Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, August 1.
MLB Predictions Thursday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 1)
Trevor Rogers (MIA) vs. Ben Lively (CLE)
As of Wednesday night, the Orioles haven't officially announced Trevor Rogers as their Thursday starter, but he's lined up on full rest (last pitched July 26). He is a superior option to Dean Kremer (last pitched July 27).
Rogers was a curious deadline-day acquisition by Baltimore, which needed a star-caliber arm—like Tarik Skubal or Garret Crochet—more than a controllable innings eater.
Rogers (4.85 xERA, 8.3% K-BB%, 84 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 98 Pitching+) was drastically more effective in 2021 (3.37 xERA, 20.2% K-BB%, 99 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), but his stuff and command have gradually eroded.
Rogers's fastball velocity (92 mph) has declined 2.6 percent in two years, and the pitch's Stuff+ rating has declined from 91 to 69. In his past three starts, Rogers has averaged between 91.1 and 91.3 mph – the lowest average fastball velocity of his career – and I'm concerned about his health:
Rogers has a solid changeup (114 Stuff+) but only throws the pitch 23% of the time.
Ben Lively (3.63 xERA, 14.1% K-BB%, 70 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 95 Pitching+) has been one of the biggest surprises in 2024 (5.38 ERA, 5.03 xERA last season with the Reds). I'd still give Rogers the slight edge, but these pitchers project fairly comparably).
However, Cleveland has the bullpen advantage, particularly after Baltimore deployed Keegan Akin, Craig Kimbrel, and Burch Smith for the second time in three days.
On the season, Cleveland's bullpen ranks 1st in xFIP (3.54) and K-BB% (18.2%), while Baltimore ranks 11th (3.64) and 10th (15.2%), respectively.
I align with the market over the first five innings (F5) but show an edge on the Guardians' full-game moneyline with that anticipated bullpen advantage.
Cleveland could also have some additional travel and rest advantages; the Guardians had a rare off day on Wednesday, while the Orioles played for the sixth consecutive day and had to travel afterward.
Bets: Guardians Full-Game Moneyline (-113 or better)
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs. Keider Montero (DET)
Even though the Royals acquired Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey to improve their bullpen before the deadline, I still give Detroit a slight relief pitching edge over Kansas City in this series.
The Royals have the edge in the starting pitching matchup; Keider Montero (5.35 xERA, 12.6% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 4.30 botERA) has pitched like a replacement-level arm for the Tigers after posting underwhelming numbers in Triple-A (5.14 xFIP, 10.7% K-BB% in 2024; 4.86 xFIP, 18.1% K-BB% in 2023).
However, Seth Lugo has been fortunate to sustain a 2.66 ERA (3.95 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB%) with his lowest pitch modeling metrics (98 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 100 Pitching+) of the pitch tracking era (since 2020).
Despite the ERA improvement, Lugo is seemingly no better than he was last year, with a low BABIP (.264 vs. .285 career) and a high strand rate (80.3% vs. 77% career); projection systems put his rest-of-season FIP range between 3.91 and 4.22, compared to Montero's range of 3.90 to 4.81.
Offensively, the Royals continue to show drastic home/road splits, with the lowest strikeout rate (16.7%) at home – alongside an 8% walk rate (22nd) – compared to a 20.2% strikeout rate on the road (5th) alongside a 6.3% walk rate (29th).
Like Cleveland, Detroit could also have additional travel and rest advantages over their visiting opponent; the Tigers had a rare off day on Wednesday, while the Royals played for the sixth consecutive day and had to travel afterward.
Bets: Tigers Full-Game Moneyline (+136 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, August 1
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- Cleveland Guardians (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -113)
- Colorado Rockies / Los Angeles Angels, Over 8.5 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -110)
- Detroit Tigers (+149, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +136)
- Miami Marlins F5 (+165, 0.25u) at Bet365 (small to +155)
- Miami Marlins (+188, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +165)
- St. Louis Cardinals / Chicago Cubs, Over 7.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -115)
