Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, May 8.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews (May 8)
Angels vs. Pirates
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8.5 +100o/ -122u | +1.5 -200 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 8.5 +100o/ -122u | -1.5 +164 |
Jose Soriano (LAA) vs. Martin Perez (PIT)
PNC Park has played as a league-average park (100 Park Factor, per Statcast) over the last three seasons and is slightly above average (102 Park Factor) if you use the sample from 2021-2023.
Conditions should be favorable for both offenses on Wednesday afternoon with 75 degrees projected at first pitch and 8-9 mph winds blowing out to left field. I set the total for this series finale at 8.8 runs.
Martin Perez (3.15 ERA, 5.34 xERA, 4.28 xFIP) is allowing more hard contact (47.6% vs. 35.3% career) than ever before with his velocity at its lowest point since 2014. Pitch modeling metrics (74 Stuff+) say that he's the same pitcher as last season (4.90 xERA, 4.96 xFIP), and I expect his ERA to rise into the mid-fours (4.45 in 2023, 4.40 career) — or higher — as the season progresses.
Jose Soriano has an excellent fastball (105 Stuff+) and slider (145 Stuff+) but has struggled with command. There's upside in his profile, but the average output thus far is a below-average starter (8.9% K-BB%, 4.91 xERA). However, I still project Soriano as a superior pitcher to Perez.
Bet: Over 8 or Over 8.5 (-102 or better)
Mets vs. Cardinals
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 7.5 -115o/ -105u | +1.5 -162 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +134 |
Jose Quintana (NYM) vs. Sonny Gray (STL)
After a late start to the season with a hamstring injury, Sonny Gray shows career-best data points through five starts. Gray's 28.9% K-BB% (17% in 2023 and 15.2% career), 33.3% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate, 12.8% swinging-strike rate and 31.8% called strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) each represents a career best. And his fastball velocity (93.3 mph) is at its highest point since the 2020 season — the only time he posted a strikeout rate north of 30% in his career.
Conversely, Jose Quintana is showing career-worst indicators through seven starts, including the same categories as Gray —his 5.5% K-BB% (11.3% in 2023, 13.9% career), 90 mph fastball, 15.3% strikeout rate and 7.1% swinging strike rate — are all career lows.
The total for this matchup opened at 8 and dropped to 7.5; my projection is closer to 8.25. Gray's gains this season are offset by Quintana's decline. The weather (78 degrees at first pitch) should also be favorable for run scoring.
The Mets' middle- and long-reliever group is also a bit overworked so Quintana could be left out there to eat innings — even before an off day for the Mets — if he falls behind early.
Bet: Over 7.5 (-118) or Over 8 (+100 or better)
Cubs vs. Padres
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-126 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 +108 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+108 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 -126 |
Dylan Cease (SD) vs. Hayden Wesneski (CHC)
Dylan Cease looks rejuvenated since joining a competitive Padres team. His fastball velocity (96.8 mph) is up a tick relative to last season (95.6 mph) and back in line with his career average (96.5 mph). He's also throwing his slider harder (87.5 mph) and more frequently (41.2%) than ever in his career.
In 2023, Cease permitted a .217 xBA and .339 xSLG on his slider. Those numbers have improved to .167 and .302, respectively, this season.
I have always been high on Cease's counterpart, Hayden Wesneski. Like Cease, Wesneski spams a slider (39.8% usage in 2024) and owns pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 102 Pitching in 2023) and indicators (4.08 xFIP and a 15.3% K-BB) that are all better than the MLB average through 139 career innings.
I set this total at 7.9. Temperatures are warm in Chicago (76 degrees at first pitch), but the wind is blowing in slightly (4-6 mph from right field) at Wrigley Field.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-113 or better)
Red Sox vs. Braves
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+168 | 9 +100o/ -122u | +1.5 -125 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 9 +100o/ -122u | -1.5 +104 |
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs. Chris Sale (ATL)
Nick Pivetta is returning from a right elbow flexor strain on Wednesday, and he wasn't particularly sharp in his Minor-League tuneup in Triple-A (3 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 5 K).
Pivetta has pitched among the elite tier of starters since discovering his sweeper in June 2023. Since last July, 113 pitchers have thrown at least 80 innings — Pivetta paces that group with a 35.3% strikeout rate, ahead of Freddy Peralta (35.2%), Spencer Strider (34.2%), Tarik Skubal (32.8%) and Tyler Glasnow (32.6%).
Pivetta's 29.3% K-BB% over that span is a significant improvement over his career average (16.6%) and previous career high (19.7% in 2018). He looked like an ace until the elbow injury, but I'm a bit cautious and likely avoiding a larger wager on this total because I question his current form.
As for Chris Sale (2.81 xERA, 2.73 xFIP, 24.1% K-BB%), he gets a chance to beat his old team.
Sale looks as good as ever, sitting on a career-best 34% CSW% and 15.4% whiff rate, and he's seen a velocity bump relative to last season.
I set this total at 8.16. The temperatures are warm in Atlanta (85 degrees at first pitch), but the wind is blowing in slightly (6-8 mph) from right field.
Bet: Under 9 or Under 8.5 (-103 or better)
Mariners vs. Twins
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 7.5 -108o/ -112u | -1.5 +138 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 -108o/ -112u | +1.5 -166 |
George Kirby (SEA) vs. Chris Paddack (MIN)
George Kirby undoubtedly ranks among the elite tier of starting pitchers, with the best command (2.5% walk rate since last season; 19 walks in 229 innings) since prime Zack Greinke and four above-average pitches, according to Stuff+.
Kirby has been a bit unlucky this season — .315 BABIP and a 65% strand rate — and I expect him to carry an ERA in the low threes (2.85 xERA, 3.10 xFIP) over the remainder of the season.
Chris Paddack (4.78 ERA, 4.59 xERA) is still working his way back into form nearly two years after Tommy John surgery.
Signs under the hood are encouraging. Paddack's velocity (93.9 mph) is back in line with his career average (94.2 mph) — after dipping before his injury — and his command (a 4.9% walk rate is on the nose with his career mark), which is typically the last skill to return post-TJ, is intact.
Paddack is mixing in a slider (17% usage rate) alongside his fastball, changeup and curveball. The slider doesn't grade out well (77 Stuff+) and has gotten crushed (.568 xSLG), but Paddack also threw it 35% of the time in his last start— his most oft-selected pitch – tossing six shutout innings.
Perhaps he's getting more comfortable with it? In that outing, the slider generated five whiffs and six called strikes (42% CSW%).
I like Paddack more than the betting market; his stuff isn't as good as Kirby's, but excellent command gives both pitchers a high floor.
The wind at Target Field (8-11 mph, blowing in from left field) should benefit both starters.
Minnesota should have the bullpen advantage in this matchup as Seattle deployed six relievers on Tuesday in a wild affair.
Bets: Twins Full-Game Moneyline (-103 or better) | F5 Under 4.5 (-150) or Under 4 (-110 or better) | Under 7.5 (-118) or Under 7 (+100 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, May 8
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App.
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-190, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -195)
- Boston Red Sox / Atlanta Braves, Under 9 (-114, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -103)
- Houston Astros / New York Yankees, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 9, -110)
- Los Angeles Angels / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to 8.5, -102)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+122, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +115)
- Minnesota Twins (+105, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -103)
- Minnesota Twins / Seattle Mariners, F5 Under 4.5 (-135, Flat Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -150 or 4, -110)
- Minnesota Twins / Seattle Mariners, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 7, +100)
- New York Mets / St. Louis Cardinals, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
- San Diego Padres / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -113)
- Texas Rangers Game 2 F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -130)
