Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, July 25.
MLB Predictions Thursday | 2 Expert Picks & Previews Today
Chris Sale (ATL) vs. Luis Severino (NYM)
Chris Sale has had a scheduled start canceled due to weather each of the past two days. After skipping the All-Star game, he will finally take the ball for the first time in 11 days; either factor could affect his performance.
Conversely, Luis Severino will start on regular rest after tossing six shutout innings last Saturday against the Marlins.
Sale (2.69 xERA, 26.9% K-BB%, 103 Stuff+, 103 Locaiton+, 102 Pitching+) is the current favorite for NL Cy Young (+145 best), ahead of Zack Wheeler (+180) and Paul Skenes (+350).
Sale currently leads in NL pitching WAR (3.7, ahead of Wheeler at 3.2 and Skenes at 2.2), and both updated end-of-season projections have him finishing atop the NL WAR leaderboard (by 0.2 to 0.4 WAR over Wheeler and 1.2 to 1.9 WAR over Skenes).
Skenes has been dominant but is already at 102 innings between Triple-A and the majors this season after tossing about 130 innings between college and the minors last year.
He should run up against innings limitations in September and is unlikely to meet the minimum innings threshold (160 or more) to win the award as a starting pitcher (Corbin Burnes 167 in 2021; David Cone 171 in 1994).
Best pitching seasons since 2006 with FEWER than 162 IP, and where they ranked in Cy Young voting (plus CC in greatest half-season ever, who finished 5th)
It is essentially impossible to win Cy
2021 Rodon (and Lynn) offers Skenes best hopehttps://t.co/k4X7plNCB2https://t.co/8o9HUGsTwGpic.twitter.com/jtqE3zC2UX
— Tangotiger 🍁 (@tangotiger) July 24, 2024
Sale is undoubtedly a better pitcher than Luis Severino (3.72 xERA, 10% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 100 Pitching+). I've noted Severino's increase in sinker usage (27.3%) and a corresponding bump in groundball rate (48.4%, up from 42.2% last season) – alleviating some concerns regarding a career-low 18.3% strikeout rate (25% career, 28-36% at peak).
Still, the Braves' current lineup has an entirely different look. On Monday, Ozzie Albies joined Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II on the injured list.
At present, the Mets have the more dangerous offense, projecting in my model for a 118 wRC+ against southpaw pitching, compared to a 98 wRC+ for the Braves against a right-handed starter.
Over the past thirty days, the Mets have a 126 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (7th), compared to the Braves' 84 wRC+ against righties (27th).
The Braves have been slightly better against lefties (101 wRC+, 20th); the Mets have also crushed righties (127 wRC+, 3rd) as their offense has heated up.
Since June 1, Francisco Lindor owns a .291/.385/.547 triple slash line (166 wRC+). Jeff McNeil (.640 OPS, 86 wRC+) is heating up, too – with four doubles and four homers in his past eight games.
Bets: Mets F5 Moneyline (+110 or better) | Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+103 or better) | Under 7 (-119 or 7, +100 or better)
Ross Stripling (OAK) vs. Kenny Rosenberg (LAA)
The Athletics will activate Ross Stripling (4.36 xERA, 9.1% K-BB%, 89 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 99 Pitching+ from the IL on Thursday to face Angels' southpaw Kenny Rosenberg (career 5.08 xFIP, 8.5% K-BB%, 74 Stuff+, 93 Location+, 99 Pitching+).
The A's are likely hoping to audition and flip Stripling before the trading deadline, although I'm a bit concerned about his numbers (8 2/3 IP, 15 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 2 K) across three minor-league rehab outings.
Still, Rosenberg is a 29-year-old whom the Angels have seemingly held back from the majors (combined 51 appearances in the minors over the past three seasons) despite their big league club showing a desperate need for effective starting pitching.
Rosenberg's walk rate improved in Triple-A this season (7.5%; down from 10.3% in 2023 and 10.1% in 2022), and his Location+ rating has improved at the MLB level (88 in 2022, 93 in 2023, 101 in 2022). However, his strikeout rate dipped in the minors (21%, down from 27% in 2023 and 23.3% in 2022), and his overall K-BB% (13.5% vs. 16.6% last season) has decreased.
The A's offense has been red hot, leading MLB with a 139 wRC+ over the past thirty days (Mets rank 2nd at 127). Moreover, they rank first against both righties (130 wRC+) and lefties (186 wRC+) over that stretch, but they have torched southpaw pitching with a .303/.406/.605 triple-slash line over that span.
On the season, Oakland ranks 12th against left-handed pitching (109 wRC+); the Angels are 26th against righties (90 wRC+) and 24th (91 wRC+) over the past thirty days.
I projected the A's for a 108 wRC+ against a left-handed starter, compared to a 96 wRC+ for the Angels against a righty.
Oakland has the bullpen advantage, too. Angels' relievers rank 30th in xFIP (4.58), 27th in K-BB% (10.9%), and 28th in Pitching+ (98) on the season. Moreover, they could be down three of their best relievers – closer Carlos Estevez and setup men Luis Garcia and Hans Crouse – who pitched for the third time in four days on Wednesday.
Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (-103 or better) | Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (-107 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, July 25
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- New York Mets F5 (+120, 0.5u; small to +110)
- New York Mets (+110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -103)
- New York Mets / Atlanta Braves, Under 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -119 or 7, +100)
- Oakland Athletics F5 (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to +100)
- Oakland Athletics (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -107)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-165, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -175)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (+120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +116)
