Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets and MLB predictions for Tuesday, September 10.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks & Previews for Tuesday, September 10
Sean Zerillo's MLB Braves vs Nationals Prediction & Pick
Mackenzie Gore (WSH) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)
Reynaldo Lopez posted a 1.88 ERA across 17 first-half starts for Atlanta and subsequently made his first All-Star appearance, but he has been an obvious regression candidate (2.04 ERA, 4.08 xERA, 3.59 xFIP, 4.17 botERA) for months with a career-high 87.3% strand rate (87.3% vs. 73.6% career) — the highest among qualified pitchers (min. 100 innings)
The rest of season projections show a wide range of outcomes for Lopez — between a 3.36 and 3.92 FIP — but his pitch modeling metrics (96 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+ vs. 125, 103 in 2023 and 118, 105 in 2022) and pitch velocity (95.5 mph fastball, -2.7 mph year over year) are both down noticeably as a starter compared to his bullpen form in prior seasons.
Mackenzie Gore (4.31 xERA, 3.89 xFIP, 3.83 botERA, 101 Pitching+) projects as a comparable pitcher to Lopez in terms of effectiveness (projected FIP range 3.83 to 4.10)
Atlanta has the superior bullpen (2nd in FIP, 2nd in K-BB% in the second half) compared to Washington (27th, 29th over the same span).
However, the Nationals have had the better offense of late, ranking 18th (100 wRC+) in the second half and since Dylan Crews' debut. The Braves rank 19th (101 wRC+) and 22nd (85 wRC+) over those same splits.
I was admittedly wrong about the 2024 Nationals. They developed and promoted their prospects much more aggressively than I had anticipated. They look like a potential darkhorse wild-card team for 2025, with an intact young offensive core (CJ Abrams, James Wood, Andres Chaparro, Luis Garcia, Dylan Crews, Kebert Ruiz) with an average age of 24.
Bets: Nationals F5 Moneyline (+119 or better) | Nationals Full-Game Moneyline (+129 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Mets vs Blue Jays MLB Prediction & Pick
David Peterson (NYM) vs. Chris Bassitt (TOR)
Projection systems view Chris Bassitt (4.37 xERA, 14.1% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 4.24 botERA) and David Peterson (4.84 xERA, 9.9% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.62 botERA) as relative equals; Bassitt has a projected rest-of-season FIP range between 3.99 and 4.10, while Peterson's ranges from 3.94 to 4.12.
New York has the better bullpen (7th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%, 24th in botERA) than Toronto (25th, 30th, 27th, respectively).
Still, despite the Mets' second-half surge, the Blue Jays have had the better offense lately, ranking 4th with a 114 wRC+ since the All-Star break, compared to the 11th-place Mets (108 wRC+). Moreover, the gap has grown over the past thirty days (117 vs. 106 wRC+)
Bets: Blue Jays Full-Game Moneyline (+107 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Orioles vs Red Sox Best Bet
Albert Suarez (BAL) vs. Kutter Crawford (BOS)
The Red Sox have a chance to play spoiler in the AL East amid seven consecutive games against the Orioles and Yankees.
Boston should have a clear starting pitching advantage for Tuesday with Kutter Crawford (3.78 xERA, 4.43 xFIP, 16% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.57 botERA) facing Albert Suarez (4.16 xERA, 4.60 xFIP, 10.4% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.60 botERA).
While Crawford's and Suarez's 2024 indicators are somewhat similar, the difference in talent and upside is reflected by the differential in their pitch modeling metrics.
Suarez has below-average command without a single above-average pitch in his arsenal.
Conversely, Crawford has both plus stuff (107 Stuff+) and command (105 Location+) over a six-pitch arsenal that contains three potentially above-average offerings (113 Stuff+ Cutter, 110 Four-Seamer, 109 Slider).
Baltimore has struggled offensively (17th with a 98 wRC+ over the past 30 days) and played to a sub-.500 record (24-25) in the second half. Given their prospect depth, I didn't expect Livan Soto and Emmanuel Rivera to get key plate appearances at second and third base for the Orioles in September.
Bets: Red Sox F5 Moneyline (-120 or better) | Red Sox Full-Game Moneyline (-110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Padres vs Mariners MLB Best Bet
Yu Darvish (SDP) vs. George Kirby (SEA)
After over a three-month absence, Yu Darvish returned to the Padres' rotation in decent form last Saturday while posting encouraging velocity figures (94.4 mph vs. 94 on the season) alongside spotty command (4.50 botERA, 90 Location+ vs. 102, 4.09 on the season).
Darvish only lasted 2 2/3 innings in that start and seemingly needs to stretch his arm back after three months on the shelf, so I remain worried about his command and effectiveness while extending out for multiple turns against opposing batting orders.
Regardless, I would project George Kirby (projected FIP range of 3.26 to 3.52) as a superior pitcher to current Yu Darvish (projected FIP range of 3.88 to 4.16).
Kirby has the edge over Darvish in virtually every category, including xERA (3.51 vs. 3.67), xFIP (3.56 vs. 3.93), botERA (3.25 vs. 4.09), K-BB% (20.5% vs. 16.5%), and Pitching+ (106 vs. 102 ).
Darvish's current levels: 3.67 xERA, 3.93 xFIP, 4.09 botERA, 16.5% K-BB%, and 102 Pithcing+ for comparison.
Bets: Mariners F5 Moneyline (-118 or better) | Mariners Full-Game Moneyline (-105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 10
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- Boston Red Sox F5 (-115, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -120)
- Boston Red Sox (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Chicago White Sox F5 (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +170)
- MinnesotaTwins F5 (-220, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -130)
- San Francisco Giants (+110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (-103, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -118)
- Seattle Mariners (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
- Texas Rangers (+155, 0.5u; bet to +148)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +107)
- Washington Nationals F5 (+127, 0.25u; small to +119)
- Washington Nationals (+138, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +129)
