Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, August 27.
MLB Predictions Tuesday, Expert Picks, Odds, and Preview for Today, August 27
Sean Zerillo's Astros vs. Phillies MLB Best Bet
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
Justin Verlander and Aaron Nola have shown decreased underlying metrics in the pitch clock era over the past two seasons — relative to their respective levels in 2022.
Verlander (3.67 xERA, 15.1% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 4.61 botERA) won the AL Cy Young in 2022 (2.66 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 113 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA), but his fastball has dipped from 95 mph (94.3 career) to 93.5 mph over the same span. He's pitching more like a mid-rotation starting pitcher in his 40s than an ace.
Aaron Nola (3.91 xERA, 16.3% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.65 botERA) has shown a similar performance dip (2.74 xERA, 25.5% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 2.64 botERA), albeit with a less severe velocity dip. Still, Nola is in his age-31 season and signed a 7-year, $172m deal this past offseason; the Phillies need him to stay on the mound — and continue to eat innings — to pay off that deal.
Nola's strikeout rate has declined each of the past four seasons, and his walk rate has increased in consecutive years:
Both teams need length from their starters on Tuesday — the two deployed nine relievers combined in a 3-2 extra-innings affair on Monday — and both clubs have been playing for more than a week straight; Philadelphia last had an off-day on Monday, August 19, while the Astros haven't been off since Thursday, August 15.
Weather (87 degrees at first pitch, winds 3-4 mph out to right field) should slightly boost the offensive environment at the Bank on Tuesday. I projected the total at 9.13 runs, compared to 8.7 on a weather-neutral day.
Bets: Over 8.5 (-114 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Royals vs. Guardians Prediction & Pick
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)
Underlying metrics suggest that the respective ERAs for Michael Lorenzen (3.47) and Gavin Williams (5.13) should be flipped — Williams' underlying indicators are those of a pitcher with an ERA closer to four, while Lorenzen projects as more of a back-end, No. 5 starter, with ERA estimators nearer to five.
Williams (4.52 xERA, 4.00 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.66 botERA) has permitted a high BABIP (.335) and carried a strand rate (67.4%) below the MLB average; both ERA drivers should regress toward league averages (.289 and 72%, respectively). Moreover, rest-of-season projection systems put Williams' FIP between 3.99 and 4.14.
Conversely, Lorenzen (4.70 xERA, 4.99 xFIP, 6.6% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 5.13 botERA) has generated the lowest BABIP (.240, .278 career) and highest strand rate (82.5%, 74.6% career) of his career. Rest of season projections put Lorenzen's FIP between 4.60 and 4.94).
Typically, I'd give the Guardians the bullpen advantage, too, but their relievers have worked harder recently — including Monday's doubleheader. On Monday, the Guardians used five relievers in multi-inning stints and deployed Hunter Gaddis, Burch Smith, and Emmanuel Clase for a second consecutive day. Conversely, the Royals only have one reliever (who tossed three pitches on Sunday) who went back-to-back, and only two relievers have worked twice in three days.
Kansas City has the offensive advantage, too, ranking fourth against right-handed pitching since the All-Star Break, while Cleveland is 26th. However, the Royals remain a better offense at home (11th) than on the road (20th).
I show a sizeable edge on Cleveland's first-half moneyline but would need -135 or better to play their bullpen game moneyline.
Weather (89 degrees at first pitch, 4-6 mph winds out to right field) should provide a boost to the new offensive environment at Progressive Field, which has seen a significant increase in homers to right field in 2024 (120 Home Run Factor for left-handed hitters; 93 from 2021-2023). I projected the total at 9.23 runs.
Bets: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-155 or better) | Over 8.5 (-118 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Best Bet For Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
Sean Manaea has been on a tear over the past month, posting a 2.60 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 24.6% K-BB% over 31 innings pitched (20 H, 9 R, 7 BB, 37 K).
Manaea's command has been excellent over that span, and his pitch modeling metrics have improved too (92 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 101 Pitching+, 3.89 botERA), compared to the 106 innings prior (86 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 95 Pitching+, 4.81 botERA).
Manaea started dabbling with a cutter (84 Stuff+) in 2024 (11.5% usage rate through July 24). Still, he has essentially put the pitch away over the past month (0.2% usage rate), and his command and overall results have drastically improved.
Eduardo Rodriguez (4.65 xERA, 10.3% K-BB%, 4.11 botERA, 97 Pitching+) has looked much better in his past two outings — albeit against the Marlins and Rockies — than he did in his 2024 debut — after missing the majority of this year with a lat (back/shoulder) strain.
E-Rod's velocity (91.5 mph) is down slightly compared to last season (92.2 mph, 15.3% K-BB%, 83 Stuff) and more in line with his 2022 form (91.7 mph, 4.20 xERA, 9.7% K-BB%, 78 Stuff+). The command (108 Location+) appears to be fine, but I don't think he's necessarily 100%, either. I'd take the Over on Rodriguez's projected rest-of-season FIP range (3.76 to 4.14; 3.86 career), and he posted a 4.43 FIP in 2022, wherein I'd set his projected range between 4.15 and 4.45.
Bets: Pass after Arizona Pitching Change
Sean Zerillo's MLB Predictions and Picks for Tuesday, August 27
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- Atlanta Braves / Minnesota Twins, Over 8 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -120 or 8.5, -101)
- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (buying off of Mets F5)
- Cleveland Guardians F5 (-130, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -155)
- Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118)
- Houston Astros / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 8.5 (-103, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -114)
- Los Angeles Angels / Detroit Tigers, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -116)
- Miami Marlins / Colorado Rockies, Over 11 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -114)
- New York Mets F5 (+100, 0.5u) at BallyBet (pass after pitching change)
- Oakland Athletics / Cincinnati Reds, Under 10 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -117)
- San Diego Padres / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -108)
- San Francisco Giants / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8 (-118, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -119 or 7.5, -101)
- Texas Rangers / Chicago White Sox, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -122 or 8.5, -103)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox, Under 9.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -116)
