We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Brandon Williamson More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Kicking off Friday's slate is an NL Central matchup between the third-place Cincinnati Reds and first-place Milwaukee Brewers. Slated to take the mound for Cincinnati is left-hander Brandon Williamson, who is off to a tough start in his career.
This season, he possesses a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. However, he could still be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department as he boasts a 19 K% and 24.8 Whiff%.
Those are not the strongest punch-out metrics in the world, but they are certainly good enough to take advantage of a poor Brewers lineup. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Milwaukee ranks last in the league in K%.
Looking at Friday's projected lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22% this year.
Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Williamson routinely pumps his fastball and cutter to set up his slider and changeup, two pitches which each boast a Whiff% north of 26%.
Matt McLain Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
We are also going to fade a couple of Cincinnati hitters in this contest as right-hander Corbin Burnes is slated to take the rubber for Milwaukee. Off to a deceptively solid start to the campaign once again, Burnes is 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
While those are certainly not the numbers one would expect from the former Cy Young winner, he has been strong all year if you take away his poor outing against the stacked Houston Astros. Currently, Burnes ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
The first Reds hitter to fade in this contest is Matt McLain, who has stayed below this number in each of his past three games. While McLain has had an overall tremendous start to his career, it is a small sample size with just 15 games under his belt.
Additionally, the 2021 first rounder's underlying metrics suggest massive regression is looming. While he boasts a .354 BA and .523 SLG, he possesses a .268 xBA and .395 xSLG.
I can think of no better time for those numbers to even out than his first outing against Burnes.
Jonathan India Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The other Cincinnati hitter to fade in this contest is Jonathan India. Like McLain, India has stayed below this number in each of his past three contests.
While I am more confident in India to continue his strong season than McLain, it likely is not going to come against Burnes. Through seven career plate appearances against the right-hander, he possesses a mere .200 BA, .200 SLG and .323 wOBA.
There is some solid correlation in this play, considering that McLain is most likely going to hit one spot ahead of India in the batting order on Friday evening. If Burnes can keep McLain off base, then it will be difficult for India to surpass this number with nobody to hit in.
