Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, July 11.
MLB Predictions Thursday | Expert Picks & Previews Today (July 11)
Spener Howard (CLE) vs. Jack Flaherty (DET)
Among the 149 pitchers who have tossed at least 50 innings this season, Jack Flaherty ranks 1st in xFIP (2.33, 2nd in K-BB% (28.9%), and 7th in xERA (2.89)
Interestingly, Flaherty's Stuff+ rating (96) is nearly identical to last season's mark (95), although his slider (84.9 mph) has ticked to a career-high – 1.1 mph above his career low (83.8 mph) from 2022.
Regardless, Flaherty has posted career-best indicators and results on par with his early career success in St. Louis:
Flaherty gives the Tigers a significant starting pitching advantage against recent Guardians acquisition Spencer Howard (4.98 xERA, 8.8% K-BB%, 88 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+) – now with his fourth team in four seasons.
Otherwise, Cleveland is the better team. Defensively, they lead MLB with 53 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), while the Tigers are near league-average (+6, 16th). Outs Above Average (OAA) prefers Detroit (11th vs. 13th). Still, in my model, Cleveland's expected lineup projects significantly better defensively, worth as much as five percent toward their win probability for Thursday.
Cleveland's is superior against right-handed pitching. During the season, they rank 12th (104 wRC+) against righties, while the Tigers are 24th (92 wRC+). For Thursday, I project the Guardians for a 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a projected 86 wRC+ for the Tigers.
Lastly, the Guardians have the stronger bullpen, ranking 2nd in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%, 11th in Stuff+, and 16th in Pitching+. The Tigers bullpen ranks 15th, 17th, 29th, and 22nd by the same for measurements.
Bets: Guardians Moneyline (+105 or better)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Aaron Civale (MIL)
Among that same group of 149 pitchers who have tossed at least 50 innings this season, Paul Skenes ranks 2nd in xFIP (2.34) behind Flaherty, 5th in xERA (2.76) ahead of Flaherty, and 3rd in K-BB% (28.4%) – a half point behind Flaherty.
Skenes is immediately elite – ranking fourth among that same group – sandwiched between Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler – with a 108 Pitching+ rating. Aside from Jacob deGrom (2.30) and Mason Miller (2.32), Skenes (2.68) has the third-lowest rest-of-season FIP projection from Steamer.
Still, Skenes hasn't pitched past the seventh inning yet, and the Brewers should have a late-game bullpen advantage if they can keep the game close in the early stages.
They're also the better defensive team (2nd in DRS, 2nd in OAA) compared to the Pirates (18th and 25th) and own the superior offensive splits in this matchup (7th vs. 27th against right-handed pitching).
Aaron Civale (4.15 xERA, 15.5% K-BB%) has carried an ERA north of five, thanks to a litany of longballs (19 in 92 innings, 1.86 HR/9). However, projections still view Civale closer to a league-average arm (career 4.12 ERA, 4.10 xFIP) in the future. He owns similar velocity levels and underlying indicators to his encouraging 2023 campaign (3.46 xERA, 3.69 xERA), although his Stuff+ has dipped by four points (from 104 to 100) thanks to a lessened curveball.
I set this total at 7.16 runs as the Brewers get their first look at Skenes.
Bets: Brewers Moneyline (+107 or better) | Under 8 (7.5, -103 or better)
Landon Knack (LAD) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
I still think that Landon Knack (4.18 xERA, 15.8% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+) may end up as a high-leverage reliever with a big fastball (110 Stuff+) and slider (117) but ineffective third and fourth options.
You would figure his effectiveness would wear down when he runs out of options for opposing hitters, but Knack hasn't shown any connective times through the order trends (in fact, batters have hit him hardest the first time through).
Aaron Nola (3.43 xERA, 18.2% K-BB%, 102 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) has a reasonably significant career sample where he's been a slightly better pitcher at home (3.23 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 23.1% K-BB%) than on the road (4.19 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 18.2% K-BB%).
Despite deploying eight combined relievers on Wednesday, both bullpens' critical relievers are relatively well-rested for Thursday.
There's a chance Bryce Harper will sit again on Thursday after missing Wednesday's matchup with a bruised hand – which would only move this total down further. Still, I\ project the number at 8.75 runs with Harper back in and the best possible lineups for both teams.
The Phillies bullpen (1st in xFIP, 1st in K-BB%, 2nd in Stuff+, 5th in Pitching+) has been a shutdown group all season, particularly with a lead.
Bets: Under 9.5 (9.5, +100 or better)
Justin Steele (CHC) vs. Albert Suarez (BAL)
In May, the Orioles were swept for the first time in 107 series – more than two years.
They have not been swept at home since August 27-29, 2021, and will look to avoid that fate on Thursday after dropping their first two games against the Cubs.
Justin Steele (2.98 xERA, 18.4% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) provides Chicago with a clear starting pitching advantage against Albert Suarez (4.01 xERA, 10.2% K-BB%, 89 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+).
Offensively, the Cubs have taken a significant step back this season (95 wRC+, 19th) compared to their 2023 campaign (104 wRC+, 12th), when they finished 6th in run scoring (3rd in the NL behind the Braves and Dodgers).
The Orioles have the superior lineup – both offensively and defensively – and the better bullpen, too, but Steele provides a significant enough advantage against Suarez to generate value on Chicago.
Bets: Cubs F5 Moneyline (+100 or better) | Cubs Full-Game Moneyline (+110 or better) | Under 8.5 (-105 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, July 11
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (+105, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -108)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+100, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +108)
- Chicago Cubs F5 (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to +100)
- Chicago Cubs (+115, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +110)
- Chicago Cubs / Baltimore Orioles, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -105)
- Cleveland Guardians (+118, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +105)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118 or 9.5, +100)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+120, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +107)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 8 (-112, 0.5u) at DraftKings (Bet to 7.5, -103)
- New York Yankees / Tampa Bay Rays, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +100 or 8.5, -118)
- Toronto Blue Jays / San Francisco Giants, Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
