A new week of baseball is upon us with 12 games spread throughout Monday evening.
With more baseball comes more opportunities to find value, and our analysts have done just that. They're on four of tonight's 12 games, including Blue Jays vs. Rays, Dodgers vs. Braves, Astros vs. Brewers and Athletics vs. Mariners.
Here are our four best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, May 22nd.
Monday MLB Best Bets, May 22
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Monday, May 22 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 8.5 (-125)  |
Chris Bassitt is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now: 23 straight innings of shutout ball. But he is drastically overperforming. He has a 3.07 ERA, but his xERA is up at 4.37. In fact, in his last three starts where he hasn’t given up a run, against Pittsburgh his xFIP was 5.08, against Atlanta it was 4.08 and against the Yankees it was 3.06.
It’s a small sample size, but his home and away splits are a little concerning with his ERA being over two runs higher on the road, along with his wOBA allowed being .100 points higher as well.
The pitch that Bassitt is drastically overperforming with is his sinker, which he throws over 40% of the time. It’s allowing a .152 batting average versus a .247 xBA. The Stuff+ on that pitch isn’t great as well with only a 90 rating. The Rays have not only been the best lineup in baseball, but they’re crushing right handed sinkers with a .270 xBA and .388 xwOBA.
The Rays will be going with a bullpen game today with Trevor Kelley being the opener for a bullpen game for the Rays, but their bullpen actually has been quite bad, as Tampa Bay has the second highest xFIP in baseball at 4.80, but their ERA is at 3.91, so they are due to regress. Toronto is a top 10 offense by wOBA, so the Rays bullpen is a little overinflated here on the total.
I have 8.92 runs projected for this game.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-125)
Dodgers vs. Braves
Monday, May 22 7:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Braves ML (-150)  |
By Nick Shlain
Braves starter Charlie Morton has been solid this year with a 4.30 xFIP, 23% strikeout percentage, 8% walk percentage and 49% ground ball percentage.
Morton’s last two starts have been exceptional. Two starts ago, he struck out seven batters in six innings while allowing two earned runs to the Boston Red Sox, and in his last game he tossed 6 ⅔ scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters against the Texas Rangers. You have to be impressed by that recent form from the veteran right-hander.
On the other side, Gavin Stone will take the ball for the Dodgers. Stone had a 4.04 ERA at Triple-A this season and in his first major league start he allowed four earned runs, eight hits and two walks in four innings to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers also have the fifth-worst bullpen by ERA in all of baseball this season (4.70). Atlanta’s bullpen is nearly a run better at 3.86.
I really don’t see the Dodgers pulling the upset here and see value in the Atlanta moneyline.
Pick: Braves ML (-150)
Astros vs. Brewers
Monday, May 22 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 7.5 (-105)  |
By D.J. James
Cristian Javier and Corbin Burnes make quite the starting pitching matchup for a Monday night.
Javier and the Astros have propelled themselves to striking distance of first place in the American League West. Javier holds a 3.25 ERA and 4.05 xERA. However, his month of May looks like he performed last season, dominating teams with a 2.84 ERA over 19 innings with 24 strikeouts and only five walks. He ranks in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate and the 76th percentile in walk rate.
Walks were the only area in which he struggled in 2022, so this could mean future success this season.
Burnes ranks in the 70th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 68th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. His ERA is 3.48 with an xERA of 3.49, so expectations are in line with results.
In May, these two teams have had trouble with hitting right-handers, and having to face two of the MLB’s best starters does not bode well for either. Houston has a team wRC+ off of righties in May of 87. Milwaukee’s is 88.
In relief this month, Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in xFIP at 4.73, while Houston’s bullpen xFIP is 3.82.
Even if Milwaukee’s bullpen might not have an easy game, this game should go under. I'd play under 7.5 to -120.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Athletics vs. Mariners
Monday, May 22 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Athletics ML (+270)  |
By Kenny Ducey
The Seattle Mariners are not a good baseball team. They’re 22-24, they own a 95 wRC+ for the season and they’ve struck out in just under 26% of their plate appearances. Their pitching has been the only thing really working well for them, and while they have gotten some good efforts in recent weeks they’re still coming into Monday the losers of five games in their last seven.
I don’t think it’s unfathomable that they could lose this game, which makes this line sort of mind-blowing to me. Kyle Muller hasn’t had a very fun time in his nine big-league starts this year, but he did have plenty of success down in Triple-A last year and is capable of pitching well against an offense which ranks 27th in wRC+ to lefties. The biggest number in that split is Seattle’s low 7.7% walk rate, which is notable considering Muller’s struggles in that department.
It also wouldn’t be a big shock to see Luis Castillo struggle in this one. His ground ball rate continues to plummet, and now rests at 42.4% through nine starts – 11 points below his career average. That’s a troubling sight considering his hard-hit rate is all the way up at 48.2%, which puts him in the bottom 10% of all pitchers.
The combination has resulted in a horrific .431 xSLG, so if the A’s can just make contact with the baseball here I think good things will happen. They’ve struggled to do so all season long, but there is a clear opportunity here for a rare Oakland win.
If there was ever a time to bet a 10-38 team, I think this is your spot.
Pick: Athletics ML (+270)
