Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, July 3.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Thursday, I preview Tigers vs. Nationals, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Angels vs. Braves and Giants vs. Diamondbacks. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, July 3
Tigers vs. Nationals
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | -165 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | +135 |
Dietrich Enns vs. Jake Irvin
Both of these offenses are red hot, as they scored 26 runs combined in Wednesday's doubleheader.
Before those results, Tigers were No. 1 in the MLB in wRC+ (128) over the last 30 days, third (136) over the last 14 days and second (135) over the last week. Meanwhile, the Nationals were eighth (115 wRC+) over the last 30 days and 11th (109) over the last week.
Detroit is still posting these strong numbers despite Kerry Carpenter (116 wRC+) being on the injured list, making it even more impressive.
As for the pitchers, Jake Irvin is near-replacement level, with a 5.40 xERA, 4.61 xFIP and 9.7% K-BB%. He's currently posting a career-high 47.6% hard-hit rate, a high home-run rate (1.50 HR/9 for his career, 1.73 H/9 in 2025) and his projected FIP range is 4.54-4.95.
On the flip side, Dietrich Enns is much more intriguing. This is his second stint in the MLB (he played in the KBO from 2022-2024), and he showed three plus pitchers in his 2025 debut (110 Stuff+ fastball, 108 changeup, 118 cutter).
He has a projected FIP range of 3.43-4.77 and OOPSY has him at 3.93.
The Nationals' bullpen is 30th in all key performance indicators (xERA, K-BB%, Pitching+, botERA), both over the whole season and in more recent splits (last 30 days). They're also bad defensively, too, sitting 23rd in Defensive Runs Saved (-17) and 28th in Outs Above Average (-19).
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 to -110)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 100o / -120u | -125 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 100o / -120u | +105 |
Clarke Schmidt vs. Chris Bassitt
The roof is likely to be open again on Thursday evening at the Rogers Centre, as there's no rain currently in the forecast, and it'll be 78 degrees at first pitch.
If the roof is open, that'll provide a slight boost to scoring (about +5% given the weather). That'll increase my overnight projection from around nine runs to 9.37.
In three games so far in this series, there's been two home runs with the roof closed and eight with the roof open, showing the conditions will favor the offense again.
To reiterate from Wednesday, Rogers Centre has seen a Park Factor uptick in 2025 of +8% runs and +34% HR vs. +0% (neutral) runs and +2% HR from 2022-2024.
They moved in walls before 2024 season, as left-center field is seven feet closer and right-center field is 16 feet closer.
Also, they reduced foul territory by 3,000 square feet, which means fewer cheap outs for pitchers.
These are two process-driven offenses, with the Yankees ranking first in SEAGER (swing selection) and the Blue Jays ranking 10th in the same category.
They work opposing pitchers, and every key reliever on both sides has pitched multiple times in the last 3-5 days. Plus, there's bullpen familiarity given these are division rivals.
Bo Bichette (knee) was feeling better on Wednesday and was available to pinch-hit, giving us another possible edge to the total.
Bet over 8.5 (-117) to 9 (-108) if Bichette is in and 9 (+100) if he’s out again.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Play to 9)
Angels vs. Braves
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -120o / 100u | -135 |
Jose Soriano vs. Bryce Elder
It's going to be hot in Atlanta on Thursday (87 degrees, feels like 90), with five mph winds blowing straight out.
Bryce Elder is extremely hittable, as he's currently posting a 5.68 xERA with a career-high barrel and hard-hit rate. He has a high ground-ball percentage (50.1% for his career), which is his only positive attribute.
Every one of Elder's pitches has a less than 99 Stuff+ (91 overall) and his botERA is 4.63.
Meanwhile, Jose Soriano's numbers are near league average (4.03 xERA, 9.4% K-BB%), but he's had Jekyll and Hyde performances.
- June 4: Gave up seven runs in four innings at Boston
- June 10-21: Combined 20 2/3 innings pitched, giving up 11 runs, two runs and six walks while posting 28 strikeouts
- June 27: Gave up eight runs in four innings vs. Washington
To reiterate from Wednesday, the Angels' offense is dangerous, as it's 12th vs. right-handed pitchers in wRC+ in the month of June (106). It's second in the MLB this season in Damage per Batted Ball Event, sitting between the Yankees (first) and the Dodgers (third). The Braves rank sixth in this category.
Atlanta is a more process-driven offense, ranking seventh in SEAGER (swing selection) compared to the Angels' ranking of 15th.
Also, the Angels have a terrible bullpen (27th in xFIP, 25th in K-BB%, 24th in botERA) and team defense (29th in DRS, 27th in OAA).
I'm projecting 9.8 runs in Thursday's game, so bet the over at 9 or 9.5.
Pick: Over 9 (-115 to -122) or 9.5 (-102)
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -120 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +100 |
Robbie Ray vs. Brandon Pfaadt
It's been a resurgent 2025 for Robbie Ray (2.91 xERA, 18% K-BB%).
Pitch modeling (98 Stuff+, 4.42 botERA) doesn’t fully buy the results, but that's partially explained by his changeup (13% usage, 80 Stuff+), which has produced good results (.309 xwOBA). Models tend to miss on left-handed pitchers' changeups sometimes, and that's showing here.
Ray hasn’t thrown the off-speed pitch this much since his rookie year, and he didn’t throw it at all over the last two seasons.
On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is still struggling (6.78 xERA) despite strong underlying indicators and his velocity remaining intact.
He has a 6.26 ERA vs. a 3.73 xFIP in June, along with a 15.7% K-BB% and a 3.98 botERA.
Pitch modeling has gone down drastically on Pfaadt this season, as he had a 103 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+ and a 2.84 botERA in 2024 that's changed to 97, 98 and 3.86, respectively, this season.
The Giants' offense is in its superior split. San Francisco has a wRC+ of 88 (22nd in the MLB) against right-handed pitching since the Rafael Devers trade while posting a wRC+ of 61 (27th) against left-handed pitching.
San Francisco had a wRC+ of 101 (17th) vs. righties before the trade and is projected at 105 currently.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks' offense is in its lesser split, sitting second vs. righties in wRC+ (120) and 10th vs. lefties (100).
Josh Naylor has a career 124 wRC+ against right-handers and a 87 wRC+ against lefties.
The Giants are also better defensively, as they're 10th in Defensive Runs Saved and 13th in Outs Above Average compared to the Diamondbacks' rankings of 24th and 21st, respectively, in those stats.
San Francisco has a much better pen, too.
It's third in xFIP, 13th in K-BB% and 10th in Pitching+ compared to the Diamondbacks' rankings of 18th, 16th and 19th, respectively. The Giants' bullpen grades about a full run better on an ERA projection, too.
I'm projecting the Giants at -125 on the moneyline for this game, so this is a good value.
Pick: Giants ML (-110 to 117)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 3
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- Giants ML (-110 to -117)
- Twins vs. Marlins Under 8.5 (-118) to 8 (-110)
- Tigers vs. Nationals Over 9.5 (+100 to -110)
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 (-117) to 9 (-108)
- Angels vs. Braves Over 9 (-115 to -122) or 9.5 (-102)
- Brewers vs. Mets Under 8.5 (-115) to 8 (-103)
