Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, June 4.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview the Angels vs. Red Sox, Astros vs. Pirates, Phillies vs. Blue Jays and Padres vs. Giants. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Wednesday, June 4
Angels vs. Red Sox
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
(RHP) Jose Soriano (LAA) vs. (RHP) Lucas Giolito (BOS)
This matchup, which starts at 1:35 p.m. ET, will have very hitter-friendly weather (85 degrees with 8-9 mph winds blowing out).
Lucas Giolito takes the hill for Boston post-peak after Tommy John surgery. He has a 5.38 xERA, 12% K-BB%, 24.4% CSW% and an 88 Stuff+ this season compared to his 2021 numbers of 3.27 xERA, 20.7% K-BB%, 29.8% CSW% and 107 Stuff+.
Meanwhile, on the Angels' side, Jose Soriano has a career-best ground-ball percentage of 66.2% this season, but he has thin margins with a career-low 5.1% K-BB%.
His Stuff+ is down from 107 to 92 year-over-year, his botERA is up from 4.30 to 4.46 and his average velocity across his arsenal is down from 94.3 to 92.8 since 2024.
Also favoring this over, the Angels' bullpen is exhausted. They used five relief pitchers in each of the first two games in Boston.
Kenley Jansen, Hector Neris and Reid Detmers pitched in back-to-back games, Connor Brogdon had three appearances in four days, Brock Burke had two appearances (48 pitches) in less than three days, Ryan Zeferjahn pitched three of five days and Hunter Strickland posted 46 pitches in a back-to-back on Sunday and Monday.
The Angels also have no off-day until next Thursday, which means they desperately need length out of Soriano.
Boston's bullpen is much more well-rested and has no notable usage concerns.
Also, the projected current Boston lineup is better versus right-handed pitching (projected 100 wRC+) than left-handed pitching (97). The Red Sox have faced a southpaw starting pitcher over the last two days.
Ultimately, I'm projecting 10.53 runs, so I'll bet the over to -110.
Pick: Over 10
Astros vs. Pirates
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 9 -102o / -118u | -130 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 9 -102o / -118u | +110 |
(RHP) Ryan Gusto (HOU) vs. (RHP) Mike Burrows (PIT)
Ryan Gusto (4.36 xERA, 12.9% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 3.95 botERA) is a pitcher I bet on in April, but he's struggled of late (8.25 ERA, 6.56 xFIP in May; 12 IP, 17 H, 14 R, 13 BB, 13 K). His botERA climbed from 3.51 to 4.59 and his Pitching+ is down from 100 to 91 compared to April.
Gusto's rest-of-the-season FIP projections are between 4.34 and 4.67, averaging 4.56. He has a plus fastball (106 Stuff+) and slider (111), but he had a 14% K-BB% in the minors.
On the flip side, this is the third-career start for Mike Burrows (5.48 xERA, 2.6% K-BB%, 96 Stuff+, 4.30 botERA). His rest-of-the-season FIP projections are between 4.27 and 4.84, averaging 4.46, which is slightly better than Gusto.
He has a ball fastball (82 Stuff+), but he does have a plus changeup (108) and slider (101) with a useful curve (97). He improved his strikeout percentage in Triple-A by 5% year-over-year (up to an excellent 31.5%).
Houston's bullpen has better season-long numbers, but Pittsburgh's has been better since May 1 (17th vs. 24th in xFIP, although Houston has the better K-BB% over that span).
On offense, Houston is fourth in wRC+ (117) since losing Yordan Alvarez in early May. Pittsburgh is 28th (81 wRC+) over that same span and would likely need a lower-scoring game to win.
Meanwhile, on defense, defensive runs saved prefers Pittsburgh (sixth, +23), versus 19th on the Houston side (+4). Outs above average prefers Houston (2nd vs. 8th).
I'm taking the Pirates on the moneyline, with my projections sitting at Astros -102.
Pick: Pirates ML +120 (Play to +110)
Phillies vs. Blue Jays
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 9 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -115o / -105u | -115 |
(RHP) Mick Abel (PHI) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (TOR)
The dome has been open regularly in Toronto as of late, as it was on Tuesday (72 degrees, 11 mph winds out to right field). It should be open again on Wednesday (77 degrees, 12 mph winds out to right field).
That means offense will continue to boom at the Rogers Centre like it has for all of 2025. In fact, teams are +4% in hits, +14% in scoring (fifth in the MLB) and +46% in home runs (second in the MLB) this season.
For Wednesday, the projected total is 8.61 with the roof closed but 10.05 with the roof open. Thus, if the roof is open, bet the over.
To dive a little deeper, Jose Berrios continues to outpreform his xERA by a full run for the Jays.
In 2025, he has a 3.86 ERA and 4.63 xERA, while in 2024, he had a 2.60 ERA and 4.74 xERA. Go back to 2023 and Berrios had a 3.65 ERA and 4.51 xERA.
He's maintained a strand rate greater than 80% the past two years (74% for his career), and he has a career-low 12.6 K-BB% and 91 Stuff+.
Meanwhile, Mick Abel (111 Stuff+, 2.32 botERA) was incredible in his MLB debut vs. the Pirates (6 IP, five hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, nine strikeouts) on May 18.
He has four plus offerings (108 Stuff+ fastball, 129 curve, 110 slider, 103 sinker), even with command concerns (11% BB%, 17.2 K-BB%) in Triple-A.
That shouldn't be enough to impact this total, though, so bet the over, especially with an open roof.
Pick: Over 9
Padres vs. Giants
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -120o / 100u | -115 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7 -120o / 100u | -105 |
(RHP) Nick Pivetta (SD) vs. (LHP) Kyle Harrison (SF)
Kyle Harrison is built for Oracle Park, which is -19% (29th) for home runs since 2023.
