Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, May 28.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews
Dodgers vs. Mets (Game 1)
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -210 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +108 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +176 |
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
I showed value on Tylor Megill against Michael Grove and the Dodgers on Monday; we bet that line overnight at +132 (projected +105), and Mets steam pushed that price down to +115 consensus before the rainout.
I project Megill around +156 (39% implied) against Tyler Glasnow (3.09 ERA, 2.44 xERA, 26.8% K-BB%, 117 Stuff+). We'll find out if the market still likes Megill or merely dislikes Grove, who will start for the Dodgers in Game 2.
Through two appearances in 2024, Megill's fastball velocity (95.9 mph) is closer to his 2022 level (95.8 mph, 4.31 xERA, 19% K-BB%) than his 2023 form (95 mph, 5.85 xERA, 8.3% K-BB%). His pitch modeling metrics (113 Stuff+ vs. 90 in 2023 and 106 in 2022) have bounced back in a significant way after a discouraging 2023 season.
Megill also has a new pitch mix — incorporating a cutter (12.8%, 123 Stuff+) and a splitter (11%, 97 Stuff+) — that has led to greater diversity in velocity among his offerings. His fastball (120 Stuff+) playing like a plus pitch only makes his secondary offerings more effective.
The strikeout stuff is there. If Megill can harness his command and maintain this velocity level, his new mix has significant upside.
The Mets split Sunday's game between Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser and got rained out on Monday, which gave their key relievers a much-needed break after blowing late-game leads in three consecutive contests.
On the season, Mets relievers rank first in Stuff+ (111) but are tied for last in Location+ (96). Consequently, they rank first in strikeout rate (27.9%) and 28th in walk rate (11.7%). At the same time, pitching models rate that overall package (99 Pitching+, 23rd) as a below-average unit. The Mets have produced top-10 rankings in both K-BB% (fourth) and xFIP (ninth).
Hopefully, last week's meltdowns were a blip in an otherwise effective season. Regardless, I'm comfortable betting on a well-rested Mets bullpen before Game 1, but I would wait to see their Game 1 reliever usage before firing a bet on Game 2.
Bets: Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+170 or better)
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Red Sox vs. Orioles
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +134 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -158 |
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL)
Since returning from his IL stint for shoulder inflammation, Grayson Rodriguez has flashed his always-impressive stuff (113 Stuff+; 118 on the season) despite shaky command (89 Location+, with eight walks in 11 innings).
Amongst 134 starters who have tossed at least 30 innings this season, Rodriguez (3.97 xERA, 16.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+) ranks ninth in Stuff+. His average projected rest-of-season FIP (range of 3.50 to 3.71) is a third of a run lower than Bryan Bello's (range of 3.85 to 4.19).
Bello's league-average indicators (4.25 xERA, 13.7% K-BB% align with that projected difference despite solid pitch modeling metrics (104 Pitching+).
Bets: Orioles F5 Moneyline (-165 or better)
Cardinals vs. Reds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 9.5 104o / -128u | -102 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 9.5 104o / -128u | -116 |
Kyle Gibson (STL) vs. Andrew Abbott (CIN)
Andrew Abbott (2.68 ERA) continues to outpitch his subpar strikeout rate (18.8%; 27th percentile among pitchers) and questionable pitch modeling metrics (92 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 96 Pitching+).
Traditional ERA estimators like xFIP (4.47) and SIERA (4.37) view Abbott as a below-average talent. Scouts were never exceptionally high on him, either. Projections (projected FIP range of 4.26 to 4.59) also likely miss the mark, relying on those strikeout and walk numbers.
However, Statcast (2.72 xERA) recognizes Abbott's ability to suppress hard contact (30.6% hard-hit rate; 89th percentile) — and there's no denying his effectiveness over a decent MLB sample (career 3.46 ERA, 3.51 xERA across 31 starts).
With Paul Goldschmidt (career 168 wRC+ vs. lefties) and Nolan Arenado (136) anchoring their lineup, the Cardinals have smashed lefties for the past few seasons (112 wRC+, fifth vs. lefties from 2021-2023) while ranking closer to league average (101 wRC+) against right-handed pitching.
But they've fallen to 28th (76 wRC+) this season. Losing Willson Contreras (career 135 wRC+ vs. lefties; 116 vs. righties) hasn't helped, but the Cardinals look like they're past their competitive window.
The Cardinals' strength is their bullpen (second in xFIP, fifth in K-BB%, second in Pitching+). I'm only targeting a first-half bet against Kyle Gibson.
Gibson's velocity is down a tick, his indicators are moving in the wrong direction (5.54 xERA, 9.3% K-BB%, 94 Pitching+) and his Stuff+ rating has dropped by nine points (from 100 to 91) in his age-36 season.
Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (-128 or better)
Guardians vs. Rockies
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 10.5 -100o / -122u | -142 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 10.5 -100o / -122u | +120 |
Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
Triston McKenzie (4.76 xERA, 5.21 xFIP, 6.3% K-BB%) has been clinging on to a 3.44 ERA all season, thanks to a .219 BABIP and an 82.2% strand rate from the Guardians' elite defense.
Since last season, McKenzie has been pitching through a UCL sprain, which typically leads to Tommy John surgery. He elected to skip surgery, and his indicators have plummeted compared to his early career promise (2.96 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 19.7% K-BB% in 2022).
Moreover, McKenzie's fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph year over year (Stuff+ down from 108 to 98), and his command (91 Location+) has been abysmal. The fastball (.308 xBA, .626 xSLG) is getting crushed.
He still owns a pair of solid breaking balls (112 Stuff+ on his slider, 104 on the Curveball), but he may have issues commanding those pitches at Coors Field.
McKenzie has pitched like a replacement-level arm, whereas Ryan Feltner (5.07 ERA, 3.78 xERA, 4.01 xFIP, 13.3% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) has metrics comparable to a No. 3 starter or league-average pitcher.
Conditions should be favorable for both offenses — 74 degrees at first pitch, with 10 mph winds blowing out to left-center field. I set the total at 10.63 runs.
Bets: Rockies F5 Moneyline (+118 or better) | Over 10 (-115 or better)
Yankees vs. Angels
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -184 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | +154 |
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. Griffin Canning (LAA)
Like McKenzie, Griffin Canning (5.05 ERA, 5.05 xERA, 6.7% K-BB%, 87 Stuff+) may also be battling health issues (as he has for much of his career).
Canning's fastball is down 1.4 mph year over year (from 94.8 mph to 93.4 mph), and his Stuff+ rating is down nine points (96 last season).
He always posted better strikeouts and walk numbers (15.1% K-BB% career) than actual results (career 4.64 ERA) due to a severe home run problem (career 1.55 HR/9), which could be an issue against a red-hot Aaron Judge and a Yankees offense with an MLB-best 81 homers.
I'm high on Nestor Cortes (2.86 xERA, 18.2% K-BB%), who has regained his 2022 form (2.70 xERA) after a down 2023 season (4.97 ERA, 3.66 xERA).
There's a substantial difference between these two starting pitchers.
Bets: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-166 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, May 28
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- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-160, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -165)
- Baltimore Orioles / Boston Red Sox, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -115)
- Cincinnati Reds F5 (-122, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -128)
- Colorado Rockies F5 (+120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (Bet to +118)
- Colorado Rockies / Cleveland Guardians, Over 10 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
- Houston Astros / Seattle Mariners, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- New York Mets Game 1 (+180, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +170)
- New York Mets / Los Angeles Dodgers, Game 1, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- New York Mets / Los Angeles Dodgers, Game 2, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -118 or 8.5, +100)
- New York Yankees F5 (-165, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -166)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / Detroit Tigers, Over 7 (+105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -108)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Chicago White Sox, Over 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -120 or 8, -102)
