Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, July 22.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Red Sox vs. Phillies, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Giants vs. Braves, and Twins vs. Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, July 22
Red Sox vs. Phillies
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -109o / -111u | +167 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 8.5 -109o / -111u | -205 |
RHP Richard Fitts (BOS) vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
Christopher Sanchez is an elite starting pitcher (2.99 xERA, 2.91 xFIP), and the Red Sox are much worse against left-handed pitching.
Richard Fitts is an advanced pitching model darling (104 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA). Still, the results aren’t quite there (4.81 xERA, career 4.60 xFIP), and he’s struggled to handle hard contact (95th percentile chase rate, 15th percentile barrel rate allowed).
It’s a limited sample size (55 career games), but umpire Edwin Jimenez projects as pitcher-friendly (+1.5% K-BB against MLB average).
We have neutral weather in Philly on Tuesday, and I ultimately project 7.98 runs for this matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -189 | 9 -110o / -110u | +108 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 9 -110o / -110u | -131 |
RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (TOR)
I have bet on the Jays in four of their five games against the Yankees in Toronto, but I’m finally betting the other side in this head-to-head matchup.
Cam Schlittler has big-time stuff (107 Stuff+, 3.66 botERA). He managed 10 whiffs and 15 called strikes in his MLB debut. FIP projections place him in the 4.37 range (4.17-to-4.75 range), but I think he will overperform — botERA tends to be a more accurate indicator of talent level.
Max Scherzer is about to turn 41, and he’s continued his four-year decline in xERA and Stuff+. His velocity is up this year compared to last year, but he’s still riding a 4.87 FIP with projections in the 3.98-to-4.40 range.
I typically would give the bullpen advantage to Toronto, but the Jays have used their top three relievers in three of the past four days, while the Yankees’ bullpen is fully rested.
I project the Yankees ML at -109, and 8.24 runs for the game.
Pick: Yankees ML (+110 | Play to +100) & Under 9 (-110 | Play to -120)
Giants vs. Braves
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 9.5 -106o / -115u | -108 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9.5 -106o / -115u | -112 |
RHP Landen Roupp (SFG) vs. RHP Davis Daniel (ATL)
Austin Riley returns from the IL, and I strongly prefer the Atlanta position players in this series. The Braves are the healthiest they have been all season, and they’ve been hot (107 wRC+ over their past 10 games, the only ones with Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jurickson Profar in the lineup).
Meanwhile, the Giants have posted an 85 wRC+ since trading for Rafael Devers, who is struggling (84 wRC+) with an injury. His long-term contract (through 2033) already appears to be an albatross — don’t forget that he’s had double shoulder injuries over the past year.
Landen Roupp (4.04 xERA, 3.99 xFIP, 11.3% K-BB, 103 Pitching+, 3.80 botERA) has a higher floor than Davis Daniel (career 4.68 xFIP, 12.1% K-BB), but nothing in Daniel’s arsenal grades particularly well (95 Stuff+ slider, 85 Stuff+ splitter, 74 Stuff+ fastball).
These are two comparable bullpens, but I give the slight edge to the Braves, and I ultimately project Atlanta’s ML at -115.
Pick: Braves ML (-102 | Play to -110)
Twins vs. Dodgers
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -110o / -111u | +182 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -110o / -111u | -226 |
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
Doug Eddings is a pitcher-friendly umpire (career 320-276-34 to the Under for a +3% ROI).
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an elite starting pitcher, and he’s surprisingly better after the first time through the order — he tends to have an early home-run problem before settling in. Meanwhile, the Twins are in their worse offensive split.
These are two borderline-elite bullpens, and the Dodgers lineup is badly slumping (65 wRC+ over the past two weeks), so I project 7.66 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to 8 -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 22
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- Yankees ML (+110 | Play to +100)
- Braves ML (-102 | Play to -110)
- Red Sox vs. Phillies Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays Under 9 (-110 | Play to -120)
- Twins vs. Dodgers Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to 8 -105)
