Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, May 27.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Twins vs Rays, Reds vs Royals, White Sox vs Mets, and Marlins vs Padres. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, May 27
Twins vs Rays
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -125 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +105 |
RHP Joe Ryan (MIN) vs RHP Taj Bradley (TBR)
The weather should be hitter-friendly in Tampa on Tuesday, with 88-degree temperatures (a real feel of 95 degrees) and slight winds blowing toward the outfield.
Totals at Steinbrenner Field are heavily influenced by wind and weather, as Overs are 8-8-2 with the wind heading out and 5-11-1 otherwise.
The Park Factors — albeit in a limited sample — boost homers (+21%) while suppressing doubles (-21%) and triples (-46%). Yankee Stadium, with the exact dimensions, has a similar effect, but the weather plays a far more significant role in Tampa.
Both starting pitchers have home run problems. Taj Bradley has allowed 1.59 HR/9 in his career, while Joe Ryan has allowed 1.42.
That said, Bradley has the higher ground-ball rate (45%) and has been quite unlucky this season, with a 4.61 ERA and a 3.48 xERA.
Additionally, the Rays have the better offense, and they’ve improved mightily since Josh Lowe returned on May 15th — he’s on pace for a career-high .374 xwOBA behind a career-low strikeout rate (12%).
The Rays are also much better on the basepaths — keep an eye on Chandler Simpson, who ranks 17th among all MLB players in BSR across just 115 plate appearances — and they have the better defense.
Meanwhile, the Twins are still without Byron Buxton, who is elite running the bases (ranking third among all MLB players in BSR) and elite on defense (+3 DRS, +4 OAA).
Finally, the Rays have the better bullpen.
I project the Rays ML at -107, and I project the total at 9.05.
Pick: Rays ML (+108 | Play to +101) | Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -115)
White Sox vs Mets
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8 -112o / -108u | +225 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 8 -112o / -108u | -278 |
RHP Jonathan Cannon (CWS) vs RHP Tylor Megill (NYM)
Tylor Megill is breaking out again (3.66 xERA, 20.2% K-BB, 110 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+, 3.24 botERA).
He’s consolidated his arsenal by cutting his cutter and splitter in favor of a sinker. He’s also been throwing his fastball less in recent outings in favor of a changeup and curveball.
Meanwhile, the White Sox offense is lifeless on the road (75 wRC+, .616 OPS).
Jonathan Cannon is an effective starting pitcher (4.09 xERA, 10.5% K-BB, 100 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 3.92 botERA) who is out-pitching his projections (4.52-to-4.97 FIP range).
He shows solid command and a deep arsenal. That said, he doesn’t throw his fastball (16% usage, 115 Stuff+) or slider (14% usage, 120 Stuff+) as much as he should.
Luckily for Cannon, the Mets' offense has hit a cold stretch over the past two weeks (75 wRC+).
I’m concerned about the White Sox bullpen (4.75 xFIP, 10.1% K-BB rate over the past month), but I still project the total at just 7.15.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 | Play to 7.5 -108)
Reds vs Royals
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8 -115o / -105u | -125 |
RHP Brady Singer (CIN) vs LHP Daniel Lynch (KCR)
We’re expecting pitcher-friendly weather (65 degrees, seven-MPH breezes in from left-center field), and we’re getting a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ron Kulpa (298-220-26 to the Under, 57.5%, 10.4% ROI).
The Royals are tossing a bullpen game behind Daniel Lynch (1.57 ERA, 4.11 xERA). He’s made 55 starts in 89 career appearances, but he’s never thrown more than 40 pitches in any of them. Also, he threw 21 pitches on Saturday.
Behind Lynch, I expect some combination of Evan Sisk, Taylor Clarke, Angel Zerpa, Stephen Cruz, and Jonathan Bowlan to build a bridge to the seventh inning, where John Schreiber (3.27 xERA), Lucas Erceg (3.22 xERA) and Carlos Estevez (3.63 xERA) can lock down the final innings. That’s basically what happened in Lynch’s last start.
This is a Brady Singer revenge game. He’s not performing well (4.64 xERA) with the smaller zone, boasting a career-low strikeout-to-walk rate (10.9%) while giving up more barrels than ever (11.8%).
The Royals are a bad offense (82 wRC+), but their bullpen game plan should keep the Reds off-balance and prevent runs.
I project the Royals ML at -130 and the total at 7.76.
Pick: Royals ML (-104 | Play to -120) | Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to 8 -105)
Marlins vs Padres
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +136 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -105o / -115u | -162 |
RHP Max Meyer (MIA) vs RHP Stephen Kolek (SDP)
While Stephen Kolek’s changeup isn’t grading out as well as last year, he still has a plus sinker and slider that’s fueling his 3.30 xERA. He boasts a league-average strikeout minus walk rate, but he’s elite at forcing ground balls (55% for his career).
