Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, June 27.
MLB Predictions Thursday | 2 Expert Picks & Previews (June 27)
Twins vs. Diamondbacks
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9.5 102o / -124u | -104 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 9.5 102o / -124u | -112 |
David Festa (MIN) vs. Jordan Montgomery (ARI)
The Twins will call up top-100 prospect David Festa (No. 99 overall, per MLB pipeline) to make his MLB debut on Thursday. The 6-foot-6 righty owned excellent pitch modeling metrics in Triple-A (111 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 108 Pitching+) and posted high strikeout and walk numbers in his minor-league career (29.9% K%, 9.5% BB%).
Festa has three above-average pitches: a plus fastball (60 scouting grade; around 95-96 mph, but can touch 98 mph), a hard slider (88-89 mph) — which looks like a problem for opposing hitters — and a solid changeup (87-89 mph). Festa prefers his slider against righties and the changeup against lefties while occasionally showing his curveball to give opposite-handed hitters a different look.
Festa's command has been the biggest concern in his development, but he only has one walk (and two hit batters) across his past three Triple-A Starts (22 K in 16 2/3 innings). Clearly, the Twins saw enough to bring him to the show:
Jordan Montgomery (5.71 ERA, 5.03 xERA, 7.9% K-BB%) has struggled this season after missing spring training. He was relatively dominant in the 2023 postseason (31 IP, 2.90 ERA) after a 2023 campaign (3.98 xERA, 15.2% K-BB%) that aligned with his career averages (31 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) — and he didn't have any offseason injury news.
Montgomery's four-seam and sinker velocity are down this season (from 93.3 mph to 91.6 mph), but the Stuff+ rating on his sinker remains stable (91), year over year. And he might be finding his form of late — Montgomery has averaged 92.2 mph on his fastball in his past three starts while recording 15 strikeouts in 16 innings.
He looked back to his postseason form in his last outing against the Phillies (6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K), although he did benefit from some calls behind the dish.
Projection systems expect Montgomery to pitch closer to his career averages moving forward (projected FIP range of 3.80 to 4.30), which is a similar range as David Festa (projected FIP range of 3.80 to 4.22). I set Wednesday afternoon's total at 8.45 runs.
Bets: Under 9.5 (or 9, -111 or better)
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| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -138 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +118 |
Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. Jose Berrios (TOR)
Both the Blue Jays and Yankees faced rain delays on Wednesday, but while the Blue Jays game in Boston was suspended until August — allowing them to retreat home to Toronto with a fully rested bullpen — the Yankees waited around for a couple of hours in Queens only to get trounced 12-2 by the Mets. They were left to take an early-morning flight over the border and likely didn't arrive at their hotel until 3 a.m. or later.
Jose Berrios (3.43 ERA, 4.77 xERA, 11.6% K-BB%) is a pitcher I rarely back, and I have avoided betting on the Blue Jays whenever possible this season. I liked Berrios as a prospect, but I have found him to be generally overvalued in the betting market throughout his MLB career.
Concerningly, his strikeout rate has dipped by 6% this season (from 23.5% to 17.5%), putting his K-BB% (11.6%) below the MLB average (13.9%).
His velocity has held steady compared to last season (down 0.3 to 0.5 mph on his four-seamer and sinker), but pitching models still think Berrios's arsenal has taken a big step back (Stuff+ down from 100 to 92), likely correlated to the decrease in both strikeout rate and whiff rate (-3% vs. 2023).
The Blue Jays have bailed Berrios out with stellar defense, ranking first in Defensive Runs Saved (+53) and second in Outs Above Average (+25); the Yankees rank seventh by the same two defensive measurements. Per OAA, Berrios is the 11th-luckiest pitcher in baseball (+5 OAA behind him); Aaron Nola (+10) ranks first, ahead of Colin Rea (+7), Joe Ryan (+7) and Framber Valdez (+7).
Carlos Rodon (3.86 ERA, 4.58 xERA, 4.40 xFIP, 15.8% K-BB%) has shown big stuff all year (121 Stuff+; the highest of his career) but has struggled with command (97 Location+ vs. 103 in 2022). Rodon has gotten shelled in his past two outings (13 runs in 8 2/3 IP).
His velocity and stuff (125 Stuff+) have held steady, but his control worsened (92 Location+) during those outings. Rodon remains a highly enigmatic pitcher to forecast, but it's easy to see the correlation between his xERA and K-BB% in recent seasons (4.58 and 15.8% in 2024; 5.34 and 12.6% in 2023; 2.64 and 26.1% in 2022; 3.68 and 27.9% in 2021).
Currently, Rodon is pitching below his career averages (3.99 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB%) and projects as a mid-rotation starter whose game logs should be more Jekyll and Hyde-esque than consistent from one outing to the next. Hopefully, we catch him on another off-night amid his recent downswing.
Either way, I make this game around a coin flip in both halves.
Bets: Blue Jays F5 Moneyline (+113 or better) | Blue Jays Full-Game Moneyline (+109 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, June 26
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- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-176, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -180)
- Minnesota Twins / Arizona Diamondbacks, Under 9.5 (-124, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -130 or 9, -111)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (+130, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +113)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+120, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +109)
