Randy Vasquez. The right-hander has turned in a tidy 2.08 ERA this month, but he's also in a tough place against the Orioles — a team with a 14.4% home run-to-fly ball ratio, which ranks second in baseball, and a .733 OPS against fly-ball types which beats its mark against ground-ballers by more than 60 points.
I expect both offenses to shine against preferable pitchers, particularly ones with poor expected numbers. I like a bunch of runs here.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-102; DraftKings) | Play to -115
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 9 -105o / -115u | +102 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9 -105o / -115u | -122 |
River Ryan (LAD) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU)
I'm sorry, but I'm just not seeing it with Spencer Arrighetti. This man won the organization's award for the top minor-league pitcher a season ago in spite of a 4.40 ERA across two levels, and he didn't even post great ratios with a strikeout rate of just 23.1% and a boisterous 13.4% walk rate.
His two starts down in Triple-A went according to plan this year, sure, but the major leagues are proving to be a level he's not capable of handling at the moment. His 4.32 Expected ERA (xERA) doesn't quite do a lot to save his actual 5.65 ERA, and while it's weighed heavily by walks, he still comes in right around the league average in Expected Batting Average (xBA) and Expected Slugging (xSLG).
The big trouble here is that the Dodgers have long been the most patient team in the league, and even in a slightly cooler period in July still managed to walk in 10.2% of plate appearances to rank fourth. L.A. still owns a solid .179 Isolated Power (ISO) over this time and with continued excellence in taking walks should be more than capable of exploiting this matchup.
Meanwhile their starter, River Ryan, might be able to pitch. He worked 5 1/3 scoreless innings last week against San Francisco in his big-league debut after posting a 3.22 ERA in the minors upon acquired by the Dodgers in 2022, and he has demonstrated a clear ability to get outs on the ground as well as pitch to a bevy of strikeouts.
I think Ryan and the Dodgers are well-positioned for a win on the road, and can't understand the pricing here.
Bet: Dodgers ML (+105; BetMGM) | Play to -110
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +130 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -155 |
DJ Herz (WAS) vs. Miles Mikolas (STL)
It very well may be time for another DJ Herz masterclass on Sunday.
The Cardinals have struggled mightily against left-handers this season — with a 90-point drop in OPS and a poor .226 average — which makes me confident in one of my favorite rising starters in the National League.
All Herz has done since being roughed up by the Mets in his big-league debut is shove, posting a .218 xBA and 3.35 xERA across eight starts, with an occasional home run doing him in. He blanked the Padres last turn in the rotation prior to back-to-back solo shots in the fifth knocked him out of the game, and that brings his total to eight home runs allowed in 36 1/3 innings.
The good news here is that along with the poor numbers, the Cardinals — as expected — have hit just 22 home runs off of lefties this season compared to 84 against right-handers. While the totals can sometimes lie to us given there are more right-handers, these numbers equate to roughly a home run in 1.9% of plate appearances versus lefties to 3% against righties, which represents a fairly large gap.
On top of that, St. Louis represents one of the hardest parks to hit home runs, so that should mean Herz is more or less in the clear here.
Miles Mikolas, meanwhile, has been on the decline over the last month and will meet a Nationals team fresh off an offensive masterpiece on Saturday to maintain their acceptable run production this month.
The Nats are a team much more geared toward contact hitting right now, hitting above the league norm this month and striking out in under 20% of plate appearances, which should put Mikolas and his .275 xBA in a spot of bother.
Bet: Nationals ML +130 (Caesars Sportsbook) | Play to +105
