Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, May 14.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews
Phillies vs. Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-146 | 7.5 -115o/ -105u | -1.5 +115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+124 | 7.5 -115o/ -105u | +1.5 -138 |
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. Jose Butto (NYM)
The Phillies lineup has a couple of significant question marks for Tuesday's matinee matchup.
Kyle Schwarber pinch-hit on Monday but is dealing with lower back soreness and hasn't started since Friday, and JT Realmuto has missed the past two games with a knee injury.
Tentatively, I'm projecting both players as in, yet I still show value on the Mets and would project a more prominent edge if either Schwarber or Realmuto is sidelined.
I had both players projected in for Monday, too — when I wrote this column overnight on Sunday and took the Mets at +113. The line ultimately flipped as New York closed around -115 after announcing lineups. Edwin Diaz decided to torch that CLV.
Jose Butto (4.33 xERA, 4.31 xFIP, 12.6% K-BB%) has indicators that are around league average this season, but he has carried a 3.00 ERA thanks to a low BABIP (.231) and high strand rate (81.5%).
He has wonky command (career 10.4% walk rate), and pitching models aren't fond of his profile (87 Stuff+, 91 Location+), although he has a useful slider (101 Stuff+).
Conditions should be ripe for hitters on Tuesday afternoon — 70 degrees at first pitch with 10-12 mph winds blowing out to left field. Both bullpens are stretched a bit thin, too, and the Phillies have played consecutive extra-inning games.
Bets: Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+112 or better) | Over 7.5 (-117 or better)
Yankees vs. Twins
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-136 | 8 -114o/ -106u | -1.5 +118 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 8 -114o/ -106u | +1.5 -142 |
Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. Chris Paddack (MIN)
Carlos Rodon and Chris Paddack may be rounding into form for their respective clubs.
Rodon has posted elite Stuff+ numbers this season (116), though his command has been spotty (96 Location+). However, he hasn't walked a hitter in his past two starts (one in his past three), and his Location+ rating has improved to 103.
Paddack has shown excellent command in his return from Tommy John surgery (4.8% walk rate; 4.9% career), but he's added a slider (17.3% usage), producing far better results than Stuff+ ratings. He owns a pair of 10-strikeout efforts in his past four starts.
I'm almost certainly higher on both pitchers than most. Both teams also had Monday off to rest their bullpens, and the wind is blowing in on Tuesday, triggering the Action Labs system I regularly cite in this space.
I set the total at 7.47 runs and expect a pitchers' duel.
Bet: Under 8 (-110 or better)
Athletics vs. Astros
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+154 | 8.5 +100o/ -122u | +1.5 -137 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-184 | 8.5 +100o/ -122u | -1.5 +114 |
JP Sears (OAK) vs. Ronel Blanco (HOU)
The Astros have crushed left-handed pitching throughout their dominant AL run. Since 2017, Houston has ranked in the top three in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in every full season (not counting the pandemic-shortened season), finishing first twice and second three times with an average wRC+ of 122.
The 'Stros have struggled to find wins this season — although they've won four of five — but they remain dominant against lefties, posting a 125 wRC+.
Jeremy Pena (career 142 wRC+ vs. lefties, 91 vs. righties) and Mauricio Dubon (118 vs. lefties, 69 vs. righties since 2021) see a big boost against left-handed pitching. More importantly, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez — their two lefty sluggers — own excellent splits against same-sided pitching (140 and 155 wRC+, respectively) and show a combined eight-point dropoff compared to their righty splits.
Ronel Blanco has limited hard contact, but he is due for significant regression (.183 BABIP, 89.7% strand rate) at some point, and I set this total closer to 9.
Bet: Over 8 (8.5, -110 or better)
Rockies vs. Padres
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+225 | 7 -115o/ -105u | +1.5 -104 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-275 | 7 -115o/ -105u | -1.5 -125 |
Cal Quantrill (COL) vs. Dylan Cease (SD)
I enjoyed this graph so much last time I will show it again.
Dylan Cease is throwing his slider harder (87.6 mph) and more often (40.9%) than ever — we'll see if he continues to bump up the usage further. He used the pitch 49% of the time in his start on May 3 against Arizona.
Cease's fastball velocity is also up a tick (96.9 mph) compared to last season (95.6 mph), and he owns a career-best 32.4% strikeout rate, 30.5% called-strike plus whiff rate and 120 Stuff+ rating. He looks to be in career-best form and is a legitimate NL Cy Young Award candidate.
Bet: Padres F5 Moneyline (-280 or better)
Royals vs. Mariners
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7 -122o/ +100u | +1.5 -176 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-154 | 7 -122o/ +100u | -1.5 +146 |
Michael Wacha (KC) vs. Logan Gilbert (SEA)
The gap between Michael Wacha (projected FIP range of 4.28 to 4.30) and Logan Gilbert (projected range of 3.63 to 3.72) isn't nearly as wide as the gap between Cease and Quantrill.
Still, I set the Mariners closer to -175 for the first half. I don't show an edge on the full-game line, however, as Mariners closer Andres Munoz has pitched consecutive days, including a multi-inning stint on Monday.
Gilbert's K-BB% is essentially the same, year over year, but his strikeout rate has increased, and his hard-hit rate decreased after introducing a cutter (19% usage rate), leading to a 2.94 ERA and 3.13 xERA.
Gilbert's Stuff+ rating has also increased from 105 to 120, which is tied with Cease for the third-highest mark among qualified starters and just ahead of Corbin Burnes for the highest mark in the AL. Gilbert can beat his projections and pitch toward current indicators, which are a quarter- or half-run lower the rest of the way.
If so, he's a threat for the AL Cy Young (+2500 current) and could be worth a bet to win the award. I already have some stake at +2500 from the preseason, or I'd add it.
Bet: Mariners F5 Moneyline (-160 or better)
Reds vs. Diamondbacks
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 8.5 -110o/ -110u | -1.5 -152 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-116 | 8.5 -110o/ -110u | +1.5 -184 |
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. Slade Cecconi (ARI)
Hunter Greene (129 Stuff+) only sits behind Jared Jones (135) among qualified pitchers in Stuff+, but he still has a spotty command (96 Location+), and his K-BB% has dipped relative to last season.
Arizona is seemingly a difficult matchup for him. The Snakes have the lowest strikeout rate in the NL (19.8%) and the sixth-lowest chase rate (29.6%) in baseball. They generated five walks against six strikeouts in Greene's last start and can take advantage of the Reds' defense (20th in Defensive Runs Saved, 28th in Outs Above Average) when they put the ball in play.
Additionally, Gabriel Moreno excels at cutting down base stealers, and Cincinnati has regularly run itself into outs against Arizona.
The Reds just executed the rarely seen back to back TOOTBLAN.
— Red Reporter (@redreporter) May 14, 2024
Both bullpens imploded on Monday, but Arizona's relievers are more well-rested for Tuesday.
The Reds used six arms on Monday, including Alexis Diaz (who blew the save and took the loss), Lucas Sims, Emilio Pagan, Justin Wilson and Fernando Cruz (for a second consecutive day). And it marked the third appearance in four days for Diaz, Pagan, Sims, and Wilson.
Arizona will look to preserve Kevin Ginkel and Justin Martinez on Tuesday but should still have a sizable bullpen edge.
Bet: Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (-120 or better)
Dodgers vs. Giants
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-164 | 8 -122o/ +100u | -1.5 -104 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+138 | 8 -122o/ +100u | +1.5 -115 |
Gavin Stone (LAD) vs. Keaton Winn (SF)
These old rivals played extras on Monday, with each team deploying five relievers.
The Giants dug deeper into their pen in the loss, using Luke Jackson and Camilo Doval for the second consecutive day and Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller for the third time in four days.
Keaton Winn has imploded in consecutive starts (combined 4 1/3 IP, 12 H, 12 R, 2 BB, 1 K). I wonder if he's tipping pitches since he relies so heavily upon his splitter (career 48.7% usage rate). He has otherwise posted league-average indicators (career 3.83 xFIP, 13.4% K-BB%) and encouraging pitch modeling metrics (112 Stuff+).
Those same models dislike Gavin Stone (94 Stuff+) despite his solid slider. His underlying indicators (career 4.69 xFIP, 7.4% K-BB%) align with those models and show that Winn is the superior starter if both are at their best.
After cashing Monday's Over, I set this total at 8.86 runs and expect another high-scoring affair.
Bet: Over 8 (8.5, -104 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, May 14
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-190, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -200)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -120)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-116, 0.25u at FanDuel (small to -120)
- Chicago Cubs / Atlanta Braves, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
- Houston Astros F5 (-160, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -167)
- Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-145, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -157)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / San Francisco Giants, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, -104)
- Miami Marlins / Detroit Tigers, Over 8 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -104)
- New York Mets (+124, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +112)
- New York Mets / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -117)
- New York Yankees (-110, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -115)
- New York Yankees / Minnesota Twins, Under 8 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel and Under 8.5 (-110, 0.25u) at BetMGM (bet to 8, -110)
- Oakland Athletics / Houston Astros, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, -110)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-250, 0.25u) at BetMGM (bet to -280)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (-145, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -160)
- St. Louis Cardinals / Los Angeles Angels, OVer 7.5 (+102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (Bet to -115)
- Washington Nationals / Chicago White Sox, Game 1 Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
